I think the difference is SoS. Using the full 16 game SoS, it is weaker therefore giving us a better pick.

 

Absolutely correct.  GBNReport acknowledges the difference in the use of SoS. 

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Given the QB play in Jacksonville for the past decade, I don't fault some of the fans here for not being able to recognize a QB who moves well in the pocket, throws an accurate ball, and actually moves his head side-to-side to read the defense.

 

I also want a quarterback who can throw on the run, make any kind of throw, and make the right adjustments at the LOS.

---

Much of the myriad "tanking" discussions centered around the Jaguars' desperate need for a franchise QB, the desire for Houston to not have a franchise QB, and the likelihood that Bridgewater would go number one overall and therefore be unavailable to the Jaguars, who may even pick outside of the top five by the time this season is done.

 

But are there scenarios where the Louisville signal caller could still be ours for the taking, even with this current winning streak continuing?

 

Absolutely.

 

Of course, a lot would have to go right for the Jaguars to land him with their original first round pick outside of the top 3 picks, but I figured it might be a decent idea to kick around the what-ifs.

 

  Houston might decide another veteran QB would be better for the team.  It is difficult to imagine, looking at the Texans' roster, that this is a 2 win team.  According to quotes attributed to Texans' owner Bob McNair, he does not believe the Texans have a true two win roster, either.  More likely, he believes a KC type turnaround is possible, if not likely, with a coaching change and the right QB.  The right QB would be a veteran QB.  There has been some speculation that guys like Roethlisberger, Rivers, or Cutler could become available this offseason.  If the Texans brass believes this team, from a talent perspective, is closer to a contender than a true rebuilding project in waiting, it would make sense for the Texans to go after a veteran QB.  If Lovie Smith ends up the new Texans coach, I could see him making a play for Cutler, and looking to the draft to fill the remaining holes on the roster like RT, S, CB, and quite possibly a DE if they went with Lovie Smith and switched to a 4-3.  They might still go for a developmental QB later.  This scenario obviously increases the likelihood of Bridgewater's availability beyond the first overall pick.  If course, in this scenario, Houston could deal the #1 overall pick (if they end up with it) and some QB hungry team could still snap him up.

 

  They may be more inclined to utilize this approach if somehow Bridgewater drops in the eyes of scouts.  Assuming he stays healthy between now and draft time, I can see this happening one way:  if the combine shows him to be less than prototype size.  His weight and build has been the subject of some message board speculation.  You better believe risk averse GMs will use his size (or lack thereof) as justification for passing on him.  If Bridgewater comes out of the combine weighing closer to 196 than the 218 some have reported, and actually measures 6-1 instead of 6-3, I could see Bridgewater dropping some.  As is often the case, stock rises and falls in the months leading up to the draft.  As Bridgewater drops, maybe Carr's stock rises.  The pre draft process has been extended by another month, which may give teams more time to nitpick.  Maybe McNair, who became familiar with the Carr family through Derek Carr's older brother David, would be willing to take another chance on a Carr, especially with the OL the team currently has.

 

  If these things happen, then it potentially opens things up for Jacksonville.

 

  Based upon other mock draft orders at this stage, Atlanta has a good chance of winding up with the number two overall pick.  They certainly do not need a QB.  However, they have need for a T and a DE.  The value for those players is anywhere from 2-10 or so.  If they decide they need more numbers, they may be open to a trade down, and this is where Caldwell's ties to Atlanta may work to the Jaguars' advantage, if they coveted him and wanted to guarantee his availability to them via trade.  They might need to jump Minnesota to obtain his services.  This would be the most likely trade up partner under this scenario.

 

   Minnesota and Cleveland are two other potential teams likely picking in the top ten looking for a QB.  Minnesota has the advantage of draft position over Cleveland, who has the advantage of two first round picks with which to move.  Arguably, Minnesota has more needs than Cleveland, as they look to jettison Jared Allen after this season, need to replace an aging Kevin Williams, and get someone to push the rookie DT from Florida. But both teams could also be less than enamored with rookies at QB, considering the Vikings just made the playoffs two seasons ago, and Cleveland has a very good young nucleus, may make a play for one of the veteran QBs.

 

Buffalo just picked E.J. Manuel this year, and he showed some signs of being a good signal caller before getting hurt.  He has good coaching and good tools around him.  They may look to improve OT. 

 

It doesn't seem likely now, but a lot can happen that could lead Bridgewater available to us despite our recent success.

 

While it is possible that the Texans don't go QB, I think the more likely choice is that they do go QB. Their core has gotten old. None of their QBs are the answer, so they need a QB regardless. They will have a new HC in place. I'm not sure what their salary situation is, but they let Mario go because of salary concerns. I'm not sure they can afford a big money contract to guys like Cutler, Rivers, or Ben. Enter Bridgewater...regardless of how you view him, the belief is that of the QBs this year, he's the guy who is most ready to play. He would be the perfect bridge, no pun intended, to start for a team that might be good enough to contend with a good QB while not sacrificing the future of the team with a high-priced veteran QB.

 

The Falcons have been looking for a DE since they decided to pass on Watt and Smith for Julio. With Clowney staring them in the face, and with a veteran cast, I don't think they trade quantity for quality. They take Clowney and don't look back.

