Hey guys!  Keeper league, and I've got Peyton and McCoy as my first two keepers.  I need a third, and it's between Martin, Julio Jones, and Harvin.  My first thought is to lock up my RBs and draft WRs heavy when most might be scrambling for RB scraps, but I'm not sure about whether Martin is worth the keeper (I traded for him the week before he got hurt).  Thoughts?

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I kept him. Julio too.

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Keep Julio.

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'02

What's your rationale, 02?

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I'd keep Martin. Most 2nd year backs struggle and I expect him to have a big bounce back year.

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Martin did jack squat before he was injured, and now the Bucs got a couple other RBs to look at. Julio, on the other hand, is probably the best WR in the entire league after Calvin Johnson.

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'02

Don't keep a QB. I absolutely can't stress that enough. You can get a very good QB later in the draft and you can use the waiver-wire all year for matchups.

 

Keep Martin, McCoy, and Julio.

 

There are very few workhouse runningbacks in the NFL. McCoy and Martin are two of them. People seem to forget that Martin had 1,900 yards from scrimmage and 12 TDs in his rookie season. He is a must-keep. Julio Jones is also a must-keep, because he will be a top 5 WR for the next 5 years. McCoy goes without saying.

 

Your team will be much better with:

QB: Tony Romo / Matt Ryan / Phillip Rivers (thinking of some QBs that might not be kept)

RB: McCoy

RB: Martin

WR: Jones

 

 

is much better than

QB: Manning

RB: McCoy

RB: Martin

WR: Mike Wallace

 

or

 

QB: Manning

RB: McCoy

RB: Stevan Ridley

WR: Jones

 

 

I love when players in my keeper leagues keep QBs because:

1. That means they won't be drafting one early and I can wait to grab one.

2. They are more than likely throwing legit #1 WRs and #1 RBs back into the draft.

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Just for an example..... people thought I was crazy last year for keeping: Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Demayrius Thomas and not keeping RGIII (mind you, this was coming off RGIII's stellar rookie season).

 

My draft....... I took Reggie Bush with my first pick and then still got RGIII with my 2nd pick. A lot of people keep QBs and therefor RBs/WRs go FAST in keeper drafts. After the 5th round, my team was by far the best team (on paper).

 

QB: RGIII

RB: Jamaal Charles

RB: Matt Forte

Flex: Reggie Bush

WR: Demaryius Thomas

 

 

 

If you play in a 12 team league, teams usually start 2 RBs and maybe a flex. Think about that..... that is 24 RBs. There are not 24 workhorse/stud RBs. On the contrary, there are only 12 starting QBs. There are a few QBs that are absolute stud plays every week (Manning, Brees, Rodgers), true, but there are always a handful of good plays. Way more than 12.

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Triple post:

 

Does your league allow trades? I'd talk to the Calvin Johnson or Jamaal Charles owner and see if they would trade: Peyton Manning + Doug Matin for Calvin Johnson. You could go into next season with:

 

RB: LeSean McCoy

WR: Julio Jones

WR: Calvin Johnson

 

That would be borderline unfair to the rest of your league.

 

For reference here is a site with good Dynasty / Keeper league rankings.

http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/rankings/dynasty-300/

 

You'll notice that QBs are ranked low, because QBs are very overrated in fantasy football.

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Keep Peyton, McCoy and Jones. Doug is overrated.

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'02

Keep Peyton, McCoy and Jones. Doug is overrated.

 

Keeping QBs is dumb.

 

Keeping QBs that are likely in their last year or two of playing is even dumber.

 

Keeping QBs that are likely in their last year or two of playing over a young RB who had 1,900 yards and 12 TDs in his rookie season is even dumber.

 

 

Decision like that is how you end up with a scrub team playing for 5th place like:

"QB Peyton Manning @ Texans


RB1 Frank Gore vs Falcons


RB2 Rashad Jennings @ Chargers


WR1 Keean Allen vs Raiders


WR2 Eric Decker @ Texans


WR3 Kendall Wright @ Jaguars


RB/WR Jordan Todman vs Titans


 

K: Adam Vinatieri @ Chiefs


DEF: Carolina Panthers vs Saints


 

BENCH:


 

RB Bobby Rainey @ Rams


RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis vs Vikings


WR Cordorelle Patterson @ Bengals


WR Michael Crabtree vs Falcons


WR Nate Burleson vs Giants


WR Doug Baldwin vs Cards"


 

 

Keeping elite RBs and WRs is how you end up with a solid team playing for the championship like:

QB: Ryan Tannehill

RB Jamaal Charles

RB: Reggie Bush

FLEX: C.J. Spiller

WR: Demaryius Thomas

WR: Josh Gordon

TE: Delanie Walker

K: Matt Prater

DEF: Cleveland Browns

 

Bench:

QB: Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan

RB: Shane Vereen, Ben Tate

WR: Marques Colston

TE: Coby Fleener

 

 

There is no keeper league or dynasty league that would rank Peyton Manning over Doug Martin.

