That's what I mean, is how it will affect them long term.  If they fall far, then teams have agreed that it will have a long term affect.

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And FWIW, I think Adams and Thomas are great prospects.  If there are things that affect Allen and Fournette long term and they have big medical red flags, then give me one of those other two guys.

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I hope not. Seams like he needs to room to run to pick up steam. If he is hit at the line and dont get that.


I am not sure he will be effective. I have seen tape of like 5 games. Same thing. He needs space to pick up speed in which to run.

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Bleeding Teal since 1995. The Icon Teal Time Radio aka ctjags

  #Gojags

I hope not. Seams like he needs room to run to pick up steam. If he is hit at the line and dont get that.


I am not sure he will be effective. I have seen tape of like 5 games. Same thing. He needs space to pick up speed in which to run.

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Bleeding Teal since 1995. The Icon Teal Time Radio aka ctjags

  #Gojags

People have got to be seriously stupid to not realize how special he is. I haven't been blown away by a college running back in a long time and he is literally the next big thing in the NFL. I'll bump this post when I'm right.

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People have got to be seriously stupid to not realize how special he is. I haven't been blown away by a college running back in a long time and he is literally the next big thing in the NFL. I'll bump this post when I'm right.

I think so. I really love Fournette and am kinda shocked that we have a shot at him. At the same time though, Adams looks like a game changer.


These are the kinds of hair splitting decisions where I would start thinking about injury history and combine performance to separate guys that I have too close in terms of talent.


If somehow we can get Adams at 4 and then be in position to maybe move up a few spots and take dalvin, that would be ideal for me.

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Coughlin when asked if winning will be a focus: "What the hell else is there? This is nice and dandy, but winning is what all this is about."

I think right now, basically, our 4th overall pick will come down to the two safeties and two running backs. You can come to this conclusion based off of a few details concerning this draft

 

1. Myles Garrett and Jonathan Allen will both be gone in the top 3 picks.

 

Allen and Garrett will more than likely be seen as the two superstar prospects in this draft and both will be drafted in the top 2-3 picks, given the state of the quarterback situation in this draft. Which leads me to my next point...

 

2. While multiple QBs won't go in the top 3, at least one will.

 

While I don't think multiple QBs are likely to go in the first 3 picks in this draft, I do think a team in the top 3 will talk themselves into drafting one. While none of the top QB prospects are sure things, I can see a team being able to convince themselves to draft one of Trubisky, Kizer, or Watson top 3. I think the QB situation may end up being similar to 2014, where we took Bortles at 3 when no one was expecting it. All 3 of the teams picking in the top 3 need QBs and it's just too thirsty of a QB league for at least one to not take one of them.

 

So, moving with the assumption that Garrett and Allen will likely be gone but no other players outside of a QB, we have to narrow down the top needs for this team. I think those are clearly pass rush, OL, RB, and S. Now, by process of elimination we can rule out some of these:

 

OL: No prospect is worth a top 4 pick in this draft

EDGE: Unfortunately, it doesn't seem Barnett will grade out as a top 5 player and the only other edge rusher in this class who could is Tim Williams, and he may have some drug problems. So, assuming Barnett and Williams are both late first-early second round picks, that rules out a pass rusher worth taking in the top 4 (in comparison to talent at other positions)

 

Now that those two positions are ruled out, we are left at RB and S. The main prospects for these two positions are Fournette, Cook, Adams, and Hooker. Now, the strongest indicator against us drafting a safety top 4 is the past draft history. Looking at NFL draft history overall, no DB has been selected in the top 4 in nearly 20 year. Meanwhile, we have precedent for RBs being selected top 4 this decade with Trent Richardson in 2012 and Ezekiel Elliott just last year. Now, looking at Coughlin's drafting history, he's only taken a DB in the first round of the draft 4 times, and none of those times were in the top 10. Furthermore, all of those DBs were CBs. So Coughlin has essentially never drafted a safety in the first round. And of course we already know first  hand Coughlin spent a top 10 pick on a running back before. Given this track record, it doesn't seem likely a safety is to be drafted by us with a top 4 pick. The only thing that could compromise this line of thinking is the fact we will have a gaping hole at safety once Cyp walks, but given the value of the position, they may wait to draft one in the second round if we don't sign a starter in FA.

 

So, that leaves us at running back. The reason I believe it will be Fournette over Cook is because Tom has shown he like bigger backs, and at 6'1'' 230lbs Fournette is clearly the bigger back to Cook's reported 5'10'' 210-215lbs frame. Furthermore, Matt Miller reported hearing concerns about Cook's shoulder surgeries, which were a concern of my own, and fumbles. These factors could have Cook dropping. Furthermore, Fournette is still seen as a special prospect at his position and will likely grade out ahead of Cook for most FOs, including our's. 

