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Great article that explains how a draft board is put together, why BAP is gone


Quote:It all comes back to two items:

 

1.  You must evaluate correctly

2.  You must get the proper value

 

Call it needs drafting, call it BAP drafting... if you are evaluating right and getting the right value (not reaching) it really doesn't matter what you want to call it.  Misses happen, but you should be successful over the long haul if you get those two things right.
I would like some clarification to make sure I understand you. 

 

If you do 1...how can you not achieve 2?

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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Quote:I would like some clarification to make sure I understand you. 

 

If you do 1...how can you not achieve 2?
 

Evaluate that one player is better but still take the other guy because you don't need Michael Jordan, you need Sam Bowie?

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Quote:I would like some clarification to make sure I understand you. 

 

If you do 1...how can you not achieve 2?
 

Step 1: Evaluate correctly

Step 2: Follow your evaluation

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Quote:It all comes back to two items:

 

1.  You must evaluate correctly

2.  You must get the proper value

 

Call it needs drafting, call it BAP drafting, if you are evaluating right and getting the right value (not reaching) it really doesn't matter what you want to call it. Misses happen, but you should be successful over the long haul if you get those two things right.
 

So nobody would criticize the Bryan Anger pick if he was selected in the fifth round instead of the third? The only problem with that is we could have missed him that way. You have to correctly evaluate not only the players, but also the risk/reward value of trading up, because for all we know Anger could have been a good value in round 4 if we had not given that pick to the Buccaneers to leapfrog the Rams (who then traded down after we jumped over them).

 

So not only do you have to evaluate the players correctly, you have to accurately judge when it is necessary to trade up to avoid reaching for a player later and decide if the risk of losing a pick you need is worth moving up. Failing to do that created a problem in 2010, when nobody wanted to give us a second round pick that Gene Smith, who did try to trade down from #10 to get one, would have used to pick Sean Lee. He did not have to reach for Tyson Alualu, but having a second round pick would have helped us big time and Sean Lee is a much better linebacker than Derek Cox is a cornerback.


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Quote:It all comes back to two items:


1. You must evaluate correctly

2. You must get the proper value


Call it needs drafting, call it BAP drafting... if you are evaluating right and getting the right value (not reaching) it really doesn't matter what you want to call it. Misses happen, but you should be successful over the long haul if you get those two things right.


Now that I agree with.

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Quote:LOL Not sure what that means, but it is funny.

 

The truth that Jungle Cat seems to not understand about BAP vs. need is what Jaguar Kick said: Our mistake was poor talent evaluation, not our draft strategy.
 

When you draft needs, you tend to sacrifice talent for a specific warm body. That's all.

First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. - Mahatma Gandhi

 

http://s6.postimg.org/vyr2ycdfz/Teddy_Br...cked_4.gif
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Quote:When you draft needs, you tend to sacrifice talent for a specific warm body. That's all.


I don't any poster I'm here is advocating for needs based drafting. What some and I are saying is get great value whether through trading or by picking where you're at, get BAP within reason and as long as it makes since. Also, getting value means you do a great job knowing where people are going to be picked and knowing your competition. And don't draft scared like gene.

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Quote:I would like some clarification to make sure I understand you. 

 

If you do 1...how can you not achieve 2?
 

Reaching for need.  Ignoring the board.  Not having the guts to let someone go outside the value range because you're afraid they won't be there with the next pick.

 

A lot of folks hate to hear it over and over again, but once the legwork is done it should be just rank 'em and pick 'em.

 

Where teams get in trouble, is when they get too cute for themselves and think they're the smartest in the room (see Smith.)  I've seen some argue Smith really did want BAP yet it was his evaluations that failed him... fair enough.  There was so much wrong with his drafts it's nearly impossible to be sure (personally, I believe his biggest flaw was that he was drafting in the image of himself - family values, small school, marginal talent, effort guys instead of the best players.)  But certainly Al Davis would be a good example of this if Smith doesn't suit.

"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."
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(This post was last modified: 02-14-2014, 05:51 PM by Jungle Cat.)

Quote:I would like some clarification to make sure I understand you. 

 

If you do 1...how can you not achieve 2?
Alualu would have been a solid third or fourth round pick as he is best quality depth. Anger, the punter, would have been a solid sixth or seventh round pick.

 

BTW, this is not based on hind-sight.


First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. - Mahatma Gandhi

 

http://s6.postimg.org/vyr2ycdfz/Teddy_Br...cked_4.gif
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Quote:I don't any poster I'm here is advocating for needs based drafting. What some and I are saying is get great value whether through trading or by picking where you're at, get BAP within reason and as long as it makes since. Also, getting value means you do a great job knowing where people are going to be picked and knowing your competition. And don't draft scared like gene.
 

You always take the best player available regardless of position. To which, the nay-sayers drum up the insane scenario of drafting five offensive guards in a row. 

 

If you fail to draft the most talented players you can possibly find, you will never reach competitive strength.

First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. - Mahatma Gandhi

 

http://s6.postimg.org/vyr2ycdfz/Teddy_Br...cked_4.gif
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Quote:When you draft needs, you tend to sacrifice talent for a specific warm body. That's all.
 

You must never read anything I post. I clearly explained you can be a needs drafter without sacrificing talent.

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Quote:You always take the best player available regardless of position. To which, the nay-sayers drum up the insane scenario of drafting five offensive guards in a row. 

 

If you fail to draft the most talented players you can possibly find, you will never reach competitive strength.
 

