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tbgh · 07-02-2014, 03:01 PM

After recovering from the Belgium game I thought I’d take the time to consider the question I’ve seen a lot of analysts pose. Is the USA better today than 4 years ago?



 

To answer that we really have to analyze the World Cup performance as well as look at the player pool as a whole.



 

2014 WORLD CUP



 

First off, there’s a misconception that the USA was ‘dominated’ in three of their four games. Certainly the possession and shot statistics bear that out. However, that doesn’t take into account the “game states.” For those unfamiliar with analytics, this briefly means that different scorelines typically result in different strategies and therefore different statistics. Just like a football team putting up passing yards against a prevent defense isn’t necessarily indicative of a great passing offense, stats in soccer can be misleading as well.



 

Basically, when the USA was ahead, they didn’t advance up the field, let the opponent have possession through the middle of the field and concentrated on defending in their own half. See the majority of the Ghana game and the end of the Portugal game.



 

When the USA was trailing, they pushed a second attacker up to support Dempsey and were able to maintain possession and generate chances almost at will. See the end of the Ghana game, the majority of the Portugal game, and the end of the Belgium game. The lone exception was the end of the Germany game, but Germany really is that good.



 

The problem is that when the game was even, the USA played like they had a lead instead of playing like they needed a goal. This points to a conservative mindset and not to a lack of talent. Essentially the USA believed that against these teams if they really attacked they would be bitten on the counterattack.

Their play when trailing and pushing up shows us different. They only allowed one goal in the tournament when already trailing – Belgium’s second goal. Whether this mindset was from the coaches or the players, is debatable. Klinnsman has said the player’s need to be more confident and assertive against top competition, but then trots out the 1 forward lineups that result in such a defensive posture. Without the extra options to pass to, the USA had to pass into a lot of tight windows resulting in turnovers.



 

A few things weigh against this team however. First, European teams never do as well in cups away from Europe excepting South Africa which had a European type climate and was in the same time zone. This was a golden chance for the USA and we didn’t take full advantage. Second, the US fan presence was immense and we had a home field atmosphere in every stadium.



 

On the whole, this performance is more impressive than 2010 for four reasons.



 

2014 Belgium >> 2010 Ghana



2014 Germany >>>>>> 2010 England



2014 Portugal >>>>>> 2010 Slovenia



2014 Ghana >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2010 Algeria



 

Remember the headline in the English papers when the 2010 groups were announced was: EASY



England



Algeria



Slovenia



Yanks



 

CURRENT PLAYER POOL



 

In 2006 and 2010, there were no players left at home that anyone in their right mind would want on the field against top flight competition. In 2014, there is a good enough contingent of players left off the roster to qualify for the world cup. This lineup is off the top of my head with no research:



 

Landon Donovan-----Terrance Boyd



????---Maurice Edu---Benny Feilhaber---Will Trapp



Jonathan Bornstein---Clarence Goodson---Parkhurst---Brad Evans



----------------????-----------------



 

In fact a large portion of that lineup WAS key in qualifying. Three are even veterans of the 2010 squad that are in their supposed prime, but were beaten out for this squad (Edu, Feilhaber, and Bornstein). Depth is much improved, and though we don’t have Premiership players coming off our bench (Seriously Belgium?!), the depth is better than all but about 6-8 nations in the world.



 

NEXT STEPS



 

One thing that I think hampered this squad was a lack of games against top teams. In qualifying Mexico was having their worst run in recent memory. When we played European powers they trotted out at most half of their usual starting line-ups. This cycle, however, we’ll be playing a super tournament with South America so we’ll have a shot to see where we stack up against the first choice teams of Brazil, Argentina, and Columbia. That tournament will be in the USA in June of 2016. And if we win the Gold Cup (North and Central American championship) in 2015, we’ll also participate in the Confederations Cup which will take place in 2017.



 

Those opportunities also mean a chance we could be seeded. If we are one of the top 7 teams in the world, we will have a seeded position at the next world cup and not have someone like Germany in our group. This is key for the next step because the majority of teams that won in the knockout rounds this past week could rest a lot of their starters at some point during the group stage. Not to mention, the majority of the weakest teams in the World Cup come from Asia and the last two World Cups we’ve been in the same pot as the Asian federation meaning there’s no chance we get these easier teams in our group.



 

Getting highly ranked is kind of like getting a high RPI in college basketball. It depends on wins, but moreso depends on strength of schedule. Europe and South America have an inherent advantage just like teams from a strong conference all pump up each others’ RPI. So anyone who cares about the next World Cup should be watching these tournaments with great interest.



 

We have three summers with three potential big tournaments to get through. This ‘regular season’ is key to avoiding another group of death in the ‘playoffs’ (World Cup), particularly in Russia which is much more European friendly than Brazil.

Adam2012 · 07-02-2014, 03:12 PM

Aren't we supposed to wait four years before again thinking about all this?

The sun's not yellow, it's chicken.

Deacon · 07-02-2014, 03:53 PM

Thanks for writing all of that up. Good read!

I'm trying to make myself more informed and less opinionated.

Stop saying whatever stupid thing you're talking about and pay attention to all the interesting things I have to say!

TravC59 · 07-02-2014, 05:37 PM

Quote:Aren't we supposed to wait four years before again thinking about all this?

Less than 1,500 days to go. Never to early.

I am excited about 2018, and I agree with OP. 2014 better than 2010.

TravC59, aka JacksJags. @TravC59 on Twitter
;
; "This is really good, you want a bite, Honey?"

badger · 07-03-2014, 09:23 AM

I like where the team is at, but in all honesty we have been here before. Every World Cup we are in a situation of "wait until next time when our young players mature."

The problem is that our young players in the past never became the players we had hoped (Eddie Johnson, Charlie Davies, Freddy Adu, ect.)

Adu showed tons of promise and then poof... I never heard from him again. He would just sit the bench for USMNT or not be on the team at all.