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How Important Is A Top Draft Pick?

#61

Quote:Look at KC last year......2-14. I don't think them finishing badly last year affected them for this year. Each new season is a new beginning. KC heals up some and plugs a few holes thru their draft (top picks in each round) and free agency. Their weaknesses have disappeared and teams are having a hard time beating them. Last year they were easy to exploit. One year later......9-0. Unfortunately, we have a lot more holes than they do. It will take longer. We have made terrible decisions in the last several drafts.
 

Kansas City did not tank last year just to get the top pick of the draft. They had the worst record because they stunk. A new GM and coaching staff instantly made them much better, not just a new QB.

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#62

Quote:I know he calls himself a needs drafter but based on the one draft we've seen from David I'd say he leans more towards BAP then Needs drafting.
 

So I guess you did not know we needed to completely overhaul our defensive backfield. All four positions needed upgrades. We also needed a slot receiver/kickoff returner. The Eugene Monroe trade made Luke Joeckel a need pick instead of just the BAP.

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#63
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2013, 01:01 AM by JagsQuest.)

Quote:Kansas City did not tank last year just to get the top pick of the draft. They had the worst record because they stunk. A new GM and coaching staff instantly made them much better, not just a new QB.
Don't forget about those 6 pro bowlers that  KC team that stunk had. That would probably be the biggest difference.

 

<p class="" style="font-family:'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, serif;color:rgb(41,41,41);font-size:16px;">The <a class="" href='http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/teams/kansas-city-chiefs'>Chiefs</a> set a new NFL record but it's not totally for being an inept team. Well, it kinda is.

<p class="" style="font-family:'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, serif;color:rgb(41,41,41);font-size:16px;">The Chiefs had five Pro Bowlers initially picked for the game -- <a class="" href='http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/players/108650/eric-berry'>Eric Berry</a>, Derrick Johnson, <a class="" href='http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/players/2371/tamba-hali'>Tamba Hali</a>, <a class="" href='http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/players/34464/jamaal-charles'>Jamaal Charles</a> and <a class="" href='http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/players/2360/dustin-colquitt'>Dustin Colquitt</a>.

<p class="" style="font-family:'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, serif;color:rgb(41,41,41);font-size:16px;">Before the Pro Bowl voting results, everyone said they didn't care about the Pro Bowl. And then when the results came out everyone freaked out saying the Chiefs five Pro Bowlers is why the Pro Bowl is a joke. (Which shows people don't care only until their guys get passed over. Then they care a lot.)

<p class="" style="font-family:'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, serif;color:rgb(41,41,41);font-size:16px;">So I wonder what those people thought when the Chiefs added another Pro Bowler this week in <a class="" href='http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/players/131077/justin-houston'>Justin Houston</a>. Six Pro Bowlers on two wins is rare. And by rare, I mean it's never happened before.


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#64

Quote:Don't forget about those 6 Pro Bowlers that  KC team that stunk had. That would probably be the biggest difference.
 

Actually the real story in KC is about the new GM and coaches, not the other 47 players. But that means 47 players needed better coaches to succeed on the field.

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#65
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2013, 01:11 AM by JagsQuest.)

Quote:Actually the real story in KC is about the new GM and coaches, not the other 47 players. But that means 47 players needed better coaches to succeed on the field.
Or maybe the 6 pro bowlers playing with an ultra efficient game managing QB as opposed to Brady Quinn or Matt Cassell?

 

I like Andy Reid but inheriting 6 pro bowlers is just amazing. That cannot be discounted.

 

Almost 1/3rd of his starters were pro bowlers. Recipe for success indeed.


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#66
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2013, 03:24 AM by Jungle Cat.)

