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Election Predictions
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(11-06-2024, 07:15 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote:(11-06-2024, 11:39 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: Honest question. Do you guys think you will learn from your insanity and shift course, or continue to go all in? Do you think Shapiro has a real shot though? I think he’d be a good pick, but there’s a reason why he wasn’t chosen as the VP pick.
What in the Wide Wide World of Sports is agoin' on here???
We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today! (11-06-2024, 07:44 PM)Bchbunnie4 Wrote:(11-06-2024, 07:15 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: At this point, I really don't know but I have faith Shapiro or other left center reps would be a good start. Conversely, as much as I really don't MTG and some others, I do like Mike Johnson so I hope he plays a key role moving forward. He seems very bipartisan and even Trump's speech last night was very promising .... Maybe Israel won't be in a war 4 years from now.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
(11-06-2024, 07:50 PM)mikesez Wrote:(11-06-2024, 07:44 PM)Bchbunnie4 Wrote: Do you think Shapiro has a real shot though? I think he’d be a good pick, but there’s a reason why he wasn’t chosen as the VP pick. Nobody will be at war with Trump at the helm.
I just think these numbers are interesting.
2016 - Clinton had 65M in popular votes. 2020 - Biden had a record 81M in popular votes. 2024 - Harris had 67M in popular votes. 14M swing in voters. That's the size of NY, LA and CHI combined give or take. I also keep seeing this narrative online in social media platforms. Someone said the "Silent Majority" won Trump the election. I disagree. I get where they're coming from. I just don't see it as a Silent Majority. In 2016, Trump had 62.9M in popular votes and 304 in Electoral votes. In 2020, he had 74M in popular votes and last night he had 72M popular votes. Fairly consistent. If you watched any of the unbiased media, or, social media videos of his rallies? You would see he has a "cult" following and MAGA has always been prominent. I would say he's had a consistent majority since 2016, and, if anything, it's the inconsistencies on the left that have now cost them a win twice. Clinton had 65M popular votes in 2016. Harris had 67M last night. Biden had a whopping 81M in 2020. I just find it funny and ironic when the left claims that Trump winning again spells sexist pigs in power and gives rise to white men being hateful towards women. Yet, when the Democrats have presented two female candidates now over the last eight years? The turnout is lower than it was for Biden. It's almost as if it's the Democratic men failing to vote for the women they claim to champion for every election cycle. ![]() So, again. Either, 2020 was rigged, or, Democratic men hate women more than they claim Republican men do, or, it's both. ![]() ![]() Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk Test. Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk ![]() "What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."
I think what really hurt the Democrats was sticking with Biden for the election even when it was clear he was having problems and then putting Harris up with no voice from the voters. I know they had to act quickly but it didn't allow them to hear the Democrat voters opinions.
The big difference seems to be Trump gained some of the swing voters who went Biden last time but a lot of them seemed to stay at home for Harris. We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today!
(11-06-2024, 04:41 PM)mikesez Wrote:(11-06-2024, 04:07 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: All you guys need to do to end this stupidity is to flip the script. Dude. It's simple. What republican woman is this blowhard signing up to vote for? None? He doesn't care about womanhood. It's just a useful talking point. (11-07-2024, 01:03 AM)Lucky2Last Wrote:(11-06-2024, 04:41 PM)mikesez Wrote: Please elaborate. So your post number 256 was actually a reply to post 234 alleging that Americans hate women?! I thought your post was reply to 255, about the two party system. much more interesting that way.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
11-08-2024, 01:42 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-08-2024, 01:52 PM by mikesez. Edited 1 time in total.)
Earlier I posted Some Dude's Blog about how Presidential polling, state by state, was deviating from Senate polling, and why Kamala might actually do better than expected for this reason. Turns out the observation was correct but the conclusion was wrong. Even though there was only one split result in 2020 and none in 2016, this election produced at least two (MI and WI) and perhaps four (maybe add NV and AZ) split results. The polling predicted this. If Kamala was as popular as Tammy Baldwin or Elissa Slotkin she might be President Elect today.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
(11-05-2024, 12:28 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: https://youtu.be/lSPNQ82Sq4E I don't think I've ever been wrong on any of these prediction threads no matter the topic with the above response. We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today!
