Because when a right plan is in place there is this little thing called progress.  Since last season there has been 0 of that and no evidence of this plan working. 

 

I don't know what you have been watching, but I for one see progress.

---

There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

I don't know what you have been watching, but I for one see progress.

Where?  I have seen 4 blowout losses so far

---

There is little point in rehashing the bad bad W-L record our Jaguars have endured over the past few years.  We've endured it first hand.  Nevertheless, it is understandable that fans, weary from all of the losing, have a visceral response to the product and throw any and everyone under the bus, from players to coaches to the GM to the owner.  However, what often gets lost in the moment of frustration is a broader perspective.

 

One of the things people, including myself, people have cited to explain the poor performance of the team thus far is the role of inexperience.  Yesterday, the Jaguars played SIX (6) rookies yesterday, starting 5-all on the offensive side of the ball.  Those rookies were:

 

QB Blake Bortles

WR Allen Robinson

WR Allen Hurns

C Luke Bowanko

RG Brandon Linder

 

and RB Storm Johnson had playing time.

 

If I had to read the tea leaves, I suspect Johnson will be a starting RB for the Jaguars soon.

 

Also keep in mind Marqise Lee has started two games thus far this season, and he likely would have started at least one of the last two barring his own injuries.

 

In an attempt to gain a broader perspective and better understanding on our losing, I examined the starting lineups of the worst teams in football dating back to 1980.  No team I examined had a record of better than 4 wins.

 

Of all of the teams with 4 wins or less dating back to 1980, only three (3) teams besides this year's Jaguars team has had 6 or more rookies in the starting lineup at any one time.  Number in parenthesis is the number of rookie starters, according to profootballreference.com   Those teams were the 1983 Oilers (8), the 1999 Cleveland Browns (6), and the 2001 Buffalo Bills (6). 

 

A few points of explanation are in order.  First, the 1983 draft was known as the best and deepest draft in NFL history.  It was 12 rounds in length and only 28 teams picked.  Guys like Richard Dent and Mark Clayton were found in the 8th and 9th rounds.  Secondly, the 1999 Cleveland Browns were an expansion team.  Finally, with all of those teams, the rookie starters were evenly distributed between the offense and defense.  With the Jaguars, all of the rookies that started yesterday were on offense.  Based upon history, that is a most unusual distribution of talent.

 

But surprisingly, very few of the teams had as many rookie starters as this years Jaguars.

 

I see several possibilities to explain this.

 

1.  Coaches are generally loathe to start rookies, even in rebuilding situations like the one we face here in Jacksonville.  I think this is due to one of two related factors below: 

 

2.  rookies typically are not refined enough in their games to readily supplant starters in their rookie years.

 

3.  Rookies make mistakes that make it more difficult for teams to win, even in rebuilding situations.

 

4.  The Jaguars roster was so talent depleted coming into this offseason, the team had no real choice but to start rookies, even in positions where more experienced players were preferable;

 

5.  Maybe despite the current record, the Jaguars rookie class was actually a very good one.

 

This ties into my second conclusion.  Just because the team is in the midst of a horrible stretch of losing, that fact in itself does not necessarily mean the team is headed in the wrong direction.  There are several teams within the parameters of this study that leap to mind.

 

The 1985 Buffalo Bills finished with a record of 2-14, which followed a 2-14 record the year before.  However, despite finishing that season with a 2-14 record, they wound up drafting a couple of Hall of Famers in that class who would eventually take them to four straight Super Bowls:  DE Bruce Smith and WR Andre Reed.

 

The Carolina Panthers hav had several disastrous seasons in their history.  2001 was one of those seasons, and they finished 1-15 that year.  However, their rookie class that year produced three quality starters that played in their one Super Bowl year a couple of seasons later:  DT Kris Jenkins, LB Dan Morgan, and S Deon Grant.

 

Of course, Dallas' ascent to champion is a well chronicled journey.  Landry's last year in Dallas (1988) was 3-13, while Jimmy Johnson's first year in Dallas (1989) was 1-15.  Even though their records were horrible those two seasons (4-28 overall), they had several key contributors to Super Bowl teams already on that roster, which included HOF WR Michael Irvin, Pro Bowl LB Ken Norton Jr., 5 time Pro Bowl G Nate Newton, OL Kevin Gogan, and 1989 rookie draft picks HOF QB Troy Aikman, and pro bowlers FB Daryl Johnston and C Mark Stepnoski.

 

Of course, history is also replete with teams that never ascended from the dregs to above mediocre within a reasonable period of time.  But the point is it is probable better days lay ahead for us despite the poor record over the past few years, and it is quite possible we'll see the results sooner (within the next year) rather than later.

