Not to diminish those ofher guys, but pollard was meh, and harrison wasnt anything special prior to manning's arrival. We know good qbs make players look better. That should be no difft with blake.

Harrison wasn't anything special?

 

Harrison was a first round pick prior to Manning's arrival, and Sterling Sharpe called him that draft class' most complete receiver.

 

Manning had nothing to do with how he came in and out of his breaks, the separation he gets, the routes he ran, his ability to avoid the jam, etc.  Manning got him the ball after his skills got him open.  Still better than anyone Bortles had at WR last year.

 

Pollard wasn't a star TE, but he was big and fast enough to attack the seam.  Still better than any TE Bortles had last year.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

To the OP...

 

Your post raises several questions, but I will start with one theme.

 

At what point, if at all, does the overwhelming paucity of talent on the roster at their arrival factor into the equation of whether to retain them another year or not?

 

If you don't think that the roster sorely lacked talent when they got here, to what do you attribute the bad record prior to their arrival?  What would ordinarily be the effect on a team having gotten mediocre productivity at best from the ten years of first round draft picks prior to 2013?

 

If you agree that the team lacked talent when they arrived, how long is a reasonable time to expect the team to go from a lack of talent to playoff contention?

 

If the team lacked talent, is it possible Bradley is coaching well, but it isn't evident due to the many holes on the roster?

 

If the team lacked talent at the start but is more talented now, how much more talented?  If it is significantly more talented, then why should Caldwell be in danger?

 

Can surrounding talent level have a detrimental effect on QB play?  If not, explain.  If so, is that effect exacerbated by inexperience at QB?  Why would that not apply to Bortles?

1. There is no doubt this team lacked serious talent.  I was calling for Gene Smith's head 2 years after he got here while others were screaming "stay the course" With that said that was 3 years ago in a time when drastic turnarounds happen all the time.    To be the devils advocate Staying with the current regime in another disaster season could be just as harmful as replacing him.  This team has had 3 consecutive years picking in the top 5 with lots of cap money.  This should be a much improved roster.

 

2. I don't know about Bradley. He maybe a good motivator but does that mean he's a good coach?   Some people are good in one area (lebeau example).  I have seen some bad managed games. 

 

3. I don't know if this team is that much more talented then the start.  The 2011 team went 2-14 while the Caldwell team went 4-12 and then backtracked to 3-13.  Cutting out all the crap you are as good as your record says you are. 

 

4. Bortles has all the tools(Oline, offseason, high round receivers/Thomas)  right now if the plan comes to fruition.  There has been draft picks and free agency spent on the offensive line and receivers.  Bortles himself is a top 3 pick.  If it's another disaster season then maybe the plan is not working out and hit the reset button.  

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But the sky is falling bro, you didn't know

Wow this kind of sarcasm was gong on the "IN GENE WE TRUST" campaign when Gene "The Genius" was finding diamonds in the rough.  DeJA Vu I was one of the idiots Questioning his logic while many were drinking the koolaid.  Dont mind me

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An nfl coach can't win 11 or 12 games his first 3 seasons and expect to be back for a 4th. What kind of reality do people think this is?

According to the "intelligence" of the Jaguars message boards win don't really matter.  Take a big gulp of the teal koolaid and don't worry about wins.  Gus and Caldwell get 10 years to put this roster together.

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Jack Del Rio got 5 wins with that squad and Blaine Gabbert. Caldwell and Bradley disposed of those they didn't want and replaced them with players they did want. What happened? What got better?

 

After the second draft and second free agency period and more dismissals the team was populated by players of Caldwell and Bradley's preference. What happened? What got better?

 

Shad Khan fired 4 coaches in 2 years on his soccer club, I don't think he's going to be that tolerable of another 3-win season.

 

Regards......................the Chiefjag

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Jack Del Rio got 5 wins with that squad and Blaine Gabbert. Caldwell and Bradley disposed of those they didn't want and replaced them with players they did want. What happened? What got better?

 

After the second draft and second free agency period and more dismissals the team was populated by players of Caldwell and Bradley's preference. What happened? What got better?

 

Shad Khan fired 4 coaches in 2 years on his soccer club, I don't think he's going to be that tolerable of another 3-win season.

 

Regards......................the Chiefjag

 

Thank you sir!  They say JDR had more talent to work with and it's 'asinine' to compare the two eras.  JDR came after the TC overhaul and had to do similar patch work as the current era.  Only, we were still reeling from TC cap jail so his resources were limited, unlike now.  Bradley simply needs to show a lot more this year.  I hope we see a drastic turn around.  He has underwhelmed, in spite of the talent factor.

