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The problems with 'win-now'
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Who has watched 'The Hunt', the new video on the main site following the Jags throughout the offseason? It's mildly interesting, but one part stood out to me; Doug giving what sounds like a motivational speech to Jaguars staff (not players). It's interesting because you almost never hear a coach admit so openly that they are under so much pressure to win now: "When we don't win football games I've screwed everyone in this room, not only everyone in this room, but all their families and everyone there. But I promise you this, I am gonna get after it this year. We gotta win or... that's it. Ok... That's the truth... But I'll tell you this, we're going down swinging."
The question now is: How will this extreme win-now philosophy shape our off-season actions? First of all, it worries me for many reasons. If you are blinkered towards only thinking about how competitive you can be in the upcoming season, and not thinking about 2,3,4,5 years down the line, you can make decisions that actively hurt your team in the long-term. Examples of this could be: - trading away future draft capital (of which we have plenty) to try to fill immediate needs. - giving out / restructuring contracts that push big cap hits into the future - reaching for significantly less talented players in the draft because they fill an immediate need There are, of course, examples of all of these things working out well for teams, but generally speaking these things are hallmarks of badly-run franchises who are destined to spend year after year facing the same problems. Over the next month or so we will get a clear idea of just how far Dave and Doug are willing to push this win-now mentality, with re-signings and the start of FA being particularly revealing. Based on this win-now philosophy, here are a few vague predictions for the offseason: 1. We will find a way to be active in FA and spend more than people expect. 2. Our two first rounders will be players at postions of need that can immediately hit the ground running. Controversially (maybe) I think this might mean they don't go LT early, because rookie LTs do not usually equate to immediate success, especially paired with a young QB. CB, WR, S, LB might all be more likely positions based on the immediate impact they could make. I think they may go with the devil-they-know in Cam Robinson and hope he can improve on the distinctly average level of play he showed last year. 3. There is pretty much zero chance we take a QB in the draft, especially early. What are your thoughts on the win-now approach? We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today!
"But I promise you this, I am gonna get after it this year." ??????
Isn't that what he's supposed to do every year?
When you get into the endzone, act like you've been there before.
Well as a fan of winning I'm always wanting the team to be in win-now mode. We've had plenty of rebuilding years. And we've seen plenty of other teams turn it around quickly.
Haven't seen the video but I'm glad Marrone is feeling the pressure. I hope Caldwell is too. I hope they push hard to win a lot this year. Cuz he's right, if they don't win, they are going to be out on their [BLEEP]. I don't want them thinking about 2021... they may not be here then. Any coach or front office that 'punts' on a season planning for another one is playing with fire imo. Not sure how much "getting after it" a coach can do... but we'll see how much this motivation seeps into the other coaches, players, and how it actually affects the season (if at all). I for one am hoping it does. Lock up Yan. Use as many picks on guys that can help in 2020 as possible. Get rid of contracts of guys that were dead weight last year. And put together a watchable season. (Which if we're all being honest... last season wasn't terrible to start but was pretty much all downhill from London on) We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today!
This season has disaster written all over it and franchise ruin running up the back of it. If only he had felt like that at half time in the mythical fantasy of 2017 Jaguars football.
Birth of the Franchise - November 30, 1993
Death of the Franchise - November 29, 2011 Fans deserve better. Thanks for all the good times too many are in the past.
I think football is slowly and slowly becoming more like baseball, ESPECIALLY if Borrow doesnt play for the Bengals.
