When TC and Marrone came aboard, they indicated they wanted a tougher team.  They stated their preference to be a run first team, exaggerating to the point where they said they'd prefer to run the ball all the time.  To that end they drafted RB Leonard Fournette with the fourth pick overall.  At face value, the change in approach worked.  The team led the league in rushing, reducing the number of sacks on Bortles, and turned the team around from a 3 win team in 2016 to a ten win playoff team that was 2:37 away from reaching the Super Bowl last year.

But beneath the surface, you could see the shortcomings.  Fournette averaged 3.9 YPC.  Some might argue that paltry average proved he wasn't worth the pick invested in him.  I would strongly disagree with that sentiment.  With TD runs of 90 and 75 yards, he proved he had breakaway ability and wasn't a pedestrian Eddie George clone.  So why did he have the paltry average...especially in the second half of the AFC Championship game? The ankle injury did him no favors for much of the year.  The same ankle that bothered him his final year at LSU gave him problems here last year.  But something else played a bigger role, in my opinion:  the constant presence of eight or more guys in the box.  My theory is that teams put eight in the box so often, with defenses keying on Fournette, he often had little room to run with effectiveness.  If the premise behind the theory is true, the question then becomes how do we effectively deal with that defensive approach?  How do we get Fournette to a 4.4-4.7 YPC, thereby making the offense more effective? If he averaged that during the AFC Championship game, especially in the second half, there is no way we lose that game.

One of the hallmarks of great running teams in the past like the Gibbs era Skins and the 1990s Cowboys were that they were able to run effectively, even against eight in the box alignments.  Their O-Lines were so powerful, such proficient run blockers, they would move guys out of their gaps and otherwise blow them off the ball giving guys like Riggins, Byner and Emmitt Smith room to run even against an 8 in the box look.  You can make the argument that a guy like Will Hernandez would help this team become a dominant run blocking team.  Imagine Fournette running behind a left side of Robinson-Hernandez-Linder.  It would be hard for me to complain about that, should Hernandez be our first round pick.  In fact, I might even be willing to trade up above Tennessee to ensure we got him.  Fournette could certainly be more productive, if not completely flourish behind that side of the OL. 

However, all else being equal, I might be inclined to go heavy on the offensive skill position players in this draft.  Another hallmark of those great running teams mentioned above is their ability to effectively get that eighth guy out of the box with superb WRs.  Those Gibbs era Skins offered a 3 WR set of Art Monk, Gary Clark, and Rickey Sanders (all had 1000 yard seasons).  Those 90's Cowboys offered Pro Bowler Michael Irvin, deep threat Alvin Harper at receiver, and Pro bowl TE Jay Novacek.  Right now, it's highly questionable whether the Jaguars can come close to offering anything approaching that level of passing game firepower.  If Allen Robinson is re-signed and if his knee is healthy, then he fills in a big part of the puzzle.  But even assuming a best case scenario with him, questions in the receiving corps persist.  Lee is likely gone via free agency if Robinson stays, and Hurns may be cut due to salary.  There is the remote chance that Robinson, Lee and Hurns could all be gone.  While Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole and Mickens showed flashes of ability, Keenan needs to continue to work with them to develop them into guys who can consistently beat the jam, separate, and find the holes in the zone coverages.  If they continue to develop, then the problem is solved.  If, on the other hand, their development plateaus this year or even regresses, that 8th guy in the box will remain, and we may regret passing on WR early in the draft or in free agency.  A TE that can beat the press, pose mismatches against linebackers and safeties and attack the deep seams might also help keep the 8th guy out of the box.  Though Marcedes Lewis had a good game in the AFC Championship, he's way past his prime and not that guy.  Nobody on the roster is that guy, and at 29, that might be a good spot to draft that guy.  Of course, none of this even gets into QB, and whether we should stay with Bortles, go after Cousins, or draft a guy to make the passing game go and have defenses respect the passing game enough to get that 8th guy out of the box.

