I can see 300 carries for 4.3 yards per carry.

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'02

You realize if Fournette were to have 300+ attempts that he would have more single season attempts than everyone else in the league save 2 players from the last two years? Every running back in the NFL who has rushed for more than 300+ attempts in a season has lead the league in rushing except when there are multiple 300+ attempt rushers for the last 10+ years. Unless you are expecting him to put up Elliott type numbers this season, its not even remotely plausible that he breaks 300.

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If he stays healthy, I could see him getting around 250-260 carries on the year. 300 would be unwise, IMO.

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You realize if Fournette were to have 300+ attempts that he would have more single season attempts than everyone else in the league save 2 players from the last two years?  Every running back in the NFL who has rushed for more than 300+ attempts in a season has lead the league in rushing except when there are multiple 300+ attempt rushers for the last 10+ years.  Unless you are expecting him to put up Elliott type numbers this season, its not even remotely plausible that he breaks 300.

No... I wasn't quite aware of all that. 

Interesting to note though, in 2003, Fred Taylor had 345 carries averaging 4.6 ypc, and then in 2011, Jones-Drew had 343 carries averaging  4.7 ypc.  Those were their best seasons respectively and I'm not suggesting 4net will compare as a rookie, but it shows it can happen.

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'02

It can happen, but it is becoming increasingly rare and you have to be incredibly successful running the ball.

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As they say in NYC, facts son, facts. Nice name as well and welcome. Glad to have Fournette on board, looking forward to his game.

Thanks for the nice welcome guys.  Cheers.

Just curious, do you have any ties to Jax or is your fandom mostly a result of us playing in London so much?

I got my undergrad in Jacksonville mate; left the U.K. after high school. Been in the States since then.

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Success is a journey, not a destination.  Go all out Mighty Jaguars.

I think around 200 carries and 600-800 yards is realistic, 3-4 ypc with 5-6 TDs. I don't see us scoring much this year. I imagine somewhere between 12-17 ppg as an offense. I think our line will struggle all year, but LF can push the pile so I don't expect his ypc to suffer too much.

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My guess would be 180 carries for 700 yards and 7 touchdowns.

180 carries?  This team wants to run the football.  I'm thinking around 300 carries

I actually think it will probably be closer to 180 also. Morrone doesn't seem to understand that Ivory isn't any good anymore, and I believe he will try to protect Fornette. If Ivory keeps running like he has in the preseason (i.e. making a bad situation worse), and 4nette really starts to take off, you may see an Adrien Peterson kind of thing where the carries start going way up at the end of the year (so maybe 250 in that scenario). 

I just don't think they are gonna start out riding him hard, appears they are trying to be cautious with him.

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Yes, it's improvement, but it's Blaine Gabbert 2012 level improvement. - Pirkster

http://youtu.be/ouGM3NWpjxk The Home Hypnotist!

http://youtu.be/XQRFkn0Ly3A Media on the Brain Link!
 

Peyton must store oxygen in that forehead of his. No way I'd still be alive after all that choking.

 

My guess would be 180 carries for 700 yards and 7 touchdowns.

there is no way he only has 180 carries this year.. no. way.

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I'm saying 250 carries for just barely breaking 1000 yards... 8 rushing tds... 40 catches for 350 yards and 1 more TD

he will get just about 4.0 ypc having to deal with a crappy line, they will try to get him 1000 in that last game. To get 1000 he needs just over 63 ypg if he plays in every game, I think its doable even behind this line

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Number wise for me I think he'll be looking at 275 carries give or take this year if he doesn't miss any playing time which would put him at 17 carriers per game. And I think they'll try getting him involved in the passing game a few times this year which could put up to potentially 20 touches per game.

Average wise though I just don't see it being a good year for him because of this offensive line. We haven't seen him at all now since New England because of his foot injury. Whether it's precautionary or not it's still concerning to me. I really don't see him finishing the year with all sixteen starts credited to his name.

Still sticking to my guns on this. I see him having a Todd Gurley 2016 type season as a rookie. I see him struggling heavily. Probably getting maybe 3.5 - 3.6 YPC. That would put him just south of 1,000 yards on the ground if, again, he manages to play a full season. When you add in a few catches here and there he'll probably eclipse 1,000 yards in all purpose.