 

That would leave teams like Minny, Browns, and Tampa Bay as potential teams ahead of us. Maybe Tennessee if we win out. With games against Buf, Tenn, and Colts...there is a fairly realistic chance we go 7-9 this season. While Bridgewater can slide if he measures small, I don't think he slides that far given the teams who need a QB at the top. If we win 7-9 games, you can forget about getting the top QBs in this draft barring a trade up scenario.

---

Why do some of your struggle so bad with reading comprehension? Her point wasn't comparing Teddy Bridgewater to Geno Smith.


Her point is that:

If a QB that almost everybody had going either #1 or #2 all the way up to draft day falls all the way to #39, then it isn't that crazy to think a guy who isn't a consensus #1 might fall to #6.


If the projected top pick in the 2013 draft falls all the way to #39 behind guys like Sylvester Williams and Travis Frederick, then it isn't crazy to think that Bridgewater falls to #6 behind guys like Barr/Carr/Clowney/Matthews/Mariota.


Do I think Bridgewater falls to 6? No, but I didn't think Geno was falling to 39 either.

Because that's not what happened.


Geno's draft stock was all over the place from high first to bottom of first/second, especially leading up to the draft after the Alex Smith trade.

---

"Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry, he's a mile away and barefoot."

I can't see the Falcons picking anyone not named Clowney. I also can't see the Texans (who will pick first barring huge upsets) or the Vikings not picking a quarterback. After the regular season ends I will post the top 20 draft order and everybody can start talking about possible leapfrog trades.

---

Because that's not what happened.


Geno's draft stock was all over the place from high first to bottom of first/second, especially leading up to the draft after the Alex Smith trade.

 

Even after the Alex Smith trade, everyone expected Geno to be a first round pick. Name one person who thought he would fall all the way to #39.

---

Even after the Alex Smith trade, everyone expected Geno to be a first round pick. Name one person who thought he would fall all the way to #39.

There was plenty of speculation that he would be in for a free fall. Especially leading up to the draft. There was even a report that he could fall just days before the draft.

Geno Smith was defiant on Tuesday as rumors floated that his stock in the first round Thursday was slipping. "Just want to thank all those so called 'experts' who say I can’t be an NFL QB," he said on Twitter.

<a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2013/04/draft_critics_prompt_west_virg.html'>http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2013/04/draft_critics_prompt_west_virg.html</a>


Here's another:

<a class="bbc_url" href='http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/21/tough-to-find-a-first-round-match-for-geno-smith/'>http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/21/tough-to-find-a-first-round-match-for-geno-smith/</a>

---

"Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry, he's a mile away and barefoot."

There was plenty of speculation that he would be in for a free fall. Especially leading up to the draft. There was even a report that he could fall just days before the draft.

 

Fall how far? Certainly not to Round 2 Pick 7.

---

Fall how far? Certainly not to Round 2 Pick 7.

Again. My point is Geno's draft stock was all over the place. At this point in time Teddy's draft stock is fixed in the top 5.

---

"Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry, he's a mile away and barefoot."

Again. My point is Geno's draft stock was all over the place. At this point in time Teddy's draft stock is fixed in the top 5.

 

And at this point it is not "just days before the draft."

---

And at this point it is not "just days before the draft."

Even at this point in the draft process Teddy's draft position is more concrete than Geno's was.


Go back and look at mock drafts for December last year and compare Geno's position to Teddy's position this year. Geno's draft position ranges from the top of the round to the bottom half of the first. Teddy's position has been consistently in the top 5 of the draft.

---

"Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry, he's a mile away and barefoot."

Even at this point in the draft process Teddy's draft position is more concrete than Geno's was.


Go back and look at mock drafts for December last year and compare Geno's position to Teddy's position this year. Geno's draft position ranges from the top of the round to the bottom half of the first. Teddy's position has been consistently in the top 5 of the draft.

 

You have to look at why that happened, not just what happened. Did the projections for Geno Smith change because of what he did on the field or something outside of his control?

---

While it is possible that the Texans don't go QB, I think the more likely choice is that they do go QB. Their core has gotten old. None of their QBs are the answer, so they need a QB regardless. They will have a new HC in place. I'm not sure what their salary situation is, but they let Mario go because of salary concerns. I'm not sure they can afford a big money contract to guys like Cutler, Rivers, or Ben. Enter Bridgewater...regardless of how you view him, the belief is that of the QBs this year, he's the guy who is most ready to play. He would be the perfect bridge, no pun intended, to start for a team that might be good enough to contend with a good QB while not sacrificing the future of the team with a high-priced veteran QB.

 

The Falcons have been looking for a DE since they decided to pass on Watt and Smith for Julio. With Clowney staring them in the face, and with a veteran cast, I don't think they trade quantity for quality. They take Clowney and don't look back.

 

That would leave teams like Minny, Browns, and Tampa Bay as potential teams ahead of us. Maybe Tennessee if we win out. With games against Buf, Tenn, and Colts...there is a fairly realistic chance we go 7-9 this season. While Bridgewater can slide if he measures small, I don't think he slides that far given the teams who need a QB at the top. If we win 7-9 games, you can forget about getting the top QBs in this draft barring a trade up scenario.