Given the history of teams of the decade loading up on skill position players to precede their Super Bowl runs, I would be inclined to emphasize skill players generally speaking.  I think the need could also justify going WR early.  Having a QB that can dissect defenses, throwing to WRs that can beat the jam and command safety help and TEs that can attack deep seams and provide a security blanket over the middle when the chips are down can get that 8th guy out of that box and make Fournette more productive.  But based upon how I'm reading the tea leaves thus far (which may be more indicative of tea leaf illiteracy on my part than fact), the value at our first two picks would appear to be at TE and OL.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Even if we had a QB who could dissect defenses, I am not confident Marrone is the HC to use a QB as such in the right way. He would still want to run the ball even if he had Brees. I think what we saw was a team ran by a elementary school teacher that got replaced by a HS teacher. All of a sudden we want to crown Marrone a god, because we were used to the ice cream guy. He called some trick special teams plays yeah, great. I don't like his run run run coaching style, and damnit going conservative when it matters means a lot. The book is out on Marrone so this year he ain't catching up on anyone. I'm not a fan, but I am hoping I am proven wrong.

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Even if we had a QB who could dissect defenses, I am not confident Marrone is the HC to use a QB as such in the right way. He would still want to run the ball even if he had Brees. I think what we saw was a team ran by a elementary school teacher that got replaced by a HS teacher. All of a sudden we want to crown Marrone a god, because we were used to the ice cream guy. He called some trick special teams plays yeah, great. I don't like his run run run coaching style, and damnit going conservative when it matters means a lot. The book is out on Marrone so this year he ain't catching up on anyone. I'm not a fan, but I am hoping I am proven wrong.

The 4th quarter of the AFC Championship game was certainly a disappointing performance by the sideline staff. However, coaches, and coordinators, develop and evolve as well. I would bet that Marrone and staff learned a great lesson from that game, and also by taking note of how Philadelphia never let up when the momentum shifted against them.

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Bullseye, you have pinpointed the biggest issue of the offseason.

The thing I love about football is the same thing I love about music- the endless complexity which produces a result that is pure art. Everything has to be in sync, and everything works together to produce success. Getting Fournette an extra half yard requires contributions from everyone- all 11 guys. Push the defenders out of the way, or lure them out of the box, or deceive them, or beat them up. We have to have every tool in our toolbox.

I've heard people say, "Great teams do what they want regardless of what the other team does." I don't think that is true in this day and age. I don't think we should try to force our will against a defense that is lined up to stop the run. I think we should throw over it. Get more weapons, game plan better, and call better plays. It's the totality of everything that will produce that extra half yard for Fournette.

Personally, I like the idea of our first two picks being TE and OL in no particular order. When they put 8 men in the box, we absolutely must punish them for that. I think a great TE would be a huge asset.

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The_Franchise_QBEven if we had a QB who could dissect defenses, I am not confident Marrone is the HC to use a QB as such in the right way. He would still want to run the ball even if he had Brees. I think what we saw was a team ran by a elementary school teacher that got replaced by a HS teacher. All of a sudden we want to crown Marrone a god, because we were used to the ice cream guy. He called some trick special teams plays yeah, great. I don't like his run run run coaching style, and damnit going conservative when it matters means a lot. The book is out on Marrone so this year he ain't catching up on anyone. I'm not a fan, but I am hoping I am proven wrong.

I don't want to turn this into a Marrone thread.  Barring Marrone suddenly developing health problems that preclude him from coaching or some sort of egregious personal scandal, Marrone isn't going anywhere.  Even if you took away the team's 7 defensive TDs and the punt return, the team still ends up finishing 11th-12th in scoring using his same philosophy, in giving the Jaguars their first winning season in ten years, and their first appearance in the Conference championship game in seventeen.  They aren't going to dump Marrone after that-especially at this late stage.  Besides, dumping Marrone to get an 8th guy out of the box and to get Fournette an extra half yard is dumb.

However, your post raises questions.

How much of that conservative approach is due to a genuine belief in that philosophy, and how much of that is due to a lack of faith in the offensive personnel, specifically in the passing game?  This was a team that apparently was not confident in Bortles, based upon his benching in preseason.  This was a team that did not have its top WR.  Allen Robinson missed the season with a knee injury.  Due to lesser injuries, the team was forced to play  a substantial portion of the late season with two rookies (a 4th round pick and an UDFA) and a street free agent.   But even with his philosophy, this team still wound up putting up 30 against a pretty good Seattle defense, and 45 against a pretty good Steelers defense (31 if you take away the defensive scores/point blank field position).  Again, taking away the defensive scores, the team still is in the top third or so in the league in scoring.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Agreed 100% I think outside of QBs, Hernandez will be the top guy on their board. He is exactly what they want in their LT next to Cam. Would have the run blocking potential of the Seattle team when they had Jones and Hutchinson on the left side imo. Goedert is the only player i could see them taking over Will if he is there, would be a tough decision

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Even if we had a QB who could dissect defenses, I am not confident Marrone is the HC to use a QB as such in the right way. He would still want to run the ball even if he had Brees. I think what we saw was a team ran by a elementary school teacher that got replaced by a HS teacher. All of a sudden we want to crown Marrone a god, because we were used to the ice cream guy. He called some trick special teams plays yeah, great. I don't like his run run run coaching style, and damnit going conservative when it matters means a lot. The book is out on Marrone so this year he ain't catching up on anyone. I'm not a fan, but I am hoping I am proven wrong.

