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The Dareus effect (Run D first 7 weeks vs. last 9)

#1
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2018, 12:40 PM by Jaguarmeister.)

I keep seeing articles on the subject show how the Jags moved from near the bottom of the league to 21st in the league regarding rushing yards given up.  That's all well and good, but I believe it's more pertinent to know the rankings for the team with and without Dareus since the trade occurred considering that's explicitly why he was brought in so I crunched the numbers myself because I couldn't find a site that ranked teams week to week.  If there is one, please point me in that direction for future reference.  There is a site that ranks over the previous 3 weeks (we were number 1 against the run the 3 weeks immediately after the trade), but it won't do last 9 or other groupings of games.

We played 7 games prior to the trade and were ranked 30th in the league giving up an average of 138.57 yards on the ground per game over that span.  After the trade, we played 9 games and gave up an average of 98.89 yards on the ground per game which is good for 7th in the league over that span.

Here's the top 10 in the league (and the Jags) thru the first 7 games with average given up per game:

1.  Eagles     67.0
2.  Broncos   72.86
3.  Vikings    76.57
4.  Bills         80.14
5.  Panthers  81.14
6.  Browns    83.71
7.  Lions       91.57
8.  Dolphins  95.43
9.  tinhorns   96.57
10. tacks     100.14
...
30. Jaguars  138.57

Here's the top 10 (and Buffalo for perspective) thru the last 9 games with average given up per game:

1.  Cardinals 77.0
2.  tacks       79.89
3.  Ravens    84.78
4.  Eagles     88.67
5.  Vikings    89.0
6.  Panthers  93.44
7.  Jaguars   98.89
8.  Steelers   101.22
9.  Packers   101.44
10. 49ers     102.11
...
32. Bills       159.22



These numbers could be further analyzed by separating out RB rushing yards from QB designed runs and scrambles, but that seems like a lot of work and I think these numbers already tell a compelling story and that is that Dareus goes from the #4 team against the rush thru the first 7 games to the #30 team which he then helps turn into the #7 team over the last 9 games while his former club falls to last in the league against the rush.  I don't know that a player's specific value at a particular task could be more pronounced than it is with these numbers.
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#2

Nice work!
Bills can keep saying they made the right move... and for their locker room and future, perhaps they did...
but in the short term, they lost out, and we won.
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#3

Wow impressive.
[Image: Jason-The-Good-Place-Jaguars.png?w=472]
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#4

(01-10-2018, 11:42 AM)Kane Wrote: Nice work!
Bills can keep saying they made the right move... and for their locker room and future, perhaps they did...
but in the short term, they lost out, and we won.

Kudos to the OP for some good research!

As to Kane's observation, I find it interesting the amount of talent purged from the Bills this year.  Aside from Dareus, the Bills jettisoned Watkins and Woods, who wound up productive contributors to the Rams, a playoff team.  They jettisoned Stephone Gilmore and he wound up productive with the Patriots, a playoff team.  They jettisoned CB Ronald Darby to the Eagles, a playoff team.

It makes me admire the work Sean McDermott did as a first year head coach to purge all of that talent in one year from the team and still manage to reach the playoffs, when they hadn't reached it since 1999.

It also makes me wonder if they would have won the game Sunday if they kept some or all of those players.

I don't want to derail the thread, but I will expound upon this further in a future thread.

As to the Jaguars, Dareus has had a noticable impact on the running game, and he wasn't even starting.  I am more confident in our defense with Dareus now than I was before the trade.

In fact, I believe the starting DL of Ngakoue, Dareus, Jackson, and Campbell is the best DL in team history, bar none.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#5
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2018, 07:11 PM by Dakota.)

(01-10-2018, 01:00 PM)Bullseye Wrote: As to the Jaguars, Dareus has had a noticable impact on the running game, and he wasn't even starting.  I am more confident in our defense with Dareus now than I was before the trade.

In fact, I believe the starting DL of Ngakoue, Dareus, Jackson, and Campbell is the best DL in team history, bar none.

That move had Coughlin written all over it. He wanted to find Stroud/Henderson part 2, and did so in quick fashion. I'm sure he was whispering in Caldwell's ear about making the deal.
What lies behind us, and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.







 




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#6
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2018, 01:15 PM by JaguarKick.)

No, no no. This can't be right. The Bills won this trade. All the Bills fans told me so.

I would argue that we no longer HAVE a weakness on defense. Commentators keep talking about how that's how you beat us, is running down our throat. Not any more, it seems.
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#7

Not to mention how the arrival of Dareus seemed to have an impact on Maliks game as well. It definitely motivated him to step it up and now he's a pro bowler.
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#8

(01-10-2018, 01:13 PM)RealJagsFan Wrote: Not to mention how the arrival of Dareus seemed to have an impact on Maliks game as well. It definitely motivated him to step it up and now he's a pro bowler.

It definitely did.

Last month I read a Malik Jackson interview where he said that the Dareus trade was a wake-up call to him, he started to feel as if he was replaceable with the competition being brought in and refocused and worked harder to get back to his standards.
And I think it has been the same for Abry Jones as well.
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#9

(01-10-2018, 01:16 PM)irontrooper83 Wrote:
(01-10-2018, 01:13 PM)RealJagsFan Wrote: Not to mention how the arrival of Dareus seemed to have an impact on Maliks game as well. It definitely motivated him to step it up and now he's a pro bowler.

It definitely did.

