Titans game is going to probably determine a lot.  Based on yesterday, looks like we can beat them but probably lose to Baltimore and then Houston again.

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The Jaguars are one of 5 2-win teams.  1 team has 3 wins. 2 teams have 4 wins and 3 teams have 5 wins.

 

The Jaguars on Dec 10 are listed with the 3rd pick with 3 games left.  If the Jaguars win no more games they will receive no worse than the 3rd pick.  Most likely scenario is the Jaguars win one more game and end with no worse than the #6 pick.  Two more wins and the Jaguars end with no worse than the #8 pick.  For the Jaguars to win their last 3 games is very unlikely.

 

Statistically the Jaguars could get a lower pick, but realistically looks like the Jaguars are picking in the top 6.  Of course, 3 more games to go!

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9 is the lowest we can pick now.  So we're guaranteed a Top 10 pick at this point.  A loss to the Ravens next week by itself will put us at 7 at the worst.  Updated Graph:

 

 

I still show the Jags as being no worse than 10, not 9.   Not putting any of the 5 win teams behind them yet, because NO plays Chi, and if NO wins that and the Division, then the rest of the 5 loss teams could lose out. 

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how are we looking on a tie breaker situation with the other 2 win and 3 win teams?

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Based on SOS, it's looking like the Bucs and Oakland have us beat.

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I still show the Jags as being no worse than 10, not 9.   Not putting any of the 5 win teams behind them yet, because NO plays Chi, and if NO wins that and the Division, then the rest of the 5 loss teams could lose out. 

 

It's mathematically impossible for the Jaguars to draft at #10.  You have to account for the tiebreaker. 

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I was wrong about Trent Baalke. 

Based on SOS, it's looking like the Bucs and Oakland have us beat.

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html


According to that, we win the tiebreaker with Oakland but lose the tiebreaker with the Bucs, which is why we would have the #3 spot if it ended today.

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It's mathematically impossible for the Jaguars to draft at #10.  You have to account for the tiebreaker. 

 

Since several teams are at 5 wins, how did your system decide that one team (and only one) had us beaten?   Where are you coming up with your numbers?

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I just dont want Tampa to be in front of us.

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:thanks: Extra Life 2016 is 11/05/16 :thanks:

I just dont want Tampa to be in front of us.

 

Then you should hope the Buccaneers win today because we probably are going to lose in Baltimore.

 

Right now five teams are 2-11: Raiders, Jets, Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Titans. I don't think it really matters which team is in front of us if we don't pick first.  Anywhere in the top five, we can get an elite player.

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Something else to consider is the fact that the Redskins are 3-10 - just one win better than us. We need to hope they don't lose any more games.

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The Jaguars are one of 5 2-win teams.  1 team has 3 wins. 2 teams have 4 wins and 3 teams have 5 wins.

 

The Jaguars on Dec 10 are listed with the 3rd pick with 3 games left.  If the Jaguars win no more games they will receive no worse than the 3rd pick.  Most likely scenario is the Jaguars win one more game and end with no worse than the #6 pick.  Two more wins and the Jaguars end with no worse than the #8 pick.  For the Jaguars to win their last 3 games is very unlikely.

 

Statistically the Jaguars could get a lower pick, but realistically looks like the Jaguars are picking in the top 6.  Of course, 3 more games to go!

 

Assuming we beat Tennessee and the Redskins lose out, we have to take the tiebreaker with them into account.

 

Also, we have to look at Tennessee's next two games: Jets today and Jaguars on Thursday. Mathematical possibilities there (assuming all three teams lose the other two games):

 

Jets and Jaguars win: Titans 2-14, Jets and Jaguars 3-13

Jets and Titans win: Jaguars 2-14, Jets and Titans 3-13

Titans and Jaguars win: Jets 2-14, Titans and Jaguars 3-13

 

How does that work out with the SOS of each team?

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The other thread got side-tracked, so.  With today's loss the Jags were eliminated from the playoffs.  Therefore I wanted to see what is the WORST spot they can draft.

 

Just by not not making the playoffs the Jags can do no worse than the 19th pick because 12 teams make the playoffs.

 

However, in the AFC, in the North and East there are already 5 teams with 7 wins and only 4 at most can get into playoffs, so one of those teams will miss the playoffs and be behind us in draft, so we are at least number 18.


 

Then you can add San Diego who has 6 wins (which is the most Jax can have) but they have the 4th hardest strength of schedule (SOS) and we have 4th easiest, so they will also be behind us, which gives us number 17.

 

Over in the NFC, it also will now take 7 wins minimum to make the wild card.  That leaves Seattle and SF both of whom have 6 wins. They have the 5th and 6th hardest SOS, and will be behind us if they fail to make the playoffs.   That moves us to 15

 

I am not yet penciling in Miami or Baltimore with 6 wins because their SOS is not overwhelmingly better than ours, so...

 

Halfway thru the week's games on 11/23/2014, the Jags are guaranteed to pick no lower than number 15. 

 

If you believe that we might draft 15th, you must also believe in victory.... :woot:

 

WE'RE DRAFTING NO.1 !!!!

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I ain't no monkey... I'm an ape.

David you do realize the post you quoted was 3 weeks old right? 

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OK, with the Jags loss to Baltimore, the Jags best record is 4-12.  That means the previous 5 win teams move behind us, except one of them (we don't know which one) was already penciled in to be NFC South Winner.  And the Panthers and Giants joined the 5 win club, so we are now guaranteed no worse than the 6th draft slot. 

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I'm pulling for the Jets over the Titans today because the Jags-Titans game next week will probably determine who picks higher. Titans have a lower SOS.

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I'm pulling for the Jets over the Titans today because the Jags-Titans game next week will probably determine who picks higher. Titans have a lower SOS.

 

Good point.

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Everyone this is a sad post for a season still going. I feel the same way and have been since game 2

 

I don't see how it can get any worse.

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I'm pulling for the Jets over the Titans today because the Jags-Titans game next week will probably determine who picks higher. Titans have a lower SOS.

 

The reason I wanted the Jets to win was a Titans loss weakens our SOS twice. Because the Dolphins are much better than the Jets, Tennessee's schedule is weaker than ours. (The Chiefs and Chargers have the same record.)

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http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

According to that, we win the tiebreaker with Oakland but lose the tiebreaker with the Bucs, which is why we would have the #3 spot if it ended today.

 

That would make us #2 because if we lose on Thursday, the Titans will have a better record and pick after us.

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