The 4th quarter of the AFC Championship game was certainly a disappointing performance by the sideline staff. However, coaches, and coordinators, develop and evolve as well. I would bet that Marrone and staff learned a great lesson from that game, and also by taking note of how Philadelphia never let up when the momentum shifted against them.

Keep in mind, that game was also played within the context of last year's Patriots come from behind win over Atlanta in the Super Bowl.  Atlanta built a huge lead and didn't run the ball in the second half.  The Patriots were allowed to get back in the game, the defense wore out, and ultimately the Falcons lost.  Even though Marrone's approach in the 4th quarter was unsuccessful, I can see why they employed it, especially when running the ball is the strength of the team and ya go with what got ya there.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Bullseye, you have pinpointed the biggest issue of the offseason.  

The thing I love about football is the same thing I love about music- the endless complexity which produces a result that is pure art.   Everything has to be in sync, and everything works together to produce success.   Getting Fournette an extra half yard requires contributions from everyone- all 11 guys.  Push the defenders out of the way, or lure them out of the box, or deceive them, or beat them up.    We have to have every tool in our toolbox.  

I've heard people say, "Great teams do what they want regardless of what the other team does."   I don't think that is true in this day and age.  I don't think we should try to force our will against a defense that is lined up to stop the run.   I think we should throw over it.   Get more weapons, game plan better, and call better plays.  It's the totality of everything that will produce that extra half yard for Fournette.  

Personally, I like the idea of our first two picks being TE and OL in no particular order.   When they put 8 men in the box, we absolutely must punish them for that.  I think a great TE would be a huge asset.

I think your analogy between football and music is a good one.  No one thing in football occurs in a vacuum.  If one thing goes wrong, there is the potential for disaster, no matter which side of the ball you are talking about.  An offensive playcaller can call the absolute right play for the defense that is presented.  But if a receiver incorrectly runs a route, whether at the wrong length or just flat out running the wrong route, everything else can be executed perfectly, but the play could result in an incompletion or INT.  If the RB does not effectively carry out the play fake, perhaps the LBs do not bite underneath, not creating enough clearance for the receivers running behind them.  An incompletion or INT can result then.  If the receivers run the right routes and the RB executes the play fake perfectly, the QB can make the right reads, both pre snap and during the play, but if one lineman out of five misses his block or is beaten, the QB can throw an incompletion, INT, can get sacked, fumble, hurt, or some combination of the above.  In a gap control defense, if one guy decides to freelance and leaves his gap, that could result in a first down or TD.

There is something to the idea that a great team can impose its will on an opponent.  However, I think part of that is the idea that a great team can effectively disguise its will, because they have effective alternatives to their strengths that can make opponents pay for trying to take away their strengths.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Agreed 100%  I think outside of QBs,  Hernandez will be the top guy on their board.  He is exactly what they want in their LT next to Cam.  Would have the run blocking potential of the Seattle team when they had Jones and Hutchinson on the left side imo.  Goedert is the only player i could see them taking over Will if he is there, would be a tough decision

I will say that if Henrandez is rated comparable to Hutchinson as a run blocker and even just average as a pass protector, no way he lasts to our pick, even as a G.  Hutchinson was a mid first round pick.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I miss these opportunities to get long-winded about football. Thanks for the thread Bullseye!

A thing that I have learned about football strategy is that there are two things that Defense's hate; Space and Time. In regards to time, it's the lack of time specifically.

Way way wayyyy back in the day, 1947 to be exact, Coach Eddie Robinson of Grambling adopted the Wing T formation and went on to win 408 games over his career. What the Wing T did was it took the traditional T as used by George Halas and it moved two players. It moved one of the Halfbacks up towards the Line of Scrimmage in a "wing" position and it split out one of the Ends. It can be argued that the development of a Wing Player was the greatest offensive improvement in the history of the game. It added more yards per play than any other scheme change. But don't forget that Split End. His new spot was critical as well, and he wasn't moved out to help the Passing game, he was moved out to help the Run. 