Quote:Let's look at the top 5 or 6 bottom feeders in the last 5 years:


2008


DET (0-16)........Matt Stafford......QB

STL (2-14)........Jason Smith.......OT

KC (2-14)..........Tyson Jackson...DE

SEA (4-12)........Aaron Curry........OLB

CLE (4-12)........Trade Back


2009


STL (1-15).........Sam Bradford........QB

DET (2-14).........Suh.......................DT

TAM (3-13).........Gerald McCoy.......DT

WASH (4-12)......Trent Williams.......OT

KC (4-12)...........Eric Berry..............SS

SEA (5-11).........Russell Okung.......OT


2010


CAR (2-14)..........Cam Newton........QB

DEN (4-12)..........Von Miller.............OLB

BUF (4-12)..........Marcell Dareus....DE

CIN (4-12)...........AJ Green.............WR

ARI (5-11)............Patrick Peterson...CB

CLE (5-11)...........Trade Back


2011


IND (2-14)..............Andrew Luck.......QB

STL (2-14)....,,,,,,,,,,Trade Back

MIN (3-13)..............Trade Back One Spot

CLE (4-12)..............Trade Up One Spot

TAM (4-12)..............Trade Back


2012


KC (2-14)................Eric Fisher........OT

JAX (2-14)...............Luke Joeckel....OT

OAK (4-12)..............Trade Back

PHI (4-12)................Lane Johnson....OT

DET (4-12)...............Ziggy Ansah.......DE


So, in the last 5 years, there were 2 franchise quarterbacks taken. Cam is still a question. But other than that, I begin to question how important a high top draft pick really is and how much it helps a team. In the last 5 years, some teams have kinda dwelled there. DET, STL, KC, and CLE have been in the bottom 5......3 times. TAM & SEA twice. So where are those teams now halfway thru the season? DET is 6-3. STL is 4-6. KC is 9-0. CLE is 4-5. TAM is 1-8. SEA is 9-1. The results tell me that maybe it doesn't matter as much as I thought. The draft is a crapshoot. It's important to have good scouts and a GM. Of course, thanks to Gene and Shack, we kinda already know this. The question this year for us is.......Is Teddy really THE GUY? Will he be a Stafford or Luck? Is there another quarterback better that will fall? Does it really matter where we pick if Caldwell is a drafting genius. Clearly some teams have an edge in that dept.
The draft isn't a crapshoot. The draft is your chance to make your team better. To do that you must scout honestly and grade honestly and be willing to select the best player available regardless of position each and every pick.

 

Sort your own team out by position and throw the new minnows in each tank accordingly.

 

What else can you possibly do in the draft other than that? When you pick the best player available there is no higher intellect to deal with. Picks are precious. Use them wisely to accumulate assets.

 

Positions become deep to over-flowing and free agency becomes less contentious.


First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. - Mahatma Gandhi

 

http://s6.postimg.org/vyr2ycdfz/Teddy_Br...cked_4.gif
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#67

Quote:You think that getting four or five wins means that "it worked"?  No, I sure hope our GM wouldn't consider that working.
4 or 5 wins in the next 7 games would most definitely mean something is working.

 

In a developmental process you don't evaluate yourself based on what you were, you evaluate yourself based on what you have become. If we can finish the season hot then the fact that we went 0-8 to begin the season becomes less relevant towards our future prospects.

 

The '96 jags began the season poorly. The winning streak they had at the end of the season was the beginning of a string of playoff seasons and two title games.

 

I doubt these jags will pull off a winning streak to end the season, but if they did it would be far from meaningless. It would mean that something positive and very significant was happening to this team and I would gladly drop a few draft spots if that were to happen.

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#68

depends on the draft

last year with the limited top tier talent and high general standard 10th pick to 1st pick was pretty similar with limited talent difference. I mean shariff floyd dropped like a stone and to some was the 3rd pick.

 

This year i think there are a few top tier talents meaning (say mariota bridgewater and clowney all declare) the top 3 picks should get trade offers with some teams willing to give up the farm for them especially with all the qb needy teams us , browns, vikings, bucs, could say eagles (foles has been lucky and vick is on his way out),. This is big for a rebuilding team like us whilst the talent on offer is all at our two big postions of need. For the jags i think a top pick is vital as it gives us three great options

 

get our qb of the future

get a pass rusher that has a great chance to be elite

trade back stockpile picks to strengthen our line

 

for a team in total rebuild those 3 options are exciting and so i think a top pick is essential to our development .

