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Coltswarriors · 12-21-2015, 01:53 AM

Quote:

<p style="font-family:arial, verdana, helvetica;color:rgb(34,34,33);">What do you call this CW?

I don't believe it's correct. If HOU wins, Colts are eliminated and Texans are division champs.

Doesn't matter if Colts win or lose.

~~JaguarsWoman~~ · 12-21-2015, 02:10 AM

Quote:I don't believe it's correct. If Houston wins, Colts are eliminated and Texans are division champs.

Doesn't matter if Colts win or lose.

Texans: 7-7 with 2 games left - at best 9-7

Colts: 6-8 with 2 games left - at best 8-8

If the Texans win next week and lose to Jacksonville . . .

8-8 overall, 4-2 in AFC South

If the Colts lose next week and beat Tennessee . . .

8-8 overall, 4-2 in AFC South

So the third tiebreaker will apply if Indy beats Miami, correct? They split their HTH meetings.

Sarg · 12-21-2015, 03:33 AM

The confusion over the Texans' magic number is because if Houston doesn't win both games and Indy beats the Titans next week, they can finish tied in record, with a head-to-head split, tied division record, tied common opponents record and tied in conference record. That pushes the division title to the Strength of Victory tiebreaker.

Both Colts and Texans defeated Titans, Jags, Bucs and each other (since this metric only matters if the teams finish with the same record, they cancel each other out) so those games can be ignored.

The Texans have defeated: Bengals + Jets + Saints ... for a total of 25 opponent wins (or 26 if the Saints win Monday night)

The Colts have defeated: Broncos + Falcons ... for a total of 17 opponent wins (you can safely add either 3 wins for Titans or 5 for Dolphins in - because this tiebreaker is irrelevant if Indy loses both games to finish 6-10)

So the Texans currently have a 3 to 6 game lead in Strength of Victory. Mathematically this can be reversed, so when you look at the official NFL clinching scenarios, an Indy loss is required ... but as things sit right now, the Texans would win the tiebreak. The big question here is whether it ends up on the 3-game side or the 6-game side. To swing 6 games, Indy needs ALL of Broncos-over-Bengals (counts 2), Falcons-over-Saints (counts 2), Titans-over-Texans and Falcons-over-Panthers ... good luck on that last one.

Any Houston win eliminates the Jaguars (via 4-2 vs 3-3 division records).

oldgridiron · 12-21-2015, 04:36 AM

Quote:So the Texans currently have a 3 to 6 game lead in Strength of Victory. Mathematically this can be reversed, so when you look at the official NFL clinching scenarios, an Indy loss is required ... but as things sit right now, the Texans would win the tiebreak. The big question here is whether it ends up on the 3-game side or the 6-game side. To swing 6 games, Indy needs ALL of Broncos-over-Bengals (counts 2), Falcons-over-Saints (counts 2), Titans-over-Texans and Falcons-over-Panthers ... good luck on that last one.

where do you find all this crap listed?

Bullseye · 12-21-2015, 07:33 AM

Quote:Texans: 7-7 with 2 games left - at best 9-7

Colts: 6-8 with 2 games left - at best 8-8

If the Texans win next week and lose to Jacksonville . . .

8-8 overall, 4-2 in AFC South

If the Colts lose next week and beat Tennessee . . .

8-8 overall, 4-2 in AFC South

So the third tiebreaker will apply if Indy beats Miami, correct? They split their HTH meetings.

Think about what you just typed.

If the Colts are 6-8 now and lose next week, they will have 9 losses.

If the Texans were to win next week after an Indy loss, they clinch the division.

Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!

rfc17 · 12-21-2015, 10:22 AM

yep Houston just needs one more win in either game to win the division.

For us to make the playoffs we need to win our remaining two games AND we need Houston to lose to Tenn in week 16 AND Indy to lose to Tenn in week 17. Indy's game to Miami in week 16 is irrelevant as far as we're concerned.

As I look at it I think Indy's game against Miami is irrelevant for them as well. They only win the division if they beat Tenn in week 17 and Houston loses their remaining two games.

________________________________________________
Scouting well is all that matters. Draft philosophy is all fluff.

rfc17 · 12-21-2015, 10:37 AM

Quote:The confusion over the Texans' magic number is because if Houston doesn't win both games and Indy beats the Titans next week, they can finish tied in record, with a head-to-head split, tied division record, tied common opponents record and tied in conference record. That pushes the division title to the Strength of Victory tiebreaker.

Both Colts and Texans defeated Titans, Jags, Bucs and each other (since this metric only matters if the teams finish with the same record, they cancel each other out) so those games can be ignored.