You NEVER EVER EVER take a player at ANY position just to have an elite player on the roster if you know you don't need to fill or upgrade the position he plays. Why don't you understand that?

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Quote:Alualu would have been a solid third or fourth round pick as he is best quality depth. Anger, the punter, would have been a solid sixth or seventh round pick.

 

BTW, this is not based on hind-sight.
 

Alualu was projected as a second round pick. Anger was projected as a 3-5 round pick. Both times, we did not have a pick in the next round, so Gene Smith worried he would miss out on them later.

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Quote:You always take the best player available regardless of position. To which, the nay-sayers drum up the insane scenario of drafting five offensive guards in a row.


If you fail to draft the most talented players you can possibly find, you will never reach competitive strength.


But nobody does this. Need is factored in, period.

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Quote:Alualu would have been a solid third or fourth round pick as he is best quality depth. Anger, the punter, would have been a solid sixth or seventh round pick.

 

BTW, this is not based on hind-sight.
 

I agree completely with what you just typed here, but it doesn't answer the question I posed.  Now if it weren't your intent to answer the question...my mistake and carry on.

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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(This post was last modified: 02-15-2014, 05:49 PM by PAjagsfan.)

Quote:You NEVER EVER EVER take a player at ANY position just to have an elite player on the roster if you know you don't need to fill or upgrade the position he plays. Why don't you understand that?
 

Why not? Why would you pass on an elite player?


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Quote:Why not? Why would you pass on an elite player?
 

1.  It's unavoidable.  Most teams only have one pick per round per draft.  Once that pick is spent, there will be other elite players remaining.

 

2.  That elite player may not fit your scheme.  If your scheme requires the linemen to pull a lot, it wouldn't be smart to draft the elite mauler that excels in a phone booth but does not have the feet to pull on traps, counters and screens.  That elite player would be less than effective in a scheme that does not fit his strengths and weaknesses.

 

3.  Sometimes having a balanced team requires it.  If you recall in 1996, the Jaguars once again had the second pick in the draft.  Boselli was in his second year, and they signed Leon Searcy from Pittsburgh as a free agent.  The Jaguars tackles were already set, and already the best tackle tandem in football.  They could have drafted Ogden at that point, which would have meant they would have dramatically overpaid in free agency for a guard AND for a RT (because either Ogden or Boselli would have to be switched).  Meanwhile, other areas of the team would be neglected.  As it is, the Jaguars drafted Kevin Hardy, who wasn't a bad player at all.  In fact, he was a very good OLB trapped in a horrible scheme that didn't fully utilize his talents.   He was a good all around LB, but wasn't able to have the explosive plays that make for pro bowls due to how he was used until Capers arrived.  That year (1999) he put up double digit sacks and made Pro Bowl.

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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Quote:Why not? Why would you pass on an elite player?



Because he is not a fit for your team/scheme, for one.


If you don't have a spot for a huge NT in your scheme, you don't draft one, even if an elite one is there. Perhaps you employ a scheme where Henry Melton is your style, not Vince Wilfork.


If you don't have a need for a road grader G, you don't select a great road grader G. Perhaps you need a guy who is better on the move.
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Quote:Because he is not a fit for your team/scheme, for one.


If you don't have a spot for a huge NT in your scheme, you don't draft one, even if an elite one is there. Perhaps you employ a scheme where Henry Melton is your style, not Vince Wilfork.


If you don't have a need for a road grader G, you don't select a great road grader G. Perhaps you need a guy who is better on the move.
 

 

Quote:1.  It's unavoidable.  Most teams only have one pick per round per draft.  Once that pick is spent, there will be other elite players remaining.

 

2.  That elite player may not fit your scheme.  If your scheme requires the linemen to pull a lot, it wouldn't be smart to draft the elite mauler that excels in a phone booth but does not have the feet to pull on traps, counters and screens.  That elite player would be less than effective in a scheme that does not fit his strengths and weaknesses.

 

3.  Sometimes having a balanced team requires it.  If you recall in 1996, the Jaguars once again had the second pick in the draft.  Boselli was in his second year, and they signed Leon Searcy from Pittsburgh as a free agent.  The Jaguars tackles were already set, and already the best tackle tandem in football.  They could have drafted Ogden at that point, which would have meant they would have dramatically overpaid in free agency for a guard AND for a RT (because either Ogden or Boselli would have to be switched).  Meanwhile, other areas of the team would be neglected.  As it is, the Jaguars drafted Kevin Hardy, who wasn't a bad player at all.  In fact, he was a very good OLB trapped in a horrible scheme that didn't fully utilize his talents.   He was a good all around LB, but wasn't able to have the explosive plays that make for pro bowls due to how he was used until Capers arrived.  That year (1999) he put up double digit sacks and made Pro Bowl.
 

 

I was interested in JW's response.

 

1. My question is a loaded one because, to pass on an elite player, you need to select a player who isn't elite. If there are two elite players and you select one, that doesn't mean you passed on taking an elite player because you drafted A over B. You only pass on an elite player when you select neither elite player A or elite player B.

 

2. I would rather fit my scheme around an elite player than pigeon-hole players into a scheme. Elite players have elite strengths, but they also don't have great deficiencies. If a guard doesn't have the footwork to pull is he truly elite?

 

3. This goes back to my point in #1 and #2. Hardy was an elite player as well. It wasn't like we passed on an elite player to select a player who wasn't. When you have a player with his strengths, you have to put him in position to exploit those strengths. 

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