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Success is a journey, not a destination.  Go all out Mighty Jaguars.

OP (Jaguarmvp),

 

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions and give more insight into your thinking.  Unfortunately on this computer, I do not have the quote feature (and strangely I can't even copy and paste), but I will do what I can to answer your points accurately and intelligently.

 

1.  I am glad you acknowledge the team lacked serious talent when Dave and Gus arrived thanks to Gene Smith.  Their task in rebuilding this team was herculean.  I think as far as talent acquisition goes, Caldwell has done a pretty good job replenishing the roster (more on this later).  Regarding your Devil's advocacy about "drastic turnarounds happen[ing] all the time," usually, the drastic turnarounds that happen are not immediate turnarounds, and are usually the sum total of years of adding talent that finally comes together, or there are star caliber players already on the roster upon which a turnaround can reasonably be expected.  Right now, only about three relatively recent examples of "drastic turnarounds" leap to mind:  The 1999 St. Louis Rams, the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs, and last year's Texans.  The 1999 Rams were the culmination of shrewd drafting/talent acquisition over at least a three year period prior to their breakthrough year.  Between 1995 and 1999, the Rams got progressively worse, winning 7, 6, 5, and 4 games until winning the Super Bowl in 1999.  An outside observer would think the team was headed in the wrong direction.  However, during that time, the Rams added DE Kevin Carter (1995), RT Fred Miller (1996), LT Orlando Pace (1997), DE Grant Wistrom (1998), RB Robert Holcombe (1998), DE Leonard Little (1998), QB Kurt Warner (1998) and WR Az-Zahir Hakim (1998), and finally RB Marshall Faulk, WR Torry Holt, and CB Dre Bly.  In addition, Isaac Bruce was on the roster in 1999, being added circa 1994.  It's not as though Vermeil and company set the world on fire immediately upon their arrival.  As demonstrated above, their wins were trending in the wrong direction.  It took them a while to assemble all of those pieces and for them to learn what they had (remember, they traded for QB Trent Green while they had Kurt Warner;  the plan was to start Trent Green until he hurt his knee) and develop sufficiently.  While a drastic turnaround, it was far from an immediate turnaround.

 

The second example I listed is Kansas City, who finished 2-14 in 2012 and went to 11-5 in 2013.  They changed coaches from Romeo Crennel (a better coordinator than HC) to Andy Reid, who is a fine HC.  Certainly that played a role.  However, the 6 Pro Bowl Caliber players already on the roster helped a lot in that regard (RB Jamaal Charles, LB Justin Houston, LB Derrick Johnson, LB Tamba Hali, and S Eric Berry.  Reid came in and stabilized the QB position with Alex Smith.  We both acknowledge, unfortunately, that neither Caldwell nor Bradley had that nucleus of talent at their disposal when they arrived.  While 11-5 would be a lofty goal for this team, the evidence is clear that it was unrealistic for the team to follow this model of turnaround.

 

The final example of the drastic turnaround I listed were last year's Texans, who finished at 9-7 and just out of the playoffs after finishing 2-14 the year before.  Their model follows the Chiefs example.  There was already a lot of talent already on their roster:  J.J. Watt, Andre Johnson, LT Duane Brown, LB Cushing, RB Arian Foster.  The seemingly unprecedented meltdown at the QB position by Matt Schaub, who threw devastating pick 6 INTs in an incredible number of consecutive games which led to their collapse.  Once they got some level of competence at the QB position in addition to the new coach, their turnaround was possible.  While Bortles needs to elevate his game to elevate the team like the Texans did at their QB spot (and like the Chiefs did with Smith), without question, this turnaround is not applicable to the Jaguars situation.

 

2.  The question regarding Bradley is fair.  He may prove ultimately to be a better coordinator than Head coach.  But he hasn't had the talent to give a fair evaluation on his coaching ability until now.

 

3.  Then explain the Rams.  If you examine their history, they were trending in the wrong direction.  Under your rationale and looking solely at the records, they weren't adding any talent between 1995-and 1998.  But clearly that wasn't the case.  To extend this argument further, the 70s Steelers did not add talent between 1969-1971, but we know that wasn't the case with Bradshaw, Greene and Harris.  The Cowboys of 1988-1990 didn't add any worthwhile talent because they all had losing records, but an examination of those drafts showed Irvin, Norton, Aikman, Johnston, Stepnoski and Emmitt Smith.  You may ask why didn't that logic apply to Gene Smith?  Because none of Gene Smith's first round picks really showed too much promise immediately, except for Justin Blackmon. 

