One thing I have learned in the 17 or so years I have been posting here is that posters come and go.  While some quality posters have left the board during that time, I am not talking about a particular poster.

Nevertheless, there are, for want of better phrasing, philosophical  absences that normally arise ghis time of year that have been nowhere to be found in my readings of the boards.  I have yet to see anyone arguing for BAP this year.  I also see nobody advocating drafting defense anywhere in the first three rounds, especially in the first.

On its face, the lack of BAP or defensive advocacy is understandable.  Offense is clearly the deficient side, with needs at every area of the offense.  It is close to universal truth that Bortles is gone, and Kessler failed miserably in his stint.  The team was so disappointed in Fournette, TC publicly trashed him and tried to rescind his bonus, an act that is still being decided by the league and NFLPA.  Hyde was a disappointment as a midseason replacement for Fournette.  Yeldon and Grant are likely gone in free agency.  We have no true answer at WR.  Most are unknowns for various reasons.  TE is completely devoid of talent, especially that defenses have to respect.  The offensive line could have to replace the entire right side, just months after injuries depleted the available talent on the o line to ridiculously low levels.

However, the lack of pure BAP or defensive advocacy is not fully understood upon closer scrutiny.   The experts on NFL Network,  ESPN a d various internet sites are virtually unanimous in thinking this is a defensive heavy draft.  It is not out of the question to see the top five picks become a defensive monopoly.   Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network's new lead draft analyst, said 21 of 32 possible first round draft picks will be on the defensive side of the ball.  Furthermore,  it's not as if last year's defense was the reincarnation of the '85 Bears, or for that matter, the '17 Jaguars.  There were several performances that left questions regarding how good the defense is, including embarrassing efforts against Dallas and the second Tennessee game.  The run defense left a lot to be desired, and the pass rush was not as strong.  The same cap concerns that led to last year's draft strategy still loom over this team, which takes on added significance when dealing with the contracts of Ramsey, Jack, and Ngakoue.  Finally, age could soon become a factor with Calais Campbell, Gipson, and Dareus.  There seems plenty of justification for going defense early under a BAP and needs analysis, yet few seem to be advancing those arguments this year.

Why do you think that is?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I’ve seen a small handful of posts from the BAP contingency spread about, and I usually enjoy the debate.

I lean toward need and contend it needs to be about “value” - which is ideally an organic combination of the two.

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Depending on who falls. I would definitely be OK with going Defense at 7.

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I’ve seen a small handful of posts from the BAP contingency spread about, and I usually enjoy the debate.

I lean toward need and contend it needs to be about “value” - which is ideally an organic combination of the two.

I have seen Marty and Pirkster post here and there,  but I have missed any posts from them or others on this topic thus far this offseason.

You and I are in complete agreement on your closing statement. 

I just don't think I have seen as much pre draft unanimity regarding offense vs. Defense  as I have this year.

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Depending on who falls. I would definitely be OK with going Defense at 7.

What if the draft goes as expected and nobody "falls?"  

Would you be okay with defense at 7 then?

Who would have to fall for you to be okay with defense at 7?

Is there a defensive player that is a consensus top 5 pick who could fall to 7 that you still wouldn't choose?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I’ve seen a small handful of posts from the BAP contingency spread about, and I usually enjoy the debate.

I lean toward need and contend it needs to be about “value” - which is ideally an organic combination of the two.

I have seen Marty and Pirkster post here and there,  but I have missed any posts from them or others on this topic thus far this offseason.

You and I are in complete agreement on your closing statement. 

I just don't think I have seen as much pre draft unanimity regarding offense vs. Defense  as I have this year.

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Depending on who falls. I would definitely be OK with going Defense at 7.

What if the draft goes as expected and nobody "falls?"  

Would you be okay with defense at 7 then?

Who would have to fall for you to be okay with defense at 7?

Is there a defensive player that is a consensus top 5 pick who could fall to 7 that you still wouldn't choose?

Bosa, Allen, Williams, Gary and Sweat. Pretty much any Elite DT or Pass Rusher.

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Waiting on April to get here first to see what they'll do potentially after they've added some free agents to the roster between the 13th of next week and throughout the rest of March.

It's just an interesting off season. This team can technically go in any direction during the first three rounds. I know a lot of us will clamor for the offensive side of the football. And rightfully so. It's been this team's great bane for quite some time now. Will they go QB on opening night? That depends on whether or not they sign Foles or maybe another guy like Fitzpatrick, Taylor or Bridgewater at a lower expense.

The one year where I would like to see a huge trade down though with an eye towards next year's QB class instead of reaching on risky options this year is here. This is the year where I would like to see Caldwell and Co. finesse the system and stockpile picks to add quality starting potential on offense. Murray and Haskins are not as convincing to me as Watkins, Mahomes or Mayfield were coming out of college.