Last month I read a Malik Jackson interview where he said that the Dareus trade was a wake-up call to him, he started to feel as if he was replaceable with the competition being brought in and refocused and worked harder to get back to his standards.
And I think it has been the same for Abry Jones as well.

While I believe that Dareus is a better player than Abry Jones, I find it noteworthy-and good- that even though Marrone knew what Dareus was capable of from their time in Buffalo, he did not see fit to name him the starter at DT until Dareus got comfortable with the defensive calls.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#10

(01-10-2018, 01:52 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(01-10-2018, 01:16 PM)irontrooper83 Wrote: It definitely did.

Last month I read a Malik Jackson interview where he said that the Dareus trade was a wake-up call to him, he started to feel as if he was replaceable with the competition being brought in and refocused and worked harder to get back to his standards.
And I think it has been the same for Abry Jones as well.

While I believe that Dareus is a better player than Abry Jones, I find it noteworthy-and good- that even though Marrone knew what Dareus was capable of from their time in Buffalo, he did not see fit to name him the starter at DT until Dareus got comfortable with the defensive calls.

I agree!
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#11

This is quite eye opening. No self respecting analyst should be calling our rush defense a “weak spot” on this team anymore.
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#12

It is concerning knowing that the Bills came in with the worst rush defense in the league over the last 9 weeks and we couldn’t get anything really going on the ground. I know they were selling out against the run, but I feel like we should have been able to have a better showing on the ground last week regardless.
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#13

(01-10-2018, 07:26 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: It is concerning knowing that the Bills came in with the worst rush defense in the league over the last 9 weeks and we couldn’t get anything really going on the ground.  I know they were selling out against the run, but I feel like we should have been able to have a better showing on the ground last week regardless.

This is my thought as well. I know we keep saying if 'good' Blake shows up we will win, but I think its actually more important that 'good' Fournette shows up like he did against the Steelers last time. If we get 'after bye week' Fournette and it all goes back on Blake, I don't like our chances.


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#14

I normally hate trading draft picks, but we gave up no more than a 5th round pick and what we got back was what I expected, a big upgrade at the DT position. I loved this trade! It upgraded our biggest weakness on defense. Now, we can focus almost completely on the offensive side of the football with no worries.
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#15

(01-10-2018, 07:46 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I normally hate trading draft picks, but we gave up no more than a 5th round pick and what we got back was what I expected, a big upgrade at the DT position. I loved this trade! It upgraded our biggest weakness on defense. Now, we can focus almost completely on the offensive side of the football with no worries.

I doubt they completely ignore defense in the draft. I expect a couple of defensive picks. Sometimes a really good player falls to you, ala Telvin Smith. No GM worth his salt would pass on that.
What lies behind us, and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.







 




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#16

(01-10-2018, 07:53 PM)Dakota Wrote:
(01-10-2018, 07:46 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I normally hate trading draft picks, but we gave up no more than a 5th round pick and what we got back was what I expected, a big upgrade at the DT position. I loved this trade! It upgraded our biggest weakness on defense. Now, we can focus almost completely on the offensive side of the football with no worries.

I doubt they completely ignore defense in the draft. I expect a couple of defensive picks. Sometimes a really good player falls to you, ala Telvin Smith. No GM worth his salt would pass on that.

I didn't mean to imply they would completely ignore the defense. I expect us to add a CB and another LB, but I fully expect the bulk of our high picks to be spent upgrading the offense. Maybe a shiny new QB, if we're lucky.
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#17

(01-10-2018, 11:37 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: I keep seeing articles on the subject show how the Jags moved from near the bottom of the league to 21st in the league regarding rushing yards given up.  That's all well and good, but I believe it's more pertinent to know the rankings for the team with and without Dareus since the trade occurred considering that's explicitly why he was brought in so I crunched the numbers myself because I couldn't find a site that ranked teams week to week.  If there is one, please point me in that direction for future reference.  There is a site that ranks over the previous 3 weeks (we were number 1 against the run the 3 weeks immediately after the trade), but it won't do last 9 or other groupings of games.

We played 7 games prior to the trade and were ranked 30th in the league giving up an average of 138.57 yards on the ground per game over that span.  After the trade, we played 9 games and gave up an average of 98.89 yards on the ground per game which is good for 7th in the league over that span.

Here's the top 10 in the league (and the Jags) thru the first 7 games with average given up per game:

1.  Eagles     67.0
2.  Broncos   72.86
3.  Vikings    76.57
4.  Bills         80.14
5.  Panthers  81.14
6.  Browns    83.71
7.  Lions       91.57
8.  Dolphins  95.43
9.  tinhorns   96.57
10. tacks     100.14
...
30. Jaguars  138.57

Here's the top 10 (and Buffalo for perspective) thru the last 9 games with average given up per game:

1.  Cardinals 77.0
2.  tacks       79.89
3.  Ravens    84.78
4.  Eagles     88.67
5.  Vikings    89.0
6.  Panthers  93.44
7.  Jaguars   98.89
8.  Steelers   101.22
9.  Packers   101.44
10. 49ers     102.11
...
32. Bills       159.22



These numbers could be further analyzed by separating out RB rushing yards from QB designed runs and scrambles, but that seems like a lot of work and I think these numbers already tell a compelling story and that is that Dareus goes from the #4 team against the rush thru the first 7 games to the #30 team which he then helps turn into the #7 team over the last 9 games while his former club falls to last in the league against the rush.  I don't know that a player's specific value at a particular task could be more pronounced than it is with these numbers.

Excellent post.  I have nothing further to contribute.
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