Excellent points man. During this horrendous time frame of sucking, I always look back to history of other teams. The Detroit Lions used to be where we currently are. They were the laughing stock of the league. And the 49ers were also for like 8 or 9 years. One of my best friends is a die hard niners fan. I respect him because he went through the filth they had previously. We are currently doing the same thing. It can only get better and we do have some players that could turn out to be gems. We just have to suffer some more and hope for the best. Everybody seems to jump ship so early. I've had those inclinations, but the teal still bleeds through. So, here we go again.


GO JAGS!

---

Let's Get Em!!!! Go Jags!

Where?  I have seen 4 blowout losses so far

You consider the Eagles loss a blowout?

 

We had a 3 score lead after halftime and had a FG lead headed into the 4th quarter.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

You consider the Eagles loss a blowout?

 

We had a 3 score lead after halftime and had a FG lead headed into the 4th quarter.

WE still lost by 3 scores so yes it was a blowout.  The team didn't show up in the second half

---

You consider the Eagles loss a blowout?

 

We had a 3 score lead after halftime and had a FG lead headed into the 4th quarter.

 

After the fluke 1st quarter it wen't downhill from there to a 3 score loss. 

---

I hope this team does not turn out like the browns, oilers, and lions.

 

The browns sucked for many years until they moved to Baltimore and became the ravens.

 

The oilers sucked for many many years and the Lions haven't won a playoff game in an eon.  No thanks

---

In an attempt to gain a broader perspective and better understanding on our losing, I examined the starting lineups of the worst teams in football dating back to 1980.  No team I examined had a record of better than 4 wins.

 

That's a lot of work. ProFootballReference.com is spotty about listing starters.


 

Of all of the teams with 4 wins or less dating back to 1980, only three (3) teams besides this year's Jaguars team has had 6 or more rookies in the starting lineup at any one time.  Number in parenthesis is the number of rookie starters, according to profootballreference.com   Those teams were the 1983 Oilers (8), the 1999 Cleveland Browns (6), and the 2001 Buffalo Bills (6). 

 

Looking at their records after those seasons does not bode well. The Oilers had three more losing seasons before going 9-7. The Browns managed one 9-7 season in 2001 before returning to their losing ways. The Bills also managed but one winning (9-7) season in the next four years.


 

5.  Maybe despite the current record, the Jaguars rookie class was actually a very good one.

 

I thought it was a good draft. No one is threatening the Pro Bowl so far, although Bortles and Hurns have flashed at times. Bortles is playing because he's far better than Henne, but that's division by zero. Lee and Robinson have been just guys so far. Linder and Bowanko would not start for most teams (if any) but are playing OK. Johnson looked good Sunday in his first playing time, although he didn't look like much in preseason.


 

Of course, Dallas' ascent to champion is a well chronicled journey.  Landry's last year in Dallas (1988) was 3-13, while Jimmy Johnson's first year in Dallas (1989) was 1-15.  Even though their records were horrible those two seasons (4-28 overall), they had several key contributors to Super Bowl teams already on that roster, which included HOF WR Michael Irvin, Pro Bowl LB Ken Norton Jr., 5 time Pro Bowl G Nate Newton, OL Kevin Gogan, and 1989 rookie draft picks HOF QB Troy Aikman, and pro bowlers FB Daryl Johnston and C Mark Stepnoski.

 

You might also want to bring up the name 'Herschel Walker.' It's a shame Caldwell couldn't trade MJD for a boatload of high draft picks.


 

---

                                                                          

"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"

After the fluke 1st quarter it wen't downhill from there to a 3 score loss. 

 

Yeah, but I wouldn't consider it a blowout.  That was a game that was alot closer than the final score indicated...  Just saying...

---

Patience may be wearing a little thin.

 

That's too bad, because it's all we have.  I guess the only thing I'd like to add is that Aikman and Manning were on awful teams in their first year - and that in this day and age, you just can't win without a guy behind center that's at least pretty good.

 

At this point, there's no such thing as rebuilding.  There is only building, because we are 3 years out of .500 ball.  The pieces are being assembled, but if this is going somewhere, it will be at early 70s Steelers or early 90s Cowboys pace.

---

After a couple more years of losing they'll fire this gm and coach and wanna start another rebuild. Then these same folks on here will be saying you gotta have patience and wait for these new players to develop. Im in the fool me once(Gene Smith) shame on you, fool me twice(Caldwell) shame on me mindset. They're just as unproven as Gene Smith was and quite frankly they've done just about the same as him. So until they put up wins they shouldn't be commended. Not knocking those who do but don't yall bag on the folks who are pessimistic about this approach either.

