http://www.bigcatcountry.com/2014/2/11/5...irst-round

 

 

The TLDR version, take a QB in the first round if you want to win a Super Bowl. Brady, Brees, and Russ Wilson are the only 3 QBs taken in the 2nd round or later in the salary cap/UFA era to win a SB. 

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On top of that, only Brady and Wilson won one with their original teams. And Brees was taken 32nd overall so it's kinda borderline on if he should really be counted as a 2nd rounder anyway. 

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Calling Russell Wilson one of two quarterbacks who won the Super Bowl with his original team is not saying much. Seattle's offense is a lot more running than passing.

 

Of course, Drew Brees can't be faulted for not taking the Chargers to a Super Bowl. The Chargers had the #1 overall pick and traded it to the Falcons, so he had to dig them out of a deep hole. Brady and Wilson were drafted by good teams and have better coaches. No doubt Brees would have done what they did if he was drafted by a good team.

 

Expand it to include playoff game losers. Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick were drafted near the top of the second round. Dalton led the Bengals to a division title after two years of being a wild card. Kaepernick played in Super Bowl 47 and was one pass away from going back this year. Also, I don't think Nick Foles was a first round pick. He won the division title in his first year as a starter.

 

Despite these success stories, however, it is important to remember the 2014 quarterback class sucks after the top three guys everyone is talking about, so we do need to pick one of them at #3.

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A lot of lousy late round picks will skew those numbers.  Would be interesting to see it by round.  I imagine just 2nd round QBs would fare a lot better.

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Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.

10% chance that QB will start for over a season, even less of a chance for them to actually be a "franchise" guy.

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A lot of lousy late round picks will skew those numbers.  Would be interesting to see it by round.  I imagine just 2nd round QBs would fare a lot better.

 

Only good second rounders are Brees and Kaep. In the last 20 years.

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Only good second rounders are Brees and Kaep. In the last 20 years.

 

Andy Dalton is no good? In his first three seasons the Bengals went to the playoffs every year and he was one of the reasons for that.

 

What about Nick Foles, when was he drafted?

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Andy Dalton is no good? In his first three seasons the Bengals went to the playoffs every year and he was one of the reasons for that.

 

What about Nick Foles, when was he drafted?

 

If you're going to discredit Russell Wilson, then you should discredit Andy Dalton too.

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I was wrong about Trent Baalke. 

This stuff is easily discredited. I can go find all the first round qbs that did nothing just like the second through seventh rounders can be picked on. I'm fine with either a qb or clowney. A monstrous defense would be awesome again here.

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Titansequaltrash aka my mini me. Follows me around like a cute puppy dog.

I mean, it takes a lot to win a Super Bowl and there's a lot more that go's into it besides what round your QB was picked in..

 

I mostly agree though, a QB in the first, specifically Bridge, would be awesome.

 

 

EDIT: In my humble opinion, I'm not much of a believer in Dalton, who loses in the first round of the playoffs every year even though he has a stellar defense and top tier receivers.

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<a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.bigcatcountry.com/2014/2/11/5402756/how-hard-is-it-to-find-a-quarterback-outside-of-the-first-round'>http://www.bigcatcountry.com/2014/2/11/5402756/how-hard-is-it-to-find-a-quarterback-outside-of-the-first-round</a>



The TLDR version, take a QB in the first round if you want to win a Super Bowl. Brady, Brees, and Russ Wilson are the only 3 QBs taken in the 2nd round or later in the salary cap/UFA era to win a SB.

Kurt Warner.

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This stuff is easily discredited. I can go find all the first round qbs that did nothing just like the second through seventh rounders can be picked on. I'm fine with either a qb or clowney. A monstrous defense would be awesome again here.

QB's in the first round have a higher rate of success.

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I was wrong about Trent Baalke. 

This stuff is easily discredited. I can go find all the first round qbs that did nothing just like the second through seventh rounders can be picked on. I'm fine with either a qb or clowney. A monstrous defense would be awesome again here.

The math for what you want is already done, too. The bust rate in this study is a little over 90% (2-7 rounds combined), you will find the bust rate for 1st rounders is right around 50%. Does that mean it is discredited? If you want to break it down more it's 50% 1st round, around 20% 2nd round, around 10% 3rd round, and day 3 is 4%. 

 

Of course what constitutes a bust is subjective. For example, these stats say that people like Dalton, Schaub, Henne, and Garrard are hits which to me is a very borderline designation. 

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Kurt Warner.

Yes, I suppose we could add Kurt Warner as an undrafted example...but then when you added the rest of the undrafted QBs that wound up making teams rosters the %s would look even worse, so it's probably best you just let the undrafted crop go haha. 

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The math for what you want is already done, too. The bust rate in this study is a little over 90% (2-7 rounds combined), you will find the bust rate for 1st rounders is right around 50%. Does that mean it is discredited? If you want to bread it down more it's 50% 1st round, around 20% 2nd round, around 10% 3rd round, and day 3 is 4%. 

 

Of course what constitutes a bust is subjective. For example, these stats say that people like Dalton, Schaub, Henne, and Garrard are hits which to me is a very borderline designation.

Wow, I was just typing out a response showing all the QBs taken in the first round dating back to 2000 when I screwed it up on my Nexus and lost it all and was noticing how it seemed like 50/50 on the first round picks. I mean there was a year with David Carr, Joey Harrington and Patrick Ramsey all in the first. How could it be any worse haha.

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Titansequaltrash aka my mini me. Follows me around like a cute puppy dog.

Way off topic but my god as much as I love the gators I just cannot picture jevon kearse playing there. 1999 draft pick to the titans in first round.

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Titansequaltrash aka my mini me. Follows me around like a cute puppy dog.

Honestly, is any of this news to anyone? If a team sees a franchise quarterback, they take them round 1. No one decides to wait until later rounds to get "the guy." Brady wasn't selected with franchise qb expectations. Neither was Wilson. They were expected to sit behind, and provide competition for, Bledsoe and Flynn, respectively. If the Jags wait until rounds 3 or later to take a QB, it'll be because they didn't see one that could be "the guy."

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Honestly, is any of this news to anyone? If a team sees a franchise quarterback, they take them round 1. No one decides to wait until later rounds to get "the guy." Brady wasn't selected with franchise qb expectations. Neither was Wilson. They were expected to sit behind, and provide competition for, Bledsoe and Flynn, respectively. If the Jags wait until rounds 3 or later to take a QB, it'll be because they didn't see one that could be "the guy."

Of course it shouldn't be. Many of us have been screaming from the mountains that if we pass on QB at 3 then we aren't getting a franchise QB in this draft. There is a vocal minority that thinks taking Clowney, Watkins, OT (LOL junglecat), or something else and waiting until the 2nd or 3rd round to take a QB will be the best of both worlds. 

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Of course it shouldn't be. Many of us have been screaming from the mountains that if we pass on QB at 3 then we aren't getting a franchise QB in this draft. There is a vocal minority that thinks taking Clowney, Watkins, OT (LOL junglecat), or something else and waiting until the 2nd or 3rd round to take a QB will be the best of both worlds. 

 

Jungle Cat only wants Jake Matthews because he played with Luke Joeckel, which is a stupid reason to pick an offensive tackle. Not many people are on the Sammy Watkins train.

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Yes, I suppose we could add Kurt Warner as an undrafted example...but then when you added the rest of the undrafted QBs that wound up making teams rosters the %s would look even worse, so it's probably best you just let the undrafted crop go haha. 

Brad Johnson

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