And I genuinely like the idea of potentially landing Justin Herbert with another year under his belt. Or a guy like Jake Fromm who should be pretty well polished and ready to go after 2019 is over with and done. I still like Jake Eason too. He's got a shot at redemption with the Huskies this year. And he honestly probably has the strongest arm I have seen out of a QB since Matthew Stafford. He has a rifle.

We'll see. I honestly would rather them go after Taylor, Fitzpatrick and Bridgewater next week. Keep or cut Bortles. I don't care either way at this point. Just bring in decent enough competition to put us into position to win with this defense and hopefully with a few lineman added and maybe another athlete at a skill position or two will have us back in the play-off mix in 2019. But if it doesn't work out? No big worries. Next year's class is better.

Will Grier in RD3 is another name and target that should be mentioned too. That could be a possibility in April.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

I have seen Marty and Pirkster post here and there,  but I have missed any posts from them or others on this topic thus far this offseason.

You and I are in complete agreement on your closing statement. 

I just don't think I have seen as much pre draft unanimity regarding offense vs. Defense  as I have this year.

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What if the draft goes as expected and nobody "falls?"  

Would you be okay with defense at 7 then?

Who would have to fall for you to be okay with defense at 7?

Is there a defensive player that is a consensus top 5 pick who could fall to 7 that you still wouldn't choose?

Bosa, Allen, Williams, Gary and Sweat. Pretty much any Elite DT or Pass Rusher.

I don't like Gary or Oliver.  I would be fine with Bosa or Allen if they fell.  

Undecided on Williams.

I would be okay with Sweat, though I prefer an offensive player.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I have suggested Devin White, LB LSU in a couple of threads and have been pretty much boxed around for it. I see him as the MLB, pushing Jack back outside and trading Telvin Smith for whatever (getting rid of his contract would be helpful, too). Maybe White's more of a 3-4 ILB? I don't know.

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Season Ticket holder since 2004.

 

        

Depending on who falls. I would definitely be OK with going Defense at 7.

Bosa/Williams yes but doubt they fall...

Out of the other defensive guys I'd rather have one of these over them:
Haskins
Hockenson
Ford
Taylor
Metcalf

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I have suggested Devin White, LB LSU in a couple of threads and have been pretty much boxed around for it. I see him as the MLB, pushing Jack back outside and trading Telvin Smith for whatever (getting rid of his contract would be helpful, too). Maybe White's more of a 3-4 ILB? I don't know.

I wouldn't mind White at all. The problem is what to do with Smith if we did take him.

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Depending on who falls. I would definitely be OK with going Defense at 7.

Bosa/Williams yes but doubt they fall...

Out of the other defensive guys I'd rather have one of these over them:
Haskins
Hockenson
Ford
Taylor
Metcalf

For me, definitely Bosa and possibly Allen. I may have said Williams, but not now since they have Dareus for at least 1 more year. No way Bosa falls, but Allen could and then it would be either him or Hockenson.

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I have suggested Devin White, LB LSU in a couple of threads and have been pretty much boxed around for it. I see him as the MLB, pushing Jack back outside and trading Telvin Smith for whatever (getting rid of his contract would be helpful, too). Maybe White's more of a 3-4 ILB? I don't know.

I’ve floated the concept a number of times of a move like this, I’m just not feeling 2019 is the year to do it given the needs on offense. 

I think they can hold off a year and see how Jack and Telvin perform/bounce back after having a few ugly games last season. 
They may still make positive adjustments IMO.

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I have suggested Devin White, LB LSU in a couple of threads and have been pretty much boxed around for it. I see him as the MLB, pushing Jack back outside and trading Telvin Smith for whatever (getting rid of his contract would be helpful, too). Maybe White's more of a 3-4 ILB? I don't know.

I wouldn't mind White at all. The problem is what to do with Smith if we did take him.

True...was he that big a liability last year? I know he was weak against the run, was he weak against the passing game too?

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Season Ticket holder since 2004.

 

        

I wouldn't mind White at all. The problem is what to do with Smith if we did take him.

True...was he that big a liability last year? I know he was weak against the run, was he weak against the passing game too?

He had 4 or 5 games that included some ugly gaffs in coverage. 

Usually it involved an over pursuit or bite on a run fake. 

It’s mostly stuff he can clean up some and still be a great asset to the team IMO. 
If he repeats those mistakes in 2019 - I’d be all about moving Jack to WILL and landing a Mike who is stronger against the run. 

If they make such a move this year, I’d understand why. I’d just give it one more year. 

Ideally they’d trade telvin for a mid-rounder if they decide to make the change.

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Not sure he'd have much value, maybe a 6th. The contract will hurt as well.

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Season Ticket holder since 2004.

 

        

Not sure he'd have much value, maybe a 6th. The contract will hurt as well.

Lots of variables there, but since he was restructured- the 10mil per year salary will sting his trade chances. 

