(03-18-2018, 02:08 PM)JackCity Wrote:

(03-18-2018, 11:40 AM)nate Wrote: The concept of "the draft is all about value" is a fantasy-type concept.  You get good players that fit on your team that make a difference.

The above concept is one built on the BAP theory which is also a fantasy that hasn't been employed by teams realistically since FA and the cap began.  

Our running game and concept for it changed completely with the LF pick, and it worked astonishingly well.  That, as a concept, is one that worked and resulted in the playoff run we enjoyed.

You saw from 2012-2016 our leading rusher having 800 yards or less or like 45 yards a game.  There is more to it than assigning some random fantasy "value" number.

I appreciate an attempt at an analytical way of looking at it, but there is a lot more to it.

The NFL Draft (and team building as a whole) IS all about value though.   

Teams that consistently disregard value in the draft remain bad. Teams that consistently disregard value in FA remain bad.  

If you aren't trying to get the best combination of value/talent/need with each and every pick in the draft you are doing it incorrectly.  

You saying it's a fantasy doesn't make it so unfortunately. Just look at the best teams every year.

I disagree about the NFL draft and team building as a whole being all about value.

First, there's no way to determine at what point the true value of a move has been realized.  Given what Cleveland got from Philadelphia in the immediate aftermath of the trade from 2 to 8 in 2016, you'd think they got great value from the trade.  Several picks for one, including an extra 1 and 2 in the future.  Yet examining the trade two years removed, the Browns sold the family cow (Wentz) for a handful of not so magic beans (the picks not named Wentz) that gave them severe flatulence and indigestion when thinking about the loss of the family cow, yet still left them starving.

If you were looking at the Tom Brady selection in 2000 at the time it was made, very few people would have called it phenomenal value.  Most likely, people responded to that pick with a shrug.  There weren't teams willing to trade future first round picks for the 199th selection in that draft.  Some 18 years later, it was quite possibly the most valuable pick in NFL history.  Conversely, there have been plenty of trades up for first round picks that garnered more in value in return than that 199th pick in 2000 that wound up being worse than less than the face value of the 199th pick in 2000.

It always has been about correctly evaluating talent, however.  It's always has been about knowing how the players remaining on the board best fit your scheme, how their character and physical traits will transition into a career as an NFL player, and making the best decision from there.  NFL teams don't care what outsiders think about the value they got for their pick or picks.  At the end of the day, the concern is the same-did the player help the team win?

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