(11-06-2024, 08:32 PM)Caldrac Wrote: I just think these numbers are interesting. Because identity politics is at the core of the Democrat platform. Whether the candidate is unlikable or incompetent is irrelevant. If she's female, that's the end all. If she's female and minority? Why would you NOT vote for her?? They simply can't grasp the concept that moderate and independent voters want qualification as well. Especially if running against a fascist. (11-06-2024, 08:32 PM)Caldrac Wrote: I just think these numbers are interesting. The numbers are remarkable but the simpler explanation is when you stop automatically mailing out absentee ballots applications, fewer people vote. That hurts Dems more than Republicans. But Trump in 2020 told his voters not to do mail in voting, and this time he said they can do it if they want. And so Trump was able to maintain his numbers even with less turnout overall.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
(11-08-2024, 02:16 PM)mikesez Wrote:(11-06-2024, 08:32 PM)Caldrac Wrote: I just think these numbers are interesting. Actually the simpler explanation is the issues of inflation, loss of purchasing power by lower income people, liberal policies that only the far left support caused people to vote for someone other than Kamala. (a far left Queen) The Democratic party was bullied by the far left to adopt this stuff and it led to a loss. The Democrats need to not let their party get hijacked by nut cases. There are more of us than the far left.
A new broom always sweeps clean.
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(11-06-2024, 07:44 PM)Bchbunnie4 Wrote:(11-06-2024, 07:15 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: At this point, I really don't know but I have faith Shapiro or other left center reps would be a good start. Conversely, as much as I really don't MTG and some others, I do like Mike Johnson so I hope he plays a key role moving forward. He seems very bipartisan and even Trump's speech last night was very promising .... Yep, J Shapiro would have been an infinitely better pick than Walz, not that it would have made a difference. Walz stumbled from Day 1 with issues around his service and stolen valor. And then he fumbled it away late with his AOC runs a mean Pick 6 tweet. Like [BLEEP] man, could you fail any harder. Everyone knows you run a mean "pick and roll in the bottom of the 9th with an empty net"
CCL Stroudcrowd1
(11-09-2024, 01:01 AM)Jag149 Wrote:(11-08-2024, 02:16 PM)mikesez Wrote: The numbers are remarkable but the simpler explanation is when you stop automatically mailing out absentee ballots applications, fewer people vote. That hurts Dems more than Republicans. But Trump in 2020 told his voters not to do mail in voting, and this time he said they can do it if they want. And so Trump was able to maintain his numbers even with less turnout overall. I think that explains people switching from Biden 2020 to Trump 2024. It doesn't really explain switching from Biden 2020 to no vote at all.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
(11-09-2024, 01:54 AM)captivating Wrote:(11-06-2024, 07:44 PM)Bchbunnie4 Wrote: Do you think Shapiro has a real shot though? I think he’d be a good pick, but there’s a reason why he wasn’t chosen as the VP pick. Especially when he talked about running a “mean pick 6” in a game that ended in 0-0. ![]()
What in the Wide Wide World of Sports is agoin' on here???
(11-09-2024, 08:45 AM)mikesez Wrote:(11-09-2024, 01:01 AM)Jag149 Wrote: Actually the simpler explanation is the issues of inflation, loss of purchasing power by lower income people, liberal policies that only the far left support caused people to vote for someone other than Kamala. (a far left Queen) When you don't carpet bomb the country with ballots that can be forged it shows in the numbers of people who didn't actually vote in 2020 not voting in 2024? You don't say. You're sooooooo close to admitting it at this point, you just need to go ahead and take that step and say it, "2020 was a stolen election and the numbers bear it out." “An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato
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It's interesting, because Trump did receive many new first-time Trump voters. It's hard to argue that point. The part that is making me scratch my head is why is there no bump in Trump's numbers?
74,173,813 for Trump in 2024 74,223,251 for Trump in 2020. Now, there will be probably another 100k votes added for Trump (I'm speculating), as votes continue to be counted, but even with the huge shift, he will barely get back to his 2020 numbers.
(11-09-2024, 12:27 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: It's interesting, because Trump did receive many new first-time Trump voters. It's hard to argue that point. The part that is making me scratch my head is why is there no bump in Trump's numbers? Still wondering where those 20 million extra democrat votes came from in 2020..
11-09-2024, 12:37 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-09-2024, 12:48 PM by Lucky2Last. Edited 1 time in total.)
Yeah, but it's hard to believe they were able to get 10 MILLION votes. It's clear swing states were targeted, especially by training elections officials and workers, but that's maybe a million? Without proof there was a machine glitch, there's almost no way to justify that many stolen votes. I guess there is the ballot harvesting option, but were Dems THAT good? What was done differently this time around that reduced that number by so much? That's my question. I'd like to find out how many people were first-time Trump voters.
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