Small-Market teams without a history, will generally always be associated with a losing culture, lack of exposure, and the constant fear of leaving their city (02-21-2020, 12:16 PM)JagJohn Wrote: Who has watched 'The Hunt', the new video on the main site following the Jags throughout the offseason? It's mildly interesting, but one part stood out to me; Doug giving what sounds like a motivational speech to Jaguars staff (not players). It's interesting because you almost never hear a coach admit so openly that they are under so much pressure to win now: "When we don't win football games I've screwed everyone in this room, not only everyone in this room, but all their families and everyone there. But I promise you this, I am gonna get after it this year. We gotta win or... that's it. Ok... That's the truth... But I'll tell you this, we're going down swinging." I wouldn't be so quick to assume these three bolded bullet points are in play because Doug gave a motivational speech to his staff. I think Dave's comments after Khan announced he was not being fired made clear this approach was not his intention. (02-21-2020, 04:44 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:(02-21-2020, 12:16 PM)JagJohn Wrote: Who has watched 'The Hunt', the new video on the main site following the Jags throughout the offseason? It's mildly interesting, but one part stood out to me; Doug giving what sounds like a motivational speech to Jaguars staff (not players). It's interesting because you almost never hear a coach admit so openly that they are under so much pressure to win now: "When we don't win football games I've screwed everyone in this room, not only everyone in this room, but all their families and everyone there. But I promise you this, I am gonna get after it this year. We gotta win or... that's it. Ok... That's the truth... But I'll tell you this, we're going down swinging." So Dave's comments stand, but Doug's don't? Of course Dave had to say that. At that same time they also announced how Doug would have much more say in the personnel process - which also makes me think they are gonna be adopting a very short term view of things. Do you honestly not have any worries about this? There is at least a reasonable chance that their approach this off-season might hamper us in future years, at a time where we really should be taking a long-term outlook. That concerns me. We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today! (02-21-2020, 06:15 PM)JagJohn Wrote:(02-21-2020, 04:44 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: I wouldn't be so quick to assume these three bolded bullet points are in play because Doug gave a motivational speech to his staff. Dave's comments stand. Doug's do too. Doug's comments simply don't mean all these things you fear are going to happen are in play. He was trying to rally his staff, not making declarations about a free agency plan, announcing a short sighted draft strategy, or saying that the F.O. will make a shift in contract structure. Those are all things YOU believe are happening. I don't get that from anything I'm hearing. Are their backs against the wall? Yeah, absolutely. But that doesn't give them carte blanche to cripple the future of the franchise with their decision making. They have owners to answer to and get approval from when these decisions are being made. I think there may be a move or two made that reeks at least a little bit of desperation. I don't think we'll see a litany of them as you suggest. So, no, I'm not that worried about it. People make too much fuss about "win now" in my humble opinion. There are probably 14 teams every year that feel some significant degree of "win now" energy. It's common and it doesn't have to turn your front office into a bunch of blathering idiots. (02-21-2020, 07:57 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:(02-21-2020, 06:15 PM)JagJohn Wrote: So Dave's comments stand, but Doug's don't? That's fair, but I do think there's a reasonably good chance that in 1, 2, 3 years time we will be looking back at this off-season and lamenting the fact that essentially a lame duck staff was given too much freedom to try and put together an against the odds winning season. As always, the proof will be in the pudding. I wonder if Khan has put any stipulations on what they can and can't do. For example, trading future draft capital.
I didn't watch it and I won't. I'm not supporting ownership making stupid decisions. Maybe they will do this all year and show how stupid the decisions were.
When you fail after already being warned you had to improve, you better not have any different things you haven't tried. That just shows you don't care enough. You fired one guy and blamed him for everything instead of blaming Doug for being a wimp and not telling TC to get off the practice field and out of meetings. Either Doug was onboard with everything or he went along with it. At this point he coaches out his contract, Jags move more games to London, and start playing for real to make London happy.
(02-22-2020, 03:18 AM)p_rushing Wrote: I didn't watch it and I won't. I'm not supporting ownership making stupid decisions. Maybe they will do this all year and show how stupid the decisions were.2020 the Jags play two "home" games in London, which is the warm-up for playing 2 home games and 2 away games in London. Gets the fans ready for 2022 when it's 4 home and 4 away games, then 2023 is the full-time move to London. We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today!
(02-22-2020, 10:46 AM)navyjagfan Wrote:(02-22-2020, 03:18 AM)p_rushing Wrote: I didn't watch it and I won't. I'm not supporting ownership making stupid decisions. Maybe they will do this all year and show how stupid the decisions were.2020 the Jags play two "home" games in London, which is the warm-up for playing 2 home games and 2 away games in London. Gets the fans ready for 2022 when it's 4 home and 4 away games, then 2023 is the full-time move to London. Stop. If they play 4 #becausejaguars games in London then the following year the NFL won't be there any more. Nothing kills expansion more than a terrible product. “An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato
Even Vic Ketchman, who holds a low simmering disdain for Jacksonville, says that Jacksonville is ready to fully support a team with competitive attendance numbers if Khan would simply put a winning team on the field.