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http://draftcalc.com/fantasy-football-rankings/dynasty/

 

^^^they list Peyton Manning as a keeper over Doug Martin.

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'02

Ok, I was wrong about "no". Take a look at other dynasty sites and you won't see that very often.

 

It comes down to this: The difference between Doug Martin and the 25th best running back is much, much, much greater than the difference between Manning and the 13th best quarter back. This is why you keep your stud, workhorse, #1 RBs.

 

Like I said, doing things like keeping aging QBs over young RBs is how you end up playing for 5th place.

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Ok, I was wrong about "no". Take a look at other dynasty sites and you won't see that very often.

 

It comes down to this: The difference between Doug Martin and the 25th best running back is much, much, much greater than the difference between Manning and the 13th best quarter back. This is why you keep your stud, workhorse, #1 RBs.

 

Like I said, doing things like keeping aging QBs over young RBs is how you end up playing for 5th place.

 

 

FANTASY POINTS


 

Peyton Manning - 15 games, 351.34, 23.42 points per game


Ryan Tannehill - 15, games 226.98 (13th best), 15.13 points per game


difference - 124.36


difference per game - 8.29 points


 

Doug Martin - 6 games, 56.2 points, 9.37 points per game


Fred Jackson - 15 games, 153.2 points  (13th best)
, <strong>10.21 points per game
</strong>

Andre Ellington - 14 games, 114.9 points (25th best)
, 8.21 points per game


difference per game between Martin and Ellington - 1.16 points


 

Just for reference...


Adrian Peterson - 14 games, 119 points, 14.21 points per game


difference per game between AP and Ellington - 6 points


 

I'd say the difference between Peyton and the 13th best QB is much, much, much greater. 

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'02

Jags02, I am going to ask you a simple question. On the link you provided for Dynasty Rankings, the #1 QB (Aaron Rodgers) is behind 6 RBs and 7 WRs. Why do you think that is?

 

 

Again, you used your strategy and are playing for 5th place. I've used mine successfully for years and I'm playing in the league championship. Enjoy that 5th place trophy.

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Also, using this year as the benchmark for future decisions is very mis-leading. Martin missed 10 games due to injury and Manning is having the best season of his career. Let's look at 2012....

 

6. Peyton Manning... 19.14 points per game

13. Carson Palmer... 16.43 points per game

Difference... 2.71 ppg

 

3. Doug Martin... 15.50 points per game

25. Shonn Greene... 9.29 points per game.

Difference... 6.21 ppg

 

 

There were 25 QBs who were within that 6.21ppg range from Manning last year.

 

 

The purpose of keeper and dynasty leagues is to predict future value. You don't base future value off of outliers like Manning's career-best season and Doug Martin's injury.

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I actually managed to move Manning for Marshawn Lynch, which I feel like is a good deal.  I think there will certainly be some good QBs out there on the waiver wire for the taking.

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Absolutely! Great trade for you.

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The best part is that the guy who took the trade is a rabid Broncos fan who already had Aaron Rodgers, so in all likelihood Rodgers is going to be back in the player pool.  In fact, there are a lot of QBs headed back into it, so that I can build my WR depth in the first couple rounds (I'll be 6th in the order this year).

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Yup, exactly. My advice is not to panic. Even if all 11 teams have a QB before you, so what? They aren't going to draft a backup QB early (if they are, sign me up for that league) and the "mid tier" (12-20) QBs are just as capable as other QBs. You could easily get something like Matt Ryan and Robert Griffin III, play the better matchup each week, and get elite production from your QB spot. Meanwhile, people are going to be going up against your backfield of Marshawn Lynch and LeSean McCoy with a much worse duo at RB.

 

If your team is a 12 team league, and every team has 2 QBs (pretty standard), that leaves Eight starting QBs on the Waiver Wire. There will be plenty of opprotunities to play matchups at that spot. RB, not so much. If teams had 4 RBs (pretty standard), that is 48 rostered RBs. 16 backups are already on rosters.

 

Shore up your RB position with elite backs and fill in the pieces!

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