(03-18-2018, 07:50 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: Great post, Bullseye.   It got me to thinking, what is the success rate of draft picks by round in which they are taken?   And I found the following:  
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https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20...t-by-round

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
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So, while the Colts got a nice haul of second round picks, if only half of them become consistent starters, then they got what, one or two consistent starters out of this trade?   And what is that worth in the long run?   Not much.

I've heard Charlie Casserly speak in even bleaker terms regarding the chances of success by round.

But taking that at face value, your closing analysis is astute.

If they came up with a trio equal to or better than Ramsey, Jack and Ngakoue in this draft, then there is cause for concern.  But the Colts would be damn lucky to accomplish that feat, even with all of those extra picks.

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