(03-17-2018, 09:33 PM)Bullseye Wrote:

(03-17-2018, 05:17 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: The thing about the Jaguars that makes me wish they would have traded back more often is they've so often seemed to reach for guys they could have had later, (or a player of equal or greater ability, in my opinion) or who were questionable for the spot they were taken in.

The Fournette pick last season epitomizes it to me. He's a talented running back, but the two highest performing backs in the draft weren't even taken on the first day of the draft. Imagine if the Jaguars had traded back with the Panthers and gotten Lattimore in the first instead of Fournette, the Panthers' second round pick last year and this year, maybe even more, and taken someone like Hunt with one of those second round picks last year.

The Jaguars wouldn't have cared about keeping Colvin, would have had a running back that looks to perform, had at least an extra second rounder this year, and have a secondary for the ages right now.

2016 draft everything came together to allow the Jaguars to get Ramsey and Jack, but in 2015 they reached for Fowler, and arguably did the same in 2014 for Bortles.

The draft is all about value and if you're not 100% sure you're getting a great player in a slot then if you can great value for the pick you should be taking the value.

I am having this debate with TMD as well.

My question to you is when did Caldwell have any real viable opportunity to get a deal like the Colts?

The 2013 draft, especially at the top, was a complete load of crap.  Not only were there no QBs worthy of a top 5 selection in that draft, from a talent perspective outside of QB, there weren't any real game changing players that commanded those kind of trade up offers.  The Raiders originally had the 3rd pick, IIRC.  They only got a 2nd round pick for trading with Miami to move down 9 spots.

The 2014 draft was the Bortles draft.  The team needed a QB and the Jaguars felt Bortles was worthy of a top 3 selection.  Supposedly, the Bills offered the same deal they offered Cleveland at 4 (the 9 overall in 2014 and their first rounder in 2015).  But Caldwell wasn't going to risk missing out on the QB he wanted.  Cleveland traded  the past two years and missed out on Wentz and Watson.  1 win out of 32 games later, the Browns still don't have their QB.  Jacksonville could have suffered a similar fate.  Instead, Bortles had us 2:37 away from the Super Bowl.

The top of the 2015 draft had two potential franchise signal callers in Winston and Mariota.  Jacksonville picked 3rd.  There wasn't the demand for the 3rd pick in 2015 the way there is this year with three QBs presumably carrying top 5 grades.  Even if Caldwell took a player you agreed was not a reach at three, the fact is he still would have failed to get the trade down package the Colts got through no real fault of his own (aside from picking enough good players in 2014 to win enough games to knock them to 3rd overall).

You acknowledge everything came together in 2016.  I'd hate to think that at this stage, anyone can find fault with Caldwell for not trading down and getting a Colts like deal when standing pat got us Ramsey, Jack, and Ngakoue.  To be honest, the Colts, with all their picks, will be damn lucky to get three players of that caliber in this draft.

In referencing last year, there are a few things to consider.  First, TC has a preference for bigger RBs.  To the degree he had influence in the draft room, it influenced the decision to draft Fournette.  Secondly, if we were offered a trade down deal with the Panthers, there's no guarantee we take either of the backs you mention later.  Taking Lattimore at 9 could have altered the course of the draft for everyone between 9 and our pick in the 3rd round and they may not have been available, or they may not have been viewed as a fit by Coughlin.  Furthermore, even if we took one of them in the 3rd, there's no guarantee they have a similar level of success here they had in KC or New Orleans.  Presumably, we'd still have the same holes at G we had last year.  Presumably, defenses still wouldn't respect the passing game, especially after Robinson blew out his knee on the 3rd play.  Why wouldn't they load 8-9 men in the box just like they did last year?  Why would they have significantly more success against those fronts?  By the way, I made a post around this time last year arguing for Lattimore at 4.  There were a few who commented on it who indicated it would be too much allocated to one area, because we just signed Bouye a year after drafting Ramsey.  https://www.duvalpride.com/showthread.ph...#pid978106


At the end of the day, given how well the Jaguars have drafted and the results we finally achieved once we finally got competent coaching and some veteran leadership, lamenting about Caldwell not trading back and getting a Colts like deal is nitpicking.

Clearly we can never know just what was left on the table, because Caldwell won't admit his fixation on certain guys and other teams won't admit they wanted to trade away value to land someone they were in love with, but in every draft there is opportunity to trade around. How do we know this? We can just go back and look at the drafts and observe the number of trades.

The 2014 draft is a great example, there were two trades in the top 5 picks and three in the top 10. Buffalo traded up to get Sammy Watkins (a terrible move) but that could have been a trade the Jaguars made instead, and guys like Odell Beckham Jr, Aaron Donald, and Taylor Lewan were all available after Buffalo's #8 pick. Now that doesn't mean that Buffalo was willing to give the Jaguars what they wanted to get to that spot, but Cleveland clearly understood just how flat the talent level at the top of that draft was. Teams picking 10-15 arguably got players as good as the teams picking 1-5. Would taking Aaron Donald at #8 and getting another 3rd rounder from Buffalo have been worth it? Maybe, or maybe not. All we can do is look at what the results were, and the Jaguars got a middle tier starting QB at #3 when they could have gotten a perennial all pro player there instead.

2015 had no big trades at the top, but that doesn't mean there wasn't some opportunity for it, plus Dante Fowler wasn't even close to a can't miss pass rush prospect. In fact his dings going into the draft have clearly shown to be correct, mostly that he wasn't actually a pass rusher in college and had shown no ability to generate pass rush. If a guy doesn't actually generate pass rush, and instead can only be a complementary rusher when others are the ones creating the mismatches I'd argue he's not even close to being worthy of a #3 overall selection. I was a Leonard Williams advocate going into the 2015 draft, and while he hasn't set the world on fire, either, he's been a more impactful player than Fowler, who would be more aptly named "Fouler" for what seems to be his biggest on field contributions.

2016 has a Golden egg laid right on Caldwell's lap, I can't blame him for not trading back from Ramsey.

2017 is another example of trades being there if Caldwell wanted one. There was a top 10 trade after the Jaguars' pick. Also a lot of noise was made about Carolina badly wanting to get Fournette. Could the Jaguars have gotten an extra 2nd and maybe more? We'll never know, but if they could have then they should have taken it, in my opinion.

Though I will say the Jaguars continual winning of games late in lost seasons has probably contributed to a lot of their draft problems. Moving down several spots in a meaningless late season game under Gus didn't help anything, but happened in several seasons. The Jaguars sucked badly from 2008 to 2017 but never got a #1 overall pick.

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