 

It may well play out that way in Houston.  New coaches typically want their guys at QB, and it would not be a shock to see Houston go QB at #1 overall.  Besides, rookie QBs are coming in and succeeding with greater frequency than in years' past.  But if McNair still thinks the team has the talent to succeed big and soon (and you can make the argument they do), if the right veteran QB becomes available, it would make a ton of short term sense to go that route.  Good observation about their cap situation, which, according to what little  I have read about it, is pretty bad.

 

It makes sense on many levels for the Falcons to take Clowney.  From a physical perspective, he certainly has the talent you want.  He fits the need and scheme for them.  But they may be able to trade back and still get him or another DE.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

It makes sense on many levels for the Falcons to take Clowney. From a physical perspective, he certainly has the talent you want. He fits the need and scheme for them. But they may be able to trade back and still get him or another DE.

 

The only reason the Falcons would have to trade down is a ridiculous offer they can't resist. They are 3-10 now with only one winnable game left (the next one), so I can't imagine someone else picking Jadaveon Clowney before they are on the clock. But a lot of weird things have happened, especially in the first round.

---

 

What do people see in Manziel? I'm sure he'll go at the back of the 1st round (like Tebow), but athleticism aside, he doesn't have what it takes. Caldwell doesn't really strike me as someone that would risk a 1st round pick on someone like Manziel.

 

I think they see his productivity in the SEC.  But I want nothing to do with him here. 

 

I don't believe he can function effectively/consistently from the pocket, I don't believe his arm strength or accuracy is what it needs to be, and I don't believe he has the mental makeup to succeed in the NFL.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

That would obviously be a more realistic expectation than, say, you having anything remotely resembling a substantive football take.

 

I mean...just one post where you offer your own opinion of a player's strengths and weaknesses and why he would/would not make sense for the team to draft him.

 

Just one post where you offer more than peanut gallery chides on other posters' analysis and/or the patented "I'll just trust the front office" screed.

 

It's way past time.

I have a lot of wonderful and in depth discussions with Jag fans all the time. YOU just don't happen to be one of them.

 

You are on record as wishing loss on the jags, and therefore you are no fan. That's nobody's fault but your own.

 

Forgive me if I really don't care about the rationale of anything you say because you're simply no fan. You're really nobody in that regard.

---

What lies behind us, and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.







 

Dakota,

 

Spare me your self righteous nonsensical filibuster.

 

The Jaguars ticket office considers me a fan, considering I've had my tickets since the inaugural season.

 

I've been posting on this board since 2002.  Many board members have seen me at training camp practices, including FBT, ytraM and Su Heroe.  I spoke at a city council meeting during the stadium signage controversy.  That's quite the investment in Jaguars football for someone you allege to be a non fan.  The overwhelming preponderance of the evidence demonstrates my blood runs teal, black and gold.

 

My rationale for the losses was limited to this season-due to the need for a QB that would give the Jaguars LONG TERM SUCCESS, and even with that, I said winning would be fine if there was evidence of a good young nucleus developing. There is evidence of a good young nucleus, with Cyprien, Gratz, and even Branch.

 

But football fans actually...you know...talk football.  Since you never do-at least on this message board...well...I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

 

Because the thing is, your lack of substantive football discussion as evidenced on this board long predates my stance on the issue to which you refer.

 

There are plenty in that thread with whom I disagreed on that issue I would never allege avoids substantive football discussion on this board.  I disagreed with Predator on that issue (heck, for that matter, I seem to disagree with him about 90% of the time on football related issues that arise on this board).  But dang it, he talks substantively about football and backs his stuff up with facts and reasonable arguments.  Whatever my disagreements with him may be, I could never accuse him of avoiding substantive football discussion.  By all accounts, he is a football fan.

 

As reviled as TMD is on this board, as much as people allege he pushes an agenda, etc., nobody can honestly accuse him of avoiding detailed football discussion.  Again, by every reasonable interpretation, he is a football fan.

 

There is another poster I won't mention by name whose posts are so addled and devoid of logic, I can barely stand to read their  posts.  But even that person will stumble across a substantive football take every so often.

 

You? 

 

All you do is sit back and make snide comments about people who actually have the stones to make a stand on a football related issue without actually having your own take.

 

You are the peanut gallery of the peanut gallery. 

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Applause.

---

"Let us not become conceited, provoking and envying each other." Galatians 5:26

2015 NFL Draft - Analyzing Targets www.jungle.jaguars.com/index.php?/topic/7892-2015-nfl-draft-analyzing-targets/

That was a full grown bengal tiger mauling a 3 day old calf bad.

 

I've called out another poster before for the same stuff but i didnt even hit him that hard.

 

Dakota please delete your account you have been retired from the board by Bullseye.

---

It'd really be nice if you guys quit talking about us drafting Bridgewater. He sucks, get over it.

---

Your beliefs become your thoughts,
Your thoughts become your words,
Your words become your actions,
Your actions become your habits,
Your habits become your values,
Your values become your destiny.