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How Important Is A Top Draft Pick?

#41

Quote:Are you suggesting we should draft the BAP regardless of our pick number? Sorry, David Caldwell is a needs-based drafter.
 

I know he calls himself a needs drafter but based on the one draft we've seen from David I'd say he leans more towards BAP then Needs drafting.

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#42
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2013, 06:30 PM by atburg.)

Quote:You're reallly high on Bridgewater.  The first bolded passage proves that.

 

The second bolded sentence proves you're really high.
Glad im not alone in seeing that! Just when you think he cant get any worse, he ranks Bridgewater up with 2 hall of famers and calls everyone dumb who thinks otherwise! Then to top it off, he just ranked this coming draft higher than any draft since 1988?


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#43

Quote:You can also say this about any pick number. We had the #10 pick and could have selected Jason Pierre-Paul there, but picked a DT who is not nearly as good as JPP. I have criticized Gene Smith for that one since the first time I saw JPP play.



You just contradicted yourself. When a team botches a pick, it does not matter whether he was the first or the seventh pick. We know that because we picked Harvey and Monroe at #8. One was a bust, the other one of our best players.


That said, you are right that it is good to know you can get the highest-rated player . . . if he is not overrated.



Oh yes people will care about our draft position. Every year we worry about missing out on certain players who are expected to be top five picks. That is caring about our pick number.




Nonsense. The only way to improve the quarterback position is get a better quarterback. The only way to improve the outside linebacker position is get a better OLB. Are you that stupid to think improving one position will upgrade all 25 positions?


Whoever said mediocre is worse than really bad does not know what those words mean. It is always better to win 8 games than to win 2 games, period.



The only team that needed a quarterback was San Francisco and they botched the pick.
You're special.
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#44

Quote:I've said it 100 times, it's about selection not position. Getting the 1st overall pick is great but if you miss on the pick then you're no better off.
yep you just have a high priced bust.

 

Personally, it seems like it goes to some guys heads....also, teams seem to be media influenced on who is the best pic.

all in all its complimicated... :turned:

 

maybe a draft lottery would be better?  Sort of like a team would get to pick in a certain number of positions with a number of qualified players in each postion.

"Stay tight, stay close. Great things are going to continue to happen for this football team."  - Doug Peterson
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#45

Quote:I've said it 100 times, it's about selection not position. Getting the 1st overall pick is great but if you miss on the pick then you're no better off.


True but with the top pick, you get your guy. It's all on you to choose the right guy out of every prospect. No one can steal your guy with the top pick. I want the top pick so that Caldwell, someone who seems like he is good at evaluating talent, will get to choose and not have the decision made for him already.
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#46

Quote:Kaepernick, Freeney, Forte, Brees, Ngata, Kuechley, Grbac, Biakabatuka,Butkus, Gay.... Probably more out there with weird names
You forgot Harry Colon. Smile

What lies behind us, and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.







 




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#47

Johnny football with the 1st pic or bust


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#48

Quote:Johnny football with the 1st pic or bust


True
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#49

Quote:Finishing the season 5-3 would change the outlook of this team considerably.

 

Draft order doesn't necessarily translate over to ability at the next level. For all we know, the HOFer of the class could be sitting at #7. 
 

I disagree.  Winning a few more games before the end of the season will not change any outlook because the majority of players who are suiting up on Sundays are fodder.  We don't even have many young guys playing right now whose "progression" matters.  Our top pick is out with injury.  This team is not built to win this year.  Caldwell knows that and so does Bradley.  Neither are going to put much stock into what happens this year and neither will I.

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#50

Quote:I disagree.  Winning a few more games before the end of the season will not change any outlook because the majority of players who are suiting up on Sundays are fodder.  We don't even have many young guys playing right now whose "progression" matters.  Our top pick is out with injury.  This team is not built to win this year.  Caldwell knows that and so does Bradley.  Neither are going to put much stock into what happens this year and neither will I.
The reason why you win those games is because some of the people you have written off turn out to be more than just fodder.

