Future prediction. ESPN Draft Day crew: "So we are going to go commercial before the No 1 pick though because there appears to be a trade in the works. We will let you know the details after this..."

More realistic predicition:
The broadcast team spends more time discussing the Jets' options at 2 than anything the Jags are doing at 1 for the entire clock.

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Agreed 100%, crazy people are still wanting to draft for need after all these years of failed needs drafting.  Take the BPA

So if Trask is your highest rated player on the board at the start of round 2, you take him?

....or you trade the pick to recoup value. If the discrepancy between top and second on your board is that significant, yes, you take him if you can't trade the pick. outside of probably the top ten guys in most darfts, I really think you work in groupings rather than a strict ordinal ranking system.

don't we do this every single offseason?

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So if Trask is your highest rated player on the board at the start of round 2, you take him?

....or you trade the pick to recoup value. If the discrepancy between top and second on your board is that significant, yes, you take him if you can't trade the pick. outside of probably the top ten guys in most darfts, I really think you work in groupings rather than a strict ordinal ranking system.

don't we do this every single offseason?

I agree with this.  If a highly rated QB is there take the trade compensation.

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So you’re going to be clamoring for Trask now? Even after the Jags draft Lawerence?

So rather than building a team around Lawerence to help him succeed (OLine and Playmakers), you would take Trask? 

If Trask is an 88 grade and there is an OLineman, WR or TE with an 87.... you pass on the QB.

Youre the one that brought up Trask, not me.  QB is the most important position,  if you can have 2 franchise QBs and the QB is the highest rated player take him.  A lot of teams are paying 10+ mil for a good 2nd string QB.  If we did that we wouldn't have to and we would also have good trade bait for the future.  Go from no franchise QB to 2?  Im down.  Take the BAP

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So you’re going to be clamoring for Trask now? Even after the Jags draft Lawerence?

So rather than building a team around Lawerence to help him succeed (OLine and Playmakers), you would take Trask? 

If Trask is an 88 grade and there is an OLineman, WR or TE with an 87.... you pass on the QB.

If Zack Wilson fell to the 2nd you wouldn't take him?

I will take Zach Wilson with the number one pick in the draft if Trevor Declares.

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Agreed 100%, crazy people are still wanting to draft for need after all these years of failed needs drafting.  Take the BPA

So if Trask is your highest rated player on the board at the start of round 2, you take him?

In theory wouldn't most QBs just be removed from your board once you take one #1 overall?

I mean... maybe you keep some late round prospects as backup projects.... but if you have Trask rated highly, you no longer keep him on the board after taking Lawrence?

That's just my thought.

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Youre the one that brought up Trask, not me.  QB is the most important position,  if you can have 2 franchise QBs and the QB is the highest rated player take him.  A lot of teams are paying 10+ mil for a good 2nd string QB.  If we did that we wouldn't have to and we would also have good trade bait for the future.  Go from no franchise QB to 2?  Im down.  Take the BAP

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If Zack Wilson fell to the 2nd you wouldn't take him?

I will take Zach Wilson with the number one pick in the draft if Trevor Declares.

Lol

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We do go over this every year and I agree with the person who said that you just use common sense.  You're not going to purposely take a bust just because he's a need.  A BAP also makes little sense if the difference in value isn't significant.  Keep in mind that it is an educated guess more than an exact science.  With maybe an exception near the very top, I think of them more in ranges than a strict order.  For example, he's an "early fourth round pick" versus we have to take the 90th ranked player on our board over the 91st ranked player when the latter is a huge need and the former is not.  

I also highly question the value drops.  In the example of the 13th best player being available while picking 18th, I would ask why didn't the teams in spot 13, 14, 15, 16 or 17 pick him?  Most teams have multiple needs.  Are you really telling me that NONE of those teams had a need at that position?  Not likely.  Even if so, why didn't one of those teams draft him as BAP?  Remember, in order for a player to fall, you must have strictly need based drafting teams ahead of you.  Maybe the guy we think is 13th isn't as good as we think.  Are we confident that we are right and all of those teams are wrong?  Maybe we're the ones overlooking something.  Lastly, if we are confident that one player has clearly superior value and it isn't a need, then you trade down!  If he really is that much better value than the other options, some team with a need at that position will be desperate to trade into your spot.  If no one wants to trade to your spot, then again, you really have to question how good is the value.  Are you really giving up much with going with the need?

The goal is to win.  A draft pick doesn't help the team win if he's sitting the bench.  I know a starter can always have a season ending injury, but is that really playing the odds?  I also look at it from an improvement factor.  Let's say you can pick between a player with a score of 88 or another player with 87.  If you already have an 80 on the roster for the first player's position, that pick only helps you by 8 points.  If you have a 30 at the second position, that pick helps you by 57 points.  In this example, your team improves far more by passing the BAP and taking the need.

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I will take Zach Wilson with the number one pick in the draft if Trevor Declares.

Lol

Who would you take? Wilson has everything you want in a modern day QB. His only knock on him is here doesn't have "ideal" height and weight. Other than that, he has everything you look for. He is a stud.