 

Therefore, by process of elimination, Fournette is the most likely pick for us as things stand. I think we will try fortify the OL in FA and sign JPP to boost pass edge pass rush and will either sign a starting safety or draft one in the second round.

(Emphasis added)

 

I think your reasoning here is sound.

 

One minor quibble in the portion in bold.

 

Coughlin has taken a S in the first round.

 

In 1998, Coughlin drafted Donovin Darius.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

The running back list is even worse. I'm taking Barron, Whitner, and Landry over guys like Spiller, Bush, and Richardson all day. 

 

After looking at it more, I think that is an excellent hit rate for top 10 positional draft list. Taylor was on his way to being one of the all time great safeties, Berry is on a hall of fame trajectory, Williams was a 5 time pro bowler, Barron/Landry/Whitner are all solid long term starters with a couple of pro bowls sprinkled in, and the worst player on the list Huff at least started for half a decade too. 

 

I think you'd be hard pressed to find a position with a better hit rate among top 10 picks (granted most other positions would have a much larger sample size).

Going back further, there were guys like Kenny Easley taken 4th overall in 1981 (BTW, that was a great draft for safeties.  The first round that year, after Easley, was Ronnie Lott at 8 and Dennis Smith at 15).  Lloyd Burruss and Todd Bell were also taken that year outside the first round).  Bennie Blades was taken 3rd in 1988.  Eric Turner was taken 2nd overall in 1991.

 

Now in fairness, going back further, history has shown that while you can find productive, even great RBs lower in the draft, history has shown that truly special backs are typically found in the top 5 of the draft.  Tony Dorsett was taken 2nd overall in 1977.  The next year, Earl Campbell was taken 1st overall.  In what was quite possible the best draft in history, Eric Dickerson was taken 2nd overall in 1983.  1986 saw Bo Jackson selected first overall (though in fairness, he never played a down for the Bucs and was drafted a year later far lower in the draft).  Barry Sanders was taken 3rd overall in a very talented top 5 in 1989,  Marshall Faulk went 2nd overall in 1994.  Edgerrin James went 4th in 1999.  Ladanian Tomlinson went 5th in 2000.

 

Of course, there are also more busts taken top 5 at RB, but RB was considered far more important then, and accordingly more teams were willing to invest in one high.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Of course, there are also more busts taken top 5 at RB, but RB was considered far more important then, and accordingly more teams were willing to invest in one high.

Of course you find great RBs in the top of the draft too. But it's barely better than a 50/50 proposition for the past generation or so. Probably pretty high miss rate back then too but I'm not doing that much research hah. 

 

Top 10 safeties just don't bust. 

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I think right now, basically, our 4th overall pick will come down to the two safeties and two running backs. You can come to this conclusion based off of a few details concerning this draft

 

1. Myles Garrett and Jonathan Allen will both be gone in the top 3 picks.

 

Allen and Garrett will more than likely be seen as the two superstar prospects in this draft and both will be drafted in the top 2-3 picks, given the state of the quarterback situation in this draft. Which leads me to my next point...

 

2. While multiple QBs won't go in the top 3, at least one will.

 

While I don't think multiple QBs are likely to go in the first 3 picks in this draft, I do think a team in the top 3 will talk themselves into drafting one. While none of the top QB prospects are sure things, I can see a team being able to convince themselves to draft one of Trubisky, Kizer, or Watson top 3. I think the QB situation may end up being similar to 2014, where we took Bortles at 3 when no one was expecting it. All 3 of the teams picking in the top 3 need QBs and it's just too thirsty of a QB league for at least one to not take one of them.

 

So, moving with the assumption that Garrett and Allen will likely be gone but no other players outside of a QB, we have to narrow down the top needs for this team. I think those are clearly pass rush, OL, RB, and S. Now, by process of elimination we can rule out some of these:

 

OL: No prospect is worth a top 4 pick in this draft

EDGE: Unfortunately, it doesn't seem Barnett will grade out as a top 5 player and the only other edge rusher in this class who could is Tim Williams, and he may have some drug problems. So, assuming Barnett and Williams are both late first-early second round picks, that rules out a pass rusher worth taking in the top 4 (in comparison to talent at other positions)

 

Now that those two positions are ruled out, we are left at RB and S. The main prospects for these two positions are Fournette, Cook, Adams, and Hooker. Now, the strongest indicator against us drafting a safety top 4 is the past draft history. Looking at NFL draft history overall, no DB has been selected in the top 4 in nearly 20 year. Meanwhile, we have precedent for RBs being selected top 4 this decade with Trent Richardson in 2012 and Ezekiel Elliott just last year. Now, looking at Coughlin's drafting history, he's only taken a DB in the first round of the draft 4 times, and none of those times were in the top 10. Furthermore, all of those DBs were CBs. So Coughlin has essentially never drafted a safety in the first round. And of course we already know first  hand Coughlin spent a top 10 pick on a running back before. Given this track record, it doesn't seem likely a safety is to be drafted by us with a top 4 pick. The only thing that could compromise this line of thinking is the fact we will have a gaping hole at safety once Cyp walks, but given the value of the position, they may wait to draft one in the second round if we don't sign a starter in FA.