 

4.  I think that can't be determined unless we know exactly how the season develops.  I think if Bortles plays well and struggles with injuries (either to himself or his surrounding cast) and the team underachieves, I think it's too soon to pull the plug on Bortles Bradley or Caldwell.  However, if all of the players are healthy and simply stink on ice, then maybe you look to reset.  I don't think this last way is likely at all.  I think if the team underachieves this year (less than 5 wins), injury will be the primary cause.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

To ChiefJag, see my second response to jaguarmvp on the Rams/Steelers/Cowboys analysis.

 

BritJag...the level of rebuild/patchwork was nowhere close to what Caldwell/Bradley had to do here.

 

Without doing anything, JDR, upon his arrival, had an in his prime FT, Jimmy Smith, Brunell, Naoele, Meester, Mo Williams, Stroud and Henderson.  Now Shack had to add several key pieces, but this team was much closer to winning than what Bradley was given to work with.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I'm not into the whole "the sky is falling" level of thinking. However, I certainly think year three is extremely reasonable to expect some improvements across the board. We've now had three top-5 picks and have had the most (or close to it) cap space each off-season. I think that is ample time to at least give us a semi-competitive product. I don't care how bad the roster was prior to Caldwell's arrival. He's now hand-picked this entire roster, save for 4-5 players, and this will be year three of the rebuild.

 

I'm not going to come into this season expecting 10 wins and a playoff berth. I believe that here in year 3, we should see a competitive roster. To me, that means games that we are still competing in until the clock hits 0. I'm probably one of Bradley's biggest critics, but I'm not ready to call for his head. Now, if the team looks like it did last season, please kick Gus to the curb.

 

To me, improvement is the reasonable expectation for this season. 

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Method...I think this is fair, considering Bradley himself said he didn't expect the team to pick high again next year.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

So either we have ice cream socials or have a megalomaniac with player favorites running the show.

 

Say what you want about JDR but his teams came out well coached and adjusted as the game went on.  Gus doesn't prepare his team in that way.

Um adjustment, from JDR? I don't know about all that. I liked JDR, but he played his way, and his way only. He liked smash mouth football, and when we had the talent we would win, and when we didn't (cause of Gene) JDR took the fall. I never thought he was a bad coach. In fact, I felt he was good, but a adjuster or innovator he is not. Thats why the great coaches like Belichek took him to school when they played us (well that and Brady).

 

All that being said. I really like the current regime. And I want to see what Gus can do with a bit more talent. I don't think we have it this year yet (cause it takes time to develop). But I predict 5-11 and Gus gets to keep his job due to an obvious improvement from our players/offensive/defensive performance.

 

I don't believe this is easily a 6-8 win team, quite frankly I think that would be an over-achievement on our part, or BB will have developed much faster than I expected. Baby steps before we run. We got one more year of mediocrity before we really take off, but I expect real improvements. No more 5th worse in the league offense or defense.

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Yes, it's improvement, but it's Blaine Gabbert 2012 level improvement. - Pirkster

http://youtu.be/ouGM3NWpjxk The Home Hypnotist!

http://youtu.be/XQRFkn0Ly3A Media on the Brain Link!
 

Peyton must store oxygen in that forehead of his. No way I'd still be alive after all that choking.

 

Caldwell and Gus were certainly in a tougher situation than JDR and co. But some of it was self inflicted (d smith, giving up on Monroe). Now they have a roster filled with their guys. The excuses have to stop sometime, and I think Gus knows that's this year.

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Caldwell and Gus were certainly in a tougher situation than JDR and co. But some of it was self inflicted (d smith, giving up on Monroe). Now they have a roster filled with their guys. The excuses have to stop sometime, and I think Gus knows that's this year.

Just curious, if we kept Monroe and Smith, what would be the difference in the W-L record?

 

Before you answer, consider that before Gus and Dave got here, the team finished 2-14 with Monroe and Smith.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Firing Gus would be bad, firing Caldwell would be a disaster and set the franchise back another 5 years.

 

Caldwell has been the best GM/drafter in the history of this franchise in my opinion - His first draft was pretty weak but it was a weak draft overall and he'd been here 10 minutes so we'll give him a pass on that but these past 2 drafts have been brilliant. Getting talented players multiple rounds after projections (Colvin, Telvin Smith, Greene, Bennett) and picking up some fantastic talent in rounds 3-7 (Colvin, Telvin, DRob, McCray, Linder etc). Coughlin was good but he lucked out with the easy start the Jags and Panthers got then got us into cap trouble. Shack was okay - some big hits and some even bigger misses. Gene sucked, his free agency classes are some of the worst I've ever seen, he overpaid guys like Thomas and Lewis based on one good season and his drafts sucked too, drafting far too many small school players and trading up far too often for average talent.