The Texans have defeated: Bengals + Jets + Saints ... for a total of 25 opponent wins (or 26 if the Saints win Monday night)

The Colts have defeated: Broncos + Falcons ... for a total of 17 opponent wins (you can safely add either 3 wins for Titans or 5 for Dolphins in - because this tiebreaker is irrelevant if Indy loses both games to finish 6-10)

So the Texans currently have a 3 to 6 game lead in Strength of Victory. Mathematically this can be reversed, so when you look at the official NFL clinching scenarios, an Indy loss is required ... but as things sit right now, the Texans would win the tiebreak. The big question here is whether it ends up on the 3-game side or the 6-game side. To swing 6 games, Indy needs ALL of Broncos-over-Bengals (counts 2), Falcons-over-Saints (counts 2), Titans-over-Texans and Falcons-over-Panthers ... good luck on that last one.

Any Houston win eliminates the Jaguars (via 4-2 vs 3-3 division records).

Did you mean Jaguars over Texans? Colts split against us but Texans are currently 1-0. For this entire scenario to play out, Houston would have to go 1-1 in their last two games against Tenn and us. Wouldnt the Colts want to the Texans to lose to us and beat Tenn? That way you can ignore all division games from the equation whereas Houston losing to Tenn but beating us would give them an extra bump in SOV. We'll finish with a better record than Tenn.

________________________________________________
Scouting well is all that matters. Draft philosophy is all fluff.

StroudCrowd1 · 12-21-2015, 11:37 AM

Quote:Be careful what you wish for. Brian Hoyer has been fine this season.

Brian Hoyer sucks. If they want him as their franchise QB, that is perfectly fine with me.

Bullseye · 12-21-2015, 11:47 AM

Quote:Brian Hoyer sucks. If they want him as their franchise QB, that is perfectly fine with me.

X1000

Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!

~~JaguarsWoman~~ · 12-21-2015, 12:12 PM

Quote:Brian Hoyer sucks. If they want him as their franchise QB, that is perfectly fine with me.

I did not call him a franchise quarterback.

~~JaguarsWoman~~ · 12-21-2015, 12:16 PM

Quote:Think about what you just typed.

If the Colts are 6-8 now and lose next week, they will have 9 losses.

If the Texans were to win next week after an Indy loss, they clinch the division.

That is what I posted in the playoff scenarios thread: Texans win + Colts loss = AFCS title for Houston. I was showing you what the final records will be if the Texans lose once and the Colts win out.

Sarg · 12-21-2015, 12:21 PM

Quote:where do you find all this crap listed?

I grab the tiebreakers from nfl.com, the official standings and schedules from espn.com and then I work it out manually.

~~JaguarsWoman~~ · 12-21-2015, 12:39 PM

Quote:I grab the tiebreakers from nfl.com, the official standings and schedules from espn.com and then I work it out manually.

The official standings and schedules are on NFL.com too.

What's funny is for about two months everyone thought the AFCS would be won by a losing team.

oldgridiron · 12-21-2015, 02:17 PM

Quote:The official standings and schedules are on NFL.com too.

What's funny is for about two months everyone thought the AFCS would be won by a losing team.

It still possibly will be. 7-9

~~JaguarsWoman~~ · 12-21-2015, 05:49 PM

Quote:It still possibly will be. 7-9

Yes, it is possible, but earlier this season many posters thought it is very unlikely one team could win 9 games. Now there is a much lower chance the AFCS winner will have 9 losses.

oface5446 · 12-22-2015, 01:17 PM

I think the winner will have 7 or 8 wins. I don't see the either the colts or titans winning out. Hasslebeck is done. We can beat the Texans.

~~JaguarsWoman~~ · 12-22-2015, 03:56 PM

Quote:I think the winner will have 7 or 8 wins. I don't see the either the Colts or Titans winning out. Hasslebeck is done. We can beat the Texans.

Matt Hasselbeck should have been ruled out against the Jaguars. For three straight weeks he was unable to finish a game because of multiple injuries.

We can beat the Texans if Brian Hoyer can't get out of the concussion protocol. I would be more optimistic about that one is Brandon Weeden starts.

Coltswarriors · 12-22-2015, 05:41 PM

Rooting for the Titans and Jags the next 2 weeks....

jagherd · 12-22-2015, 06:11 PM

Quote:Rooting for the Titans and Jags the next 2 weeks....

Confident in those hopes are we? Having to rely on the Titans and Jags,, geez lol.

It's possible though, I guess.

jagherd · 12-22-2015, 06:19 PM

Quote:What's funny is for about two months everyone thought the AFCS would be won by a losing team.

To be fair, hardly anyone at the time thought the colts would win games against Denver and Atlanta,, or the Texans winning games against Cincy, NYJ, and even the Saints. Houston had been getting absolutely BLOWN OUT by teams at that point.

To summarize:

Colts won 2 games unexpectedly.

Texans won 2-3 games unexpectedly.

It was looking very dire until then. It's still a possibility a 7-9 team wins (*cough* Jags). But now it's more likely an 8-8 team gets it.

MJF,, did you expect the Colts to beat Denver or the Texans to beat Cincy?