I just think when you also take a look at the schedule. We're playing an NFC West this year that's stacked defensively. We play the tinhorns twice. The AFC North has a good mix of offense and defense. And if we get put in a hole early we'll abandon the running game anyway.

I am just being cautious as a fan this year. This offensive line is pretty damn pathetic in the run blocking department. They improved a little bit in pass protection last year but they've always had issues creating lanes for the ground game now as far back as 2012 when Mularkey was the coach. We haven't had a single runner crack 1,000 yards on the ground since MJD in 2011. We've lost our identity as a football team.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Not going to see more than 200 carries, 6 TDs, and 825 yards. He has a couple things to do to get over them numbers and that is to remain healthy, steal carries from the other RBs, and have good vision behind a weak line. No way he comes close to 1000 yard season.

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thinking he will struggle with our offensive line and QB is perfectly understandable.... but thinking he is going to have a hard time taking most of the carries is absolute crazy talk

Yeldon is the definition of just a guy, which saddens me because his college tape was really good, and Ivory is a bum and when he isn't a bum, he's hurt

The only thing stopping Fournette from massive carry amounts is injury and game flow, not the other RB's on the team

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If he stays healthy, 1000 yards. That's all I ask from a Top 5 pick Running back.

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 This was also the issue with Alabama the past couple years. He didn't really have much room to run as it was because Alabama was practically living in the backfield, but when he did, he'd run right into the teeth of the Alabama defense. 


Uh,,, that's just great.  ^That sums up what we expect to see all season from the Jags' O-line, opposing defenses "practically living in the backfield". 

And I really hope that he doesn't "run right into the teeth of the defense when he finally does find the room to run."

I'm with a few othe posters here. I don't expect too much from LF this season. The -O-line stinks, the QB is an issue, and he'll be splitting carries. 

Hope I'm wrong.

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I expect a RB that will show his frustration by game 6, already knowing the season is a wash... he won't want to take a pounding just to finish the season 5-11... a minor injury will give him reprieve on the sideline for the last half of the season.

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I ain't no monkey... I'm an ape.

 This was also the issue with Alabama the past couple years. He didn't really have much room to run as it was because Alabama was practically living in the backfield, but when he did, he'd run right into the teeth of the Alabama defense. 


Uh,,, that's just great.  ^That sums up what we expect to see all season from the Jags' O-line, opposing defenses "practically living in the backfield". 

And I really hope that he doesn't "run right into the teeth of the defense when he finally does find the room to run."

I'm with a few othe posters here. I don't expect too much from LF this season. The -O-line stinks, the QB is an issue, and he'll be splitting carries. 

Hope I'm wrong.

LMAO, he will NOT be splitting carries... we have stupid coaches and front office, but not THAT stupid

he was taken with the 4th overall pick for a reason, he was held out with a minor toe injury for a reason.  He is going to be a work horse back

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My guess would be 180 carries for 700 yards and 7 touchdowns.

there is no way he only has 180 carries this year.. no. way.

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I'm saying 250 carries for just barely breaking 1000 yards... 8 rushing tds... 40 catches for 350 yards and 1 more TD

he will get just about 4.0 ypc having to deal with a crappy line, they will try to get him 1000 in that last game.  To get 1000 he needs just over 63 ypg if he plays in every game, I think its doable even behind this line

At 250 carries he'll need at least 5.0 ypc to set a new Jaguars rookie rushing record. 

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'02

LMAO, he will NOT be splitting carries... we have stupid coaches and front office, but not THAT stupid

he was taken with the 4th overall pick for a reason, he was held out with a minor toe injury for a reason.  He is going to be a work horse back

I want to believe this but I don't trust our coaching and think at least for the first few games we see him come out every 3rd series or so.  I especially see this as true if he shows any weakness pass blocking or our Oline continues to be really bad.  I do think that he will end up with around 250 caries if he stays healthy.  

I would love to be wrong and see our Oline give him some help and have him come out and be really effective but I have serious concerns about our offense this year.

I would see anything over 800yrds rushing and 5+ rushing tds as a big success with the way we have looked so far.

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255 carries at 3.7 YPC = 943 on the ground

Add 40 catches at 6.5 YPC =260 receiving

That's 1203 APY

I think he'll come close to that.

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I'm hoping for 1100 yards and 8 to 10 touchdowns. If he's as good as most media make him out to be that's a fair goal In my eyes.

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