 

The whole evaluation of your roster changes within the perspective of winning.

 

You don't suddenly say, "Well that worked. Let's get rid of it."

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#51

Quote:Its amazing how that win against the Titans seemed to open up the floodgates for the mouthbreathers that now have lost all perspective on whats "really" important, and whats not. 
You sound like FBT with that "mouthbreathers" comment.  Something stupid and idiotic he would say for sure.

 

As I have said many of times, the draft is little more than a crapshoot.  Look at the list the op posted.  How many of that short sample were "can't miss studs" and turned out to be duds.

 

I'm tired of hearing bridgewater this and bridgewater that.  We don't know how he will do in the NFL.  College is like the minor leagues. 

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#52

Quote:Aaron Rogers - not talented enough to be a top 10 pick in the draft.
Aaron Curry- The best player in that draft. Said by most of the draft guru's

 

It's a lottery.  While yes having a better lottery ticket gives you a better pick it guarantees nothing. 

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#53

There's no doubt that having a top draft pick, like first overall, increases your chances of getting a good player.   Absolutely no doubt about that. 

 

My argument is with the idea that it's a good thing to lose so we can get a higher draft pick.  

 

First of all, wins are never meaningless.  You are what your record indicates you are.  If you are 4-12, you have a better team than if you are 1-15. 

 

And that would mean we are that much closer to eventual success.    If we go 1-15 and get the top draft pick, so what?   1-15 means this team STINKS and we are a LONG LONG way from success.   4-12 would mean we are closer to having a playoff team. 

 

There are a lot of teams that are in the playoffs every year, therefore they do not have a top 10 draft pick, hardly ever.  Now you can say it's because they mostly have great quarterbacks, but most of the great quarterbacks in the league today were not selected with the first pick in the draft.  Russell Wilson- 3rd round, Tom Brady- 6th round, Andy Dalton- 2nd round?     Drew Brees, Colin Kaepernick, and on and on- a lot of top QBs were not selected with a high draft pick. 

 

You don't get better by getting worse.   Becoming the worst team in the league so we can roll the dice on the first pick in the draft, that's not very wise and it's not the way most successful teams become successful. 

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#54

Quote:You sound like FBT with that "mouthbreathers" comment.  Something stupid and idiotic he would say for sure.

 

As I have said many of times, the draft is little more than a crapshoot.  Look at the list the op posted.  How many of that short sample were "can't miss studs" and turned out to be duds.

 

I'm tired of hearing bridgewater this and bridgewater that.  We don't know how he will do in the NFL.  College is like the minor leagues. 
 

Bridgewater may be the next great QB.  But the thought that any of the MB knows for sure is just unfathomable.  From what I've read, most posters see him as a top prospect, and I think that's reasonable.  But in a draft where there are multiple QBs, it's too early to tell who is truelly among the "elite" prospects, if there are any.

 

One thing I've noticed from this year in college FB and the year Andrew Luck came out was that there was tons of coverage of Luck.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not an ESPN fanboy, but I haven't heard the same type of hype for Bridgewater that I saw and heard when Luck was in college and about to come out for the draft.

 

If Bridgwater is such a great prospect, how come I don't hear more hype from the ESPN machine.  Lousiville games are not even on TV here in the mountain time zone.  His last game was on a friday night if I recall correctly.  And yeah, I guess he looked OK.  There was nothing there that I was "WOW'd" about...

 

Once the season is over, and the ESPN folks start really evaluating the college prospects, I think we'll all know more.  Because you know, we all have lives and haven't really spent all our waking hours looking over every college QB's game tape and what not.

 

How anyone can come on a MB and tout a college QB as can't miss is beyond me.  Again, I'll revert back to what I used to read on a previous Jaguars MB regarding Jake Locker.  People on that MB were drooling about him, think he'd be the greatest QB prospect in many years.  Clearly Locker is nothing more than a mediocre QB.  But he was regarded as "Can't Miss". 