Now look at what the two different formations does to a given Defense. First, let's start with a 'T' and how teams would align.

--------------------F
--C - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - C
- - - - - - - - W - - - M - - - $ 
----E - - - T - - - N - - - T - - - - E
-------5 - T - G - C - G - T - 6
--------------------1
---
---
-----------3 - - - - - - - - 4
--------------------2

This is the proverbial "eight in the box" configuration that brings the Strong Side Safety ($) down close to the LoS in order to help out with the Tight End (6). Now, let's move our pieces around to the Wing T:

---5 - - - - T - G - C - G - T - 6
----------------------1 - - - - - - - - 4
---
---
-----------3 
----------------------2


Think about how a Defense would align to that. First off, the C would want to either move out and go head up on '5' or at the least back up and take an inside shade on him in order to stop the Slant. Next, how is that Defensive End going to account for where '4' is playing? He has to keep plays inside of him so he will slide out to make it harder for 4 to reach him and pin him inside.

Now, there's one more trick that Robinson sometimes used; it's called the 'Nasty' split. I have no idea why it's called that, but if you slide your TE out one gap further, but still keep him in a 3 point stance, it's referred to as a Nasty Split. So now let's look at how the Defense will align.

----------------------F
--C - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - C
- - - - - - - - - - W - - - M - - - - - - $ 
-----------E - T - - N - - - T - - - - - - - E

---5 - - - - T - G - C - G - T - - - 6
----------------------1 - - - - - - - - - - 4
---
---
-----------3 
----------------------2

The Defense will want to widen itself out in order to keep the Offense in contain. The Defense is reacting to the formation and thereby creating one thing that it hates, Space! Now, these are rudimentary shifts and changes that have been around for decades, but the overlying concept is the same. If you want to run, widen the formation. The Defense will have to widen itself out in order to keep the offense from out-flanking it. When it does this, run inside of it.

So while more, better talent is always always always a great idea, there are some other ways that can help as well. Is the Defense going to put eight in the box? Then make that box as wide as you can.

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I'm trying to make myself more informed and less opinionated.

Stop saying whatever stupid thing you're talking about and pay attention to all the interesting things I have to say!

Great post as always Bullseye.

8 men in the box issue: While having a better QB would reduce the amount of 8 men boxes we see theres also the reality that our run style and personnel groupings is going to lead to more 8 men boxes than most teams. The more you use groupings with a FB+ TE/TE2 the more men will be in the box. Our FB played 25% of snaps which is one of the highest in the league. Also I'd wager our first down run % is one of the highest in the league.

Few solutions I can think of : - Get creative and run more with 3 WRs on the field. Use Pistol. Get a H-back who can play FB and split out wide if needs be (Dimitri Flowers, Jaylen Samuels) . Shotgun isn't LF7s strength but whatever. More trick plays with guys like Grant. Hackett is good at them.

- Bulk up the line like hell. In a mock I did in the Fanspeak thread I gave Hernandez to the Jags in the first and Frank Ragnow C/G in the 2nd. A line of Cam-Hernandez-Ragnow-Linder for for the next seasons? Yeah thats gonna demolish most teams boxes no matter what they do.

Then you also have to hope LF7 gets better at a) Keeping his ankle healthy and B) Seeing the field better. Both of these would have a big impact as he can definitely take it to the house if he gets a crease.
Whatever happens we are likely to face a lot of 8 men boxes next year too. Smarter playcalling, coaching and better performance from our interior will result in an event better run game.

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Confusing title.  I associate "Half Yards" with the concept below....

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Well, if it's any consolation, LeVeon Bell only averaged 3.5 yards his rookie season.

Not saying they're similar backs or anything, but Fournette could break out with a year of experience and a chance to heal that foot up. Lateral agility seems to be lacking in Fournette's game and he needs to be able to, or learn to, plant and cut rather than doing that useless spin move.

And I'd be perfectly happy with a guard in the first round.

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https://www.facebook.com/NFL/videos/10156219140266263/

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

https://www.facebook.com/NFL/videos/10156219140266263/

Nice analysis. Thanks for posting.

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https://www.facebook.com/NFL/videos/10156219140266263/

Good stuff.

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https://www.facebook.com/NFL/videos/10156219140266263/

Very encouraging.

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