This is a really neat little idea that you have. A worry that I have is that now you are throwing around not one but two subjective grades. You're grading a player's talent, then his potential to not pan out. I like the idea, but it just seems like there are a lot of moving parts to the scenario.

The chance for success would be fairly subjective but I think weighing positions in a hierarchy would probably be fairly standard based on scheme and particular needs. QB would always be the highest and punter the lowest for most everybody and all of the rest of the positions would probably be similarly weighted relative to other positions for all teams with a slight favoritism towards positions that fit with the style the coaches are trying to implement.

 

Like I said, similar things are used in economics and finance to help estimate value or at least relative value. What it does is it takes subjective inputs and formulates them in a way that makes it possible to compare them objectively. Based on the probability of success and on what positions are most important to you, you can you can come up with a number that can be compared to other players.

 

It takes the guess work out of analyzing the guess work.

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Of course I mean season after season. Guys build winners then get fired on a regular basis. Look at AJ Smith with the Chargers. He built a great roster up and had lots of winning seasons and plenty of players sent to the pro bowl, and he got sacked eventually because his team didn't make it over the hump.

 

What will really be damning is if Caldwell does what Shack Harris did and passes on a guy that turns out to be a super bowl winning talent at QB. As long as he doesn't pass on a guy that goes on to be successful he'll likely get a lot of years of benefit of doubt. If he does pass on a guy that blows up that's when Khan will likely start feeling impatient.

 

Smith likely also lost his job because he let Drew Brees walk away from the team. That and the man was a genuine horse's rear. But I get your point.

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I'm trying to make myself more informed and less opinionated.

Stop saying whatever stupid thing you're talking about and pay attention to all the interesting things I have to say!