 

Though I am delighted we won and with how we played on defense what I would say is the titans handed us that win on a silver platter, if our offense had functioned in a remotely effective manner we would and should have spanked them.

We didn't, we ran the ball ok but there was no concentrated push by our line and poor qb meant we scraped it, no hatred to our defense, they forced turnovers and got after the ball but that will not happen every week.

 

Last week showed me there is hope but i still think those big areas of need need high draft picks.

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#69

Quote:4 or 5 wins in the next 7 games would most definitely mean something is working.

 

In a developmental process you don't evaluate yourself based on what you were, you evaluate yourself based on what you have become. If we can finish the season hot then the fact that we went 0-8 to begin the season becomes less relevant towards our future prospects.

 

The '96 jags began the season poorly. The winning streak they had at the end of the season was the beginning of a string of playoff seasons and two title games.

 

I doubt these jags will pull off a winning streak to end the season, but if they did it would be far from meaningless. It would mean that something positive and very significant was happening to this team and I would gladly drop a few draft spots if that were to happen.


Big difference in our '96 run. We had very good drafts (with high draft positions I might add) in '95 & 96'. It took a while in '96 for that team to gel. Another good draft in '98 and we had the best record in the league in '99. Save for last year's draft, we have been the worst drafting team in the NFL. We have almost nobody left from the Gene Smith drafting period. It's why this team is largely devoid of talent. Why OVERACHIEVE in the final few games of the year? Let me repeat again....NOBODY IS TANKING......doesn't happen okay. Many of us just don't see losing as all that bad.....at this point. We want to see improvement with the young guys. The rest of the season will be good experience for our young guys in the years ahead. We are right in the middle of a rebuild. How are we rebuilding? THRU THE DRAFT. A high position in the draft increases our odds for a big hit. Once we're rebuilt, let's WIN WIN WIN.
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#70

Quote:i don't believe this board.........losing is stupid..........the draft is a gamble. winning is better than losing
 

YEP...getting those three or four wins is really important!  When do we plan the parade?

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#71

Quote:You think that getting four or five wins means that "it worked"?  No, I sure hope our GM wouldn't consider that working.
 

Getting four or five wins would mean we have a better team than if we went 1-15.   Winning doesn't cause us to have a better team.   Winning is a measuring stick.   A 5-11 team is usually better than a 1-15 team.   So winning is not meaningless.   It's a measure of how far you are from contending in the future.  

 

That's why I would rather have a 5-11 team and the resulting draft pick, than a 1-15 team and the resulting draft pick. 

 

I think a lot of people fall in love with particular college players and think that if  we could only draft that one guy, everything would be so much better.   So for them, the race to the bottom becomes vitally important.   I simply disagree with that position.   I don't think you should ever want to be the worst team in the league. 


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#72
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2013, 08:45 AM by Mowerguy.)

...and you have to have pICKS and lots of them.

Don't squander, waste or trade two for one.....you build depth like that.

 

Used to drive me crazy seeing other teams picking 4~6 times in first three rounds while we had 3.

And then we'd do stupid stuff with them.

 

ggaahhh. Wallbash


"Stay tight, stay close. Great things are going to continue to happen for this football team."  - Doug Peterson
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#73

Quote:So I guess you did not know we needed to completely overhaul our defensive backfield. All four positions needed upgrades. We also needed a slot receiver/kickoff returner. The Eugene Monroe trade made Luke Joeckel a need pick instead of just the BAP.
 

Needs drafting and BAP drafting become more blended the further in the draft you go, based upon his 1st and 2nd round selections I'd consider Caldwell more BAP then he wants to admit. When we drafted Joeckel we didn't have a need at LT, so that was a BAP selection not a need selection.

[Image: 5_RdfH.gif]
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#74
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2013, 09:23 AM by Predator.)