 

It's the same song and dance every year.  Franchise QBs don't happen yearly.  Even the new "Hot Prospect" from FSU may be exposed next year, once teams begin gameplan for him.  Plus, the fact that he has elite talent may be hiding his deficiencies.  So many variables that cannot be accounted for make anyones evaluation suspect.

 

The one thing I will say is this:  A QB that finds success in a Spread Offense shouldn't be considered a top prospect.  I'm looking at you Blaine....   But good job getting paid millions....   Junk stock that got a run of stoopid investors, cashed out, and then crashed... 

 

That's the one thing that concerns me about Mariotta...  He's from Oregon, runs a spread offense, and is heavy on his running ability.  How the heck will that translate?  Not to good if you ask me.

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#55

Quote:There's no doubt that having a top draft pick, like first overall, increases your chances of getting a good player.   Absolutely no doubt about that. 

 

My argument is with the idea that it's a good thing to lose so we can get a higher draft pick.  

 

First of all, wins are never meaningless.  You are what your record indicates you are.  If you are 4-12, you have a better team than if you are 1-15. 

 

And that would mean we are that much closer to eventual success.    If we go 1-15 and get the top draft pick, so what?   1-15 means this team STINKS and we are a LONG LONG way from success.   4-12 would mean we are closer to having a playoff team. 

 

There are a lot of teams that are in the playoffs every year, therefore they do not have a top 10 draft pick, hardly ever.  Now you can say it's because they mostly have great quarterbacks, but most of the great quarterbacks in the league today were not selected with the first pick in the draft.  Russell Wilson- 3rd round, Tom Brady- 6th round, Andy Dalton- 2nd round?     Drew Brees, Colin Kaepernick, and on and on- a lot of top QBs were not selected with a high draft pick. 

 

You don't get better by getting worse.   Becoming the worst team in the league so we can roll the dice on the first pick in the draft, that's not very wise and it's not the way most successful teams become successful.


Look at KC last year......2-14. I don't think them finishing badly last year affected them for this year. Each new season is a new beginning. KC heals up some and plugs a few holes thru their draft (top picks in each round) and free agency. Their weaknesses have disappeared and teams are having a hard time beating them. Last year they were easy to exploit. One year later......9-0. Unfortunately, we have a lot more holes than they do. It will take longer. We have made terrible decisions in the last several drafts.
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#56

Quote:The reason why you win those games is because some of the people you have written off turn out to be more than just fodder.

 

The whole evaluation of your roster changes within the perspective of winning.

 

You don't suddenly say, "Well that worked. Let's get rid of it."
 

You think that getting four or five wins means that "it worked"?  No, I sure hope our GM wouldn't consider that working.

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#57
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2013, 11:55 PM by JagsQuest.)

High draft picks are just like poker. Pocket Aces can get beat and do get beat quite often.

 

With that being said if you are playing Texas Hold'em would you rather your hold cards be pocket Aces or 6/7 off-suit?

 

The higher the draft pick the higher percentage of success you may potentially gain though not a guarantee. Pocket Aces can be a winner or get trounced by pocket 3's when a 3 hits on the river. It's all a gamble when it comes down to reality.


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#58

i don't believe this board.........losing is stupid..........the draft is a gamble. winning is better than losing


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#59

^^ The gamble is a WHOLE lot lower in the top 3 than it is the rest of the draft. Which is why people dont care about a few wins in a dead season. We want to be able to take 1 of the two best QBs and if we pick outside the top 3 we may miss out. Even if you dont agree with QBs the risk on Clowney is a lot less than other players.

 

There are players in the top 3 who are franchise changing talents. Those guys werent there last year. So when they do arrive I would like to be in a position to get them on this team. 

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#60

Quote:i don't believe this board.........losing is stupid..........the draft is a gamble. winning is better than losing
Exactly.  Us "mouthbreathers" are so stupid for wanting our team to win.  Who would of thought

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