My only issue with this is we have sucked for years, even if we are not in a win now mode our front office had pretty much always made terrible decisions. Would you rather have year like 2017 when almost go to the Super bowl and then a couple years down or just consistently be 5-11, 6-10? I think our fans and ownership need a change in mentality.
Also outside of the Patriots, what team do you feel has a formula that we should follow. I feel like alot of teams are up and down. The Ravens take risk and look where they are now. They blew a lot of money with Flacco after they won a super bowl a very strong defense, similar to our 2017 team, they had a few down years and are back because they took a risk on Lamar Jackson, when we wasted our pick on a experimental DT Taven Bryan, similar to how we wasted a pick on Alualu in the first round some years back. I think being in a win now allows the team to pick players the will immediately help the team rather than experimental picks hoping they pan out. It also gives the fanbase hope. We like to go into seasons thinking we have a chance to win the super bowl. That is goal for every franchise. I ask you ..did you enjoy our 2017 season better than any other season we had in the last 10 years? I def did and if we can have more of those, I think it will get us away from moving to London.
We've had so many "Win Now" seasons in which we finished in the bottom 10 that I don't even pay attention to any off-season communication.
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(02-23-2020, 11:51 AM)D-Money Wrote: My only issue with this is we have sucked for years, even if we are not in a win now mode our front office had pretty much always made terrible decisions. Would you rather have year like 2017 when almost go to the Super bowl and then a couple years down or just consistently be 5-11, 6-10? I think our fans and ownership need a change in mentality. 2017 was great. What killed team support was how far we swung the other way with mostly the same players. How do you go from hero to zero in one year flat? It’s confusing and frustrating - like we’ve always been. Here we thought we had finally turned the corner, but it was into a blind alley. A little less success the following year would have been acceptable. Instead, we absolutely cratered. (02-23-2020, 11:51 AM)D-Money Wrote: My only issue with this is we have sucked for years, even if we are not in a win now mode our front office had pretty much always made terrible decisions. Would you rather have year like 2017 when almost go to the Super bowl and then a couple years down or just consistently be 5-11, 6-10? I think our fans and ownership need a change in mentality. No, I hated every moment of it, as I'm sure many other jags fans also did. Winning sucks. Of course everyone enjoys winning seasons more than losing seasons. The question is; which approach to team building gives this team the chance to consistently have winning seasons over the next 10 years? You also assume that 2017's success was due to the team adopting a win-now approach, when in reality it was a culmination of years of team building which was always designed to eventually be reinforced by high-priced free agency. Undoubtedly Coughlin's arrival and win-lunch mindset lit a bit of a fire under this franchise, so in a way it did work. Drafting Fournette at 4, over Mahomes and Watson, is a prime example of the win-now mindset. And in 2017, it kind of seemed like it might have been the best decision because we had immediate success. How does that decision look now? That is exactly the kind of decision I want this team to avoid this off-season. (02-23-2020, 12:19 PM)homebiscuit Wrote:But it was the front office. Did we not have enough money to resign, Poz, Mercedes Lewis and ARob? I believe that was the reason why the turn was so drastic, we lost of offensive and defensive leaders, which kind of allowed chaos. But was is the fact that we could not afford them or was it our Front office thinking they could do without those players. Really pay attention to that? I think we really overlook that. Smith cried when Poz retired and you could tell how players looked up to Mercerdez and how vocal he was.(02-23-2020, 11:51 AM)D-Money Wrote: My only issue with this is we have sucked for years, even if we are not in a win now mode our front office had pretty much always made terrible decisions. Would you rather have year like 2017 when almost go to the Super bowl and then a couple years down or just consistently be 5-11, 6-10? I think our fans and ownership need a change in mentality. Also just point out to me who we couldn't keep based on salary from the 2017 team? |
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