---

After a couple more years of losing they'll fire this gm and coach and wanna start another rebuild. Then these same folks on here will be saying you gotta have patience and wait for these new players to develop. Im in the fool me once(Gene Smith) shame on you, fool me twice(Caldwell) shame on me mindset. They're just as unproven as Gene Smith was and until they put up wins they shouldn't be commended. Not knocking those who do but don't yall bag on the folks who are pessimistic about this approach either.

If you don't like it...bye?

---

Yeah, but I wouldn't consider it a blowout. That was a game that was alot closer than the final score indicated... Just saying...

Considering the final score was a cheap defensive TD in the final seconds of the game I agree.

---

"Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry, he's a mile away and barefoot."

If you don't like it...bye?

You show me the door.

---

The problem I have with all of these positive post is they all are based on "ifs"

 

If this player becomes good

 

If the plan works

 

If this guy is a difference maker

 

It's all "ifs"

IF I had a crystal ball that told me this would be 2013 part 2, I would have spent my money on something else

---

After a couple more years of losing they'll fire this gm and coach and wanna start another rebuild. Then these same folks on here will be saying you gotta have patience and wait for these new players to develop. Im in the fool me once(Gene Smith) shame on you, fool me twice(Caldwell) shame on me mindset. They're just as unproven as Gene Smith was and quite frankly they've done just about the same as him. So until they put up wins they shouldn't be commended. Not knocking those who do but don't yall bag on the folks who are pessimistic about this approach either.

So what approach to turning the team around would you take?


I am not knocking you for your frustration. I get it.


But your closing line said you were pessimistic about this approach.


What should Caldwell have done differently, and what results would we be seeing now, given what he inherited from Gene Smith and the early schedule?

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

So what approach to turning the team around would you take?


I am not knocking you for your frustration. I get it.


But your closing line said you were pessimistic about this approach.


What should Caldwell have done differently, and what results would we be seeing now, given what he inherited from Gene Smith and the early schedule?

 

1. Hire a coach with a proven winning record as an NFL head coach ... John Gruden, Bruce Arians, 
Andy Reid ... (those were my top 3 choices at the time).

 

2. Keep some of the better players, Knighton, Daryl Smith, Cox, Lowery. None were expensive. Ball and Miller weren't particularly downgrades, but not upgrades either. Smith and Lowery are better than what we have.


 

3. Keep Monroe, and trade down if at all possible rather than drafting Joeckel. Why draft a replacement for the one really good player on the team?


 

 

4. Sign one of the seven(!) good RTs available in free agency in 2013.

---

                                                                          

"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"

So what approach to turning the team around would you take?

I am not knocking you for your frustration. I get it.

But your closing line said you were pessimistic about this approach.

What should Caldwell have done differently, and what results would we be seeing now, given what he inherited from Gene Smith and the early schedule?

You have to find a way to not have as many rookie starters playing at once. That's a recipe for disaster and you shouldn't put paying customers though basically 16 preseason games knowing the outcome will be bad. I dont get paid to figure it out but you have to get more good productive young vets in here to blend with this youth that will go out and compete. All that money in cap space and we sign dudes who are ready to retire looking for one more check and others who were reported not good(Beadles, Gerhart).


When you have guys like Willie Young and Emmanuel Sanders in the building you can't let them leave. More money and theyre probably signing a contract and not getting on a plane going to other teams. Look what both of them are doing for other teams. Even players like Cliff Avril was out there for a long time two years ago and we didn't even bring him in to talk. And he's from here. Like Malabar said keep some of the players we let leave that were good on short contracts until you draft talent that's equal to or better than them.

---

Fans of this team should have doctorates with all the lessons going on..

---

1. Hire a coach with a proven winning record as an NFL head coach ... John Gruden, Bruce Arians,
Andy Reid ... (those were my top 3 choices at the time). Two of those coaches weren't coming here and you know it. Arians could have been a possibility but chances are he was going to choose a team with a better QB situation at the time.

2. Keep some of the better players, Knighton, Daryl Smith, Cox, Lowery. None were expensive. Ball and Miller weren't particularly downgrades, but not upgrades either. Smith and Lowery are better than what we have.


Knighton wasn't re-signing. He made it clear he wanted to play for JDR and a contender. I didn't agree with the Cox move at the time, but that turned out to be a good decision for the FO and 20 million saved. They kept Lowery, he just couldn't shake off the injuries/concussions. Daryl Smith is the only move I can agree with you on.
3. Keep Monroe, and trade down if at all possible rather than drafting Joeckel. Why draft a replacement for the one really good player on the team?


Its possible that they discussed contracts with Monroe and he indicated he either wasn't re-signing or wanted too much money. We may never know what was discussed behind closed doors.

4. Sign one of the seven(!) good RTs available in free agency in 2013.



TBH Pasztor seems to have been the better option out of all of those.

---

"Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry, he's a mile away and barefoot."