Quote:Big difference in our '96 run. We had very good drafts (with high draft positions I might add) in '95 & 96'. It took a while in '96 for that team to gel. Another good draft in '98 and we had the best record in the league in '99. Save for last year's draft, we have been the worst drafting team in the NFL. We have almost nobody left from the Gene Smith drafting period. It's why this team is largely devoid of talent. Why OVERACHIEVE in the final few games of the year? Let me repeat again....NOBODY IS TANKING......doesn't happen okay. Many of us just don't see losing as all that bad.....at this point. We want to see improvement with the young guys. The rest of the season will be good experience for our young guys in the years ahead. We are right in the middle of a rebuild. How are we rebuilding? THRU THE DRAFT. A high position in the draft increases our odds for a big hit. Once we're rebuilt, let's WIN WIN WIN.
Winning isn't a switch you turn off and on. Winning is a hard earned acquired skill.

 

I would much rather them start winning now than pinning their hopes on a single draft pick that may or may not lead them to win in the future.

 

"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" There is a reason why that is considered a wise saying.

 

Winning now would be a tangible reality, actual proof of a positive direction. Losing just leads you to more uncertainty in future. There are no guarantees in life. Never take winning for granted.


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#75

Quote:Winning isn't a switch you turn off and on. Winning is a hard earned acquired skill.

 

I would much rather them start winning now than pinning their hopes on a single draft pick that may or may not lead them to win in the future.

 

"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" There is a reason why that is considered a wise saying.

 

Winning now would be a tangible reality, actual proof of a positive direction. Losing just leads you to more uncertainty in future. There are no guarantees in life. Never take winning for granted.
 

I like the way you put this

[Image: 5_RdfH.gif]
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#76

Quote:Winning isn't a switch you turn off and on. Winning is a hard earned acquired skill.

 

I would much rather them start winning now than pinning their hopes on a single draft pick that may or may not lead them to win in the future.

 

"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" There is a reason why that is considered a wise saying.

 

Winning now would be a tangible reality, actual proof of a positive direction. Losing just leads you to more uncertainty in future. There are no guarantees in life. Never take winning for granted.

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#77

Quote:Winning isn't a switch you turn off and on. Winning is a hard earned acquired skill.

 

I would much rather them start winning now than pinning their hopes on a single draft pick that may or may not lead them to win in the future.

 

"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" There is a reason why that is considered a wise saying.

 

Winning now would be a tangible reality, actual proof of a positive direction. Losing just leads you to more uncertainty in future. There are no guarantees in life. Never take winning for granted.


I want to agree with you and most years maybe I would.....but not THIS year. We lack at 2 of the top positions. QB & DE. I see a couple of really good ones at the top and my mouth is watering right now. We haven't ever hit on DE or QB since '96. (Brackens)
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#78

If you want to hear this debate on radio, it's quite a spirited debate on Jaguars Monday between Bosselli and Prisco. There is a link on the main website here. Both have very good arguments.
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#79

Quote:Needs drafting and BAP drafting become more blended the further in the draft you go, based upon his 1st and 2nd round selections I'd consider Caldwell more BAP then he wants to admit. When we drafted Joeckel we didn't have a need at LT, so that was a BAP selection not a need selection.
 

I agree to some extent  - but Caldwell is obviously building with long term goals in mind.  Monroe being in a contract year and the switch in blocking scheme could very well have made it more of a "need" in Caldwell's thinking than we know.   I have a feeling we'll all end up liking that pick either way by this time next year. 

 

I would call Cyprien even more of a "need" pick because Bradley's defensive scheme dictates such a specific style of play in the secondary.  Finding those types was obviously a priority when they took 5 DBs in one draft.  

 

The Sanders and Robinson picks could be viewed as needs as well if you believe Caldwell when he says he and Bradley felt the roster lacked speed.  (regardless of Sanders being more quick than fast - his return role fits the bill)

 

I look forward to learning a lot more about Caldwell's drafting style in the Spring.  Things could really get interesting next time around. 


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#80

Lets put it this way.

 

If the team wins 4 or 5 games that would mean improvement.

 

Caldwell and Bradley both said it's about "getting better."

 

I think winning a few more games this season would give hope for a better product next year.


[Image: mvp.avia8a99974486b2b89.md.png]
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