 

So, that leaves us at running back. The reason I believe it will be Fournette over Cook is because Tom has shown he like bigger backs, and at 6'1'' 230lbs Fournette is clearly the bigger back to Cook's reported 5'10'' 210-215lbs frame. Furthermore, Matt Miller reported hearing concerns about Cook's shoulder surgeries, which were a concern of my own, and fumbles. These factors could have Cook dropping. Furthermore, Fournette is still seen as a special prospect at his position and will likely grade out ahead of Cook for most FOs, including our's. 

 

Therefore, by process of elimination, Fournette is the most likely pick for us as things stand. I think we will try fortify the OL in FA and sign JPP to boost pass edge pass rush and will either sign a starting safety or draft one in the second round.

I think your analysis is "spot on." Hopefully, they will draft a safety in the 2nd, as you said, rather than overpaying Cyprien. Both Baker and Obi are excellent prospects and would eventually upgrade that 2nd safety position. 

As great as Fournette looked 2 seasons ago, the ideal scenerio for the Jaguars would be for Allen to somehow drop to the Jaguars. We know how much T.C. values those pass rushers and having Pierre-Paul, Jackson, Allen, Yannick and Fowler would likely make him salivate. They could then take the best safety available in round 2, unless McCaffrey somehow slips past the Patriots. He may not have the ceiling of Fournette, but I just feel he is a much "safer" pick, especially in round 2.

Again, I believe your scenerio is the most likely to happen. Let's just hope Fournette turns out to have the success of Peterson or Fred Taylor and not become a bust like so many running backs selected in the top 10.

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Of course you find great RBs in the top of the draft too. But it's barely better than a 50/50 proposition for the past generation or so. Probably pretty high miss rate back then too but I'm not doing that much research hah.


Top 10 safeties just don't bust.

Mainly because teams won't pull the trigger on a top ten safety unless they're completely blown away.

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Coughlin when asked if winning will be a focus: "What the hell else is there? This is nice and dandy, but winning is what all this is about."

Of course you find great RBs in the top of the draft too. But it's barely better than a 50/50 proposition for the past generation or so. Probably pretty high miss rate back then too but I'm not doing that much research hah. 

 

Top 10 safeties just don't bust. 

 

At the same time, they simply aren't that valuable.

 

Look at Berry.  If it weren't for being tagged he would have been let walk.

 

Walk.

 

Top 10 safeties are perfect selections for playoff teams.

 

For everyone else, they're an absolute waste.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

Mainly because teams won't pull the trigger on a top ten safety unless they're completely blown away.

 

Or are set at every other position.

 

Otherwise, that safety isn't going to win them any games on his own.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

Or are set at every other position.

 

Otherwise, that safety isn't going to win them any games on his own.

Depends what you're drafting him for.  I saw a comparison to Brian Dawkins and that's the kind of guy you're hoping Adams becomes, is an All-Pro safety who is a leader and the heart of your defense.  Intangibles like that are a factor IMO.

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Depends what you're drafting him for. I saw a comparison to Brian Dawkins and that's the kind of guy you're hoping Adams becomes, is an All-Pro safety who is a leader and the heart of your defense. Intangibles like that are a factor IMO.

I think our defense especially would benefit from that.

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Coughlin when asked if winning will be a focus: "What the hell else is there? This is nice and dandy, but winning is what all this is about."

I'm pretty sure Allen will make it to our pick. If he does you draft him and don't look back.

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I'm pretty sure Allen will make it to our pick. If he does you draft him and don't look back.

Hard to say if he will or not, but yeah that's a pretty nice pick either way.  

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i would happily pass on Jonathan Allen at #4.

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I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out of left field and select Ryan Ramcyzk.


Edit: I'm not saying I want him or I'd like the pick, just saying it wouldn't shock me.

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I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out of left field and select Ryan Ramcyzk.


Edit: I'm not saying I want him or I'd like the pick, just saying it wouldn't shock me.

That would shock me for sure.  With so many potential studs, I don't see how they can screw this up, but taking an offensive lineman at 4 would be trying to do just that.

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