That’s why I used the adjective “ideally”

A team in real need of a 4-3 will would have to feel they were pretty close elsewhere to spend big on him. Fairly slim chance - but stranger things have happened...

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I'll always take need over BAP, unless the severity of the need is lower. We seemed to go BAP in last year's draft and look where that got us.... hopefully Taven shows more this year.

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I'm still a fan of telvin. I think last year took a lot out of our defense and we'd be overreacting to soon to trade him now.

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Let's Get Em!!!! Go Jags!

Waiting on April to get here first to see what they'll do potentially after they've added some free agents to the roster between the 13th of next week and throughout the rest of March.

It's just an interesting off season. This team can technically go in any direction during the first three rounds. I know a lot of us will clamor for the offensive side of the football. And rightfully so. It's been this team's great bane for quite some time now. Will they go QB on opening night? That depends on whether or not they sign Foles or maybe another guy like Fitzpatrick, Taylor or Bridgewater at a lower expense.

The one year where I would like to see a huge trade down though with an eye towards next year's QB class instead of reaching on risky options this year is here. This is the year where I would like to see Caldwell and Co. finesse the system and stockpile picks to add quality starting potential on offense. Murray and Haskins are not as convincing to me as Watkins, Mahomes or Mayfield were coming out of college.

And I genuinely like the idea of potentially landing Justin Herbert with another year under his belt. Or a guy like Jake Fromm who should be pretty well polished and ready to go after 2019 is over with and done. I still like Jake Eason too. He's got a shot at redemption with the Huskies this year. And he honestly probably has the strongest arm I have seen out of a QB since Matthew Stafford. He has a rifle.

We'll see. I honestly would rather them go after Taylor, Fitzpatrick and Bridgewater next week. Keep or cut Bortles. I don't care either way at this point. Just bring in decent enough competition to put us into position to win with this defense and hopefully with a few lineman added and maybe another athlete at a skill position or two will have us back in the play-off mix in 2019. But if it doesn't work out? No big worries. Next year's class is better.

Will Grier in RD3 is another name and target that should be mentioned too. That could be a possibility in April.

Outside of Foles, I don't see much free agent activity from this team.

Depending upon the free agents available, maybe the team makes a run at a TE or RT that is reasonably priced, but otherwise that's it. 

I have thought many times about taking our chances on drsfting a frsnchise QB next year and I am torn.  On the one hand, it appears next year's class is deeper and more talented at QB than this year's class.  Furthermore, with our schedule, if things go wrong this year like they did last year, we could easily be in position to get one of those passers.

On the other hand, any number of things could happen between now and then to change the calculus.  Hopefully not, but any of those guys could suffer a serious injury.  Any number of those guys could experience a drop in performance.  The Jaguars are still talented enough that, with a good offseason and some good breaks, they could weather that schedule  (NFC South and AFC West) and have a dect to good season- good enough to put them out of any reasonable position to draft one of those prospects. 

At this point I am wondering from a talent/depth perspective whether it is better to take an OL first and WR/TE second or vice versa.

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I have suggested Devin White, LB LSU in a couple of threads and have been pretty much boxed around for it. I see him as the MLB, pushing Jack back outside and trading Telvin Smith for whatever (getting rid of his contract would be helpful, too). Maybe White's more of a 3-4 ILB? I don't know.

My apologies missing/not recalling your posts. 

As for White, I  wouldn't mind him if we traded down a few slots.

But I  think I am inclined to agree with NYC regarding giving him another chance.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Yeah it's a good observation, right now the talk is purely needs based. That's probably down to the fact that FA hasn't happened yet and people don't really anticipate us really spending any money in it. Therefore everyone has their eyes on the draft to fill the needs on our team, of which TE and O-line are especially glaring needs. I suspect that we will actually make more moves than expected in FA and our biggest holes will be patched up, and people will be a bit more open to BAP than they are now.

Also, generally I think most people realize that the BAP vs Need debate is strictly a philosophical one and doesn't actually have much application to reality, every team has always looked for a marriage of the two, like NYC said.

As far as the Jags go, I'd readily accept Williams, Bosa, or Allen as a BAP pick at 7. I think they are the three blue chip prospects in this draft and therefore should be drafted ahead of all else. After that I'd say the grades all get a lot closer together, so you may as well look for someone that fills a need.

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Depending on who falls. I would definitely be OK with going Defense at 7.

Bosa/Williams yes but doubt they fall...

Out of the other defensive guys I'd rather have one of these over them:
Haskins
Hockenson
Ford
Taylor
Metcalf

To be clear, you're talking DT Quinnen Williams as opposed to  CB Greedy Williams?

I agree with your list of priorities in that order, though I think I would favor Sweat over Metcalf.

After further review, my order of preference at this point might be Haskins, Taylor, Ford, Hockenson, then Sweat and Metcalf.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!