Earlier today, the league announced a pre draft trade between the Jets and Colts.  To move from #6 to #3, the Jets sent Indy the #6 overall pick, and three second round picks-the #37 and #49 picks this year, and next year's second round pick.

Without question, this represents a good deal for the Colts.  Starting off looking at trade value charts, the #3 pick was worth 2200 points.  The point total for the Jets picks from this year alone equaled 2540 points, which does not factor in the 2019 2nd round pick.  It has been said a future pick goes down a round in value in a year's time.  In other words, a 2019 2nd round pick is worth a 3rd round pick in this year's terms, making it worth, at most, 265 points. If my math is right, that's a 78% "profit" in terms of trade value points. 

Examining the Colts needs and the talent available in this draft, the return from this trade will, theoretically, enable the Colts to get better in a hurry.  At 6, the Colts could still possibly land Bradley Chubb, giving them the pass rusher they desperately need and presumably would have targeted at 3, possibly land Saquon Barkley, if the Browns do the unexpected at 1 or 4, or at the very least, should net them Quentin Nelson, the rare G candidate worthy of top ten consideration.  With their three second round picks this year, the Colts could dig into this deep and talented G class to rebuild their OL, take a young RB, or fill any number of holes.  Or they could package these picks in any number of ways to trade up and down throughout this draft.  Indeed, it puts the Colts in a strong position in this draft, and gives them a head start on next year's haul.

As news of this trade spread, I've seen some Jaguars fans wistfully wonder why the Jaguars don't seem to be able to trade back and get hauls of this nature.  One Jaguars fan astutely observed that the Jaguars had five straight years of top 5 picks without such a haul coming to us, while the tacks and now the Colts have hit draft pick jackpots.

But I submit to you that these draft hauls are not always what they are cracked up to be.  While the abundance of picks and the versatility and potential they offer are nice, those picks still have to turn into productive players, those players have to form a team, and that team has to become winners.  History has proven time and time again there is no guarantee of such a transformation in the aftermath of such trades.

Perhaps the most famous instance of this wasted potential (and certainly the oldest in this discussion) are the Los Angeles rams after the 1987 Eric Dickerson trade.  HOF RB Eric Dickerson, who held the NFL's single season rushing record, becoming the 2nd player in NFL history to eclipse 2000 yards rushing, was perpetually unhappy in Los Angeles due to money issues.  The Rams wound up trading Dickerson to Indianapolis in a 3 way deal that sent unsigned rookie holdout LB Cornelius Bennett to Buffalo.  The Rams wound up with three first round picks and three second round picks in exchange from the Colts and Bills.  https://www.nytimes.com/1987/11/01/sport...colts.html.  The Rams botched almost every single pick from that draft haul.  As a result, they went from appearing in the conference championship game in 1989 to one of the worst teams in football by 1991.  http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/teams/rams

The Rams were guilty of botching another draft haul more recently in the aftermath of the RG III trade of 2012.  Washington was desperate for a QB and moved up to get RG III. In exchange for giving up the #2 overall pick that year, the Skins gave the Rams the #6 overall pick that year, a 2nd round pick that year #36 overall, a 2013 first round pick, and a 2014 first round pick.  Unlike their experience from the 1987 Eric Dickerson trade, their post trade drafts were not quite so egregious.  They DID land guys like Janoris Jenkins, Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers.  Yet we sit here five years later, and they have no Super Bowls to show for their efforts.  In fact, the coach they had at the time of the trade, Jeff Fisher, has been fired, many of the players from those drafts are now gone, and the team just now reached the playoffs only last year.  https://www.chatsports.com/nfl/a/revisit...lost-34020

The tacks also epitomize a botched draft trade back bonanza.  Due to prolific suckage, the tacks had the #2 overall pick in 2015, which they used on Marcus Mariota.  Mariota was not enough to stop them from sucking in 2015, so they had the #1 overall in 2016.  I quote the terms directly from the article.

Quote:The terms are as follows: Tennessee gets: Rams' first-round pick (2016), two second-round picks (2016), a third-round pick (2016), a first-round pick (2017) and another third-round pick (2017).   
 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000...rom-titans

While the Titans have improved from the 2015 ineptitude, nobody thinks they are a juggernaut.  In fact, an examination of their picks show that while they wound up with a stud RT in Conklin, they got nothing out of their second round picks in OLB Kevin Dodd and DT Johnson, both of whom languish on the bench.  They landed RB Derrick Henry in the 3rd, but they could have gotten him without that trade.  Despite all of those deals, they still have holes on the roster.

I could also cite the 2000 Jets (4 first round picks that year) and the Browns of recent years, but that would belabor the point.
Teams and coaches like the 1986 Bill Walsh 49ers and the 1990s Jimmy Johnson coached Cowboys in the aftermath of the Herschel Walker deal, who know how to accumulate picks, evaluate talent, draft and develop the players are the exceptions.  Most teams blow it.

If none of the above convince you to not envy the Colts, let me close with this: the Jaguars never got any of those trade back bonanzas and made it to the AFC Championship game.  None of those other teams who got these draft pick windfalls have.

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