 

Caldwell should be the GM of this franchise for a very long time if he keeps producing like he has done so far. These guys didn't "luck" out and end up with Andrew Luck, they came in to a bad aging roster with no real direction, no real scheme and have built a team from scratch. They started with the worst QB in the league, the worst group of receivers, one of the worst o-lines (Meester was bad in his final year or two, Whimper was one of the worst football players I've ever seen), MJD on decline.

 

Also - I disagree with clfcrn777 - Daryl Smith is 33 years old, 3 years older than Poz. Keeping Smith around would have been pointless, we've got better/younger/cheaper at that position with Telvin Smith (24 years old, 5th round draft pick contract, better scheme fit). Monroe is a fair shout but he wanted a huge contract and the Jags in 2013 had a long rebuilding road ahead, why waste the money on him?

 

It's easy to look at records and say things are bad - I'd say the Jags where a much better team in 2014 than 2013 despite having a worse record. If we finish 1-15 in 2015 but lose every game by 3 points or less would that be a terrible season?

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Firing Gus would be bad, 

 

It's easy to look at records and say things are bad - I'd say the Jags where a much better team in 2014 than 2013 despite having a worse record. If we finish 1-15 in 2015 but lose every game by 3 points or less would that be a terrible season?

 

No, it won't be a terrible season.  It would be a despicable, laughable, particularly scathing one.  It's not a beauty contest but about wins and losses.  They don't give points for how well you lost, or how close you came.  It's the NFL mate.

 

I get the point.  We made strides last year despite a worse record.  Strides time are over.  If you don't tell yourself that, you wallow in nonentity.  When you don't expect Ws, you resort to losing mantras like we are making strides, we are competing.

 

5-11, 9-7, 12-4....that was Jack Del Rio's first 3 seasons with the club, after an overhaul from the TC era, with a roster that overachieved way beyond its talent level.  That factored heavily in to why he 'won' the Oakland job, I'm sure.

 

4-12, 3-13, 1-15, for Gus but don't fire him because they are a 'better' team due to better losses.  I strongly disagree.  It's a not for long, results league.

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Success is a journey, not a destination.  Go all out Mighty Jaguars.

The idea that Del Rio would beat Gus with the same talent is patently absurd. Players quit on JDR because he was two-faced and a meathead. Players who should have quit played hard for Gus last year. There is no debate here about who is the better coach.

 

 

Not saying JDR is/was better but being a better motivator is not being a better coach.

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Jack Del Rio got 5 wins with that squad and Blaine Gabbert. Caldwell and Bradley disposed of those they didn't want and replaced them with players they did want. What happened? What got better?

 

After the second draft and second free agency period and more dismissals the team was populated by players of Caldwell and Bradley's preference. What happened? What got better?

 

Shad Khan fired 4 coaches in 2 years on his soccer club, I don't think he's going to be that tolerable of another 3-win season.

 

Regards......................the Chiefjag

Someone forgot both A. the Mike Mularkey era in 2012 where we went 2-14 and B. that JDR was fired midway through 2011 and that Mel Tucker was head coach for the last five games including two of our wins leaving JDR's record 3-11 that year.

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There's alot of reading in this thread. whew!!

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If you think I offended you, don't worry, I meant to. #facts 
  
#iamlegend

Is it too far off to say that any of JDR's teams could be all of GB's teams? I think this is the last year we have Gus cheering on the sidelines.

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I ain't no monkey... I'm an ape.

I'm willing to bet a 4 win season wouldn't even get Gus or Dave canned.

 

Caldwell is tied to Bortles, imo. Bortles will be entering season 2, I think Caldwell has until Bortles 4th season, at least. And I think, barring something ridiculously unpleasant, Bortles will be given his full rookie contract to keep the job and progress as the starter.

 

I think Gus is Caldwell's guy until it looks like he isn't developing the talent right. A shift in coaches would only come if Caldwell needs it to buy him some time, imo.

 

For those who don't like Gus, Dave, or Bortles, hoping and wishing they blow it all up and start over again, please... stop...

This is our team, our team builder, our leader, and our quarterback for the foreseeable future. They'll all be here at the start of the 2016 season too. Bank on it.

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