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So if Trask is your highest rated player on the board at the start of round 2, you take him?

In theory wouldn't most QBs just be removed from your board once you take one #1 overall?

I mean... maybe you keep some late round prospects as backup projects.... but if you have Trask rated highly, you no longer keep him on the board after taking Lawrence?

That's just my thought.

Yes. That’s exactly what I’m doing.

I’m not wasting a high pick on a backup QB. I’m using it to help the team and more importantly my new franchise QB.

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Lol

Who would you take? Wilson has everything you want in a modern day QB. His only knock on him is here doesn't have "ideal" height and weight. Other than that, he has everything you look for. He is a stud.

I'd take Trevor

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Who would you take? Wilson has everything you want in a modern day QB. His only knock on him is here doesn't have "ideal" height and weight. Other than that, he has everything you look for. He is a stud.

I'd take Trevor

You'll never be a clever contrarian.

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We do go over this every year and I agree with the person who said that you just use common sense.  You're not going to purposely take a bust just because he's a need.  A BAP also makes little sense if the difference in value isn't significant.  Keep in mind that it is an educated guess more than an exact science.  With maybe an exception near the very top, I think of them more in ranges than a strict order.  For example, he's an "early fourth round pick" versus we have to take the 90th ranked player on our board over the 91st ranked player when the latter is a huge need and the former is not.  

I also highly question the value drops.  In the example of the 13th best player being available while picking 18th, I would ask why didn't the teams in spot 13, 14, 15, 16 or 17 pick him?  Most teams have multiple needs.  Are you really telling me that NONE of those teams had a need at that position?  Not likely.  Even if so, why didn't one of those teams draft him as BAP?  Remember, in order for a player to fall, you must have strictly need based drafting teams ahead of you.  Maybe the guy we think is 13th isn't as good as we think.  Are we confident that we are right and all of those teams are wrong?  Maybe we're the ones overlooking something.  Lastly, if we are confident that one player has clearly superior value and it isn't a need, then you trade down!  If he really is that much better value than the other options, some team with a need at that position will be desperate to trade into your spot.  If no one wants to trade to your spot, then again, you really have to question how good is the value.  Are you really giving up much with going with the need?

The goal is to win.  A draft pick doesn't help the team win if he's sitting the bench.  I know a starter can always have a season ending injury, but is that really playing the odds?  I also look at it from an improvement factor.  Let's say you can pick between a player with a score of 88 or another player with 87.  If you already have an 80 on the roster for the first player's position, that pick only helps you by 8 points.  If you have a 30 at the second position, that pick helps you by 57 points.  In this example, your team improves far more by passing the BAP and taking the need.

That makes absolute total sense.  Everyone should read that post carefully.  It's totally correct.

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Who would you take? Wilson has everything you want in a modern day QB. His only knock on him is here doesn't have "ideal" height and weight. Other than that, he has everything you look for. He is a stud.

I'd take Trevor

I said if Trevor doesn't declare. Obviously you take Trevor if he declares.

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I'd take Trevor

I said if Trevor doesn't declare. Obviously you take Trevor if he declares.

You said if Trevor declares

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I'd take Trevor

I said if Trevor doesn't declare. Obviously you take Trevor if he declares.

I knew what you meant but in the post, you left out “doesn’t”.

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I said if Trevor doesn't declare. Obviously you take Trevor if he declares.

You said if Trevor declares

Dang it. You are right, lol. But honestly, I would be ecstatic to get Wilson if Trevor doesn't declare.

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https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/news/5-ob...-nfl-draft

Great read from Shipley.

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So if Trask is your highest rated player on the board at the start of round 2, you take him?

In theory wouldn't most QBs just be removed from your board once you take one #1 overall?

I mean... maybe you keep some late round prospects as backup projects.... but if you have Trask rated highly, you no longer keep him on the board after taking Lawrence?

That's just my thought.

Absolutely not!

You still need to consider whether the value of moving away from the pick (if the QB is at the top of your and other team's boards) vs. staying put and picking the next highest player on your board/next highest player at position of need.

If you just cross them all off the list, you could be taking a punter instead of a much higher rated QB. Top of your board, though, right?

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In theory wouldn't most QBs just be removed from your board once you take one #1 overall?

I mean... maybe you keep some late round prospects as backup projects.... but if you have Trask rated highly, you no longer keep him on the board after taking Lawrence?

That's just my thought.

Absolutely not!

You still need to consider whether the value of moving away from the pick (if the QB is at the top of your and other team's boards) vs. staying put and picking the next highest player on your board/next highest player at position of need.

If you just cross them all off the list, you could be taking a punter instead of a much higher rated QB. Top of your board, though, right?

Well I’m not ranking any kickers or punters....  

They’ll never be on my draft board.

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https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/news/5-ob...-nfl-draft

Great read from Shipley.

It touches on why the media types are so upset. They're probably going up end up having to talk about the Jags a lot and as something other than just a punchline to a joke.

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