(03-18-2018, 04:20 PM)Bullseye Wrote: (03-18-2018, 02:08 PM)JackCity Wrote: The NFL Draft (and team building as a whole) IS all about value though.
Teams that consistently disregard value in the draft remain bad. Teams that consistently disregard value in FA remain bad.
If you aren't trying to get the best combination of value/talent/need with each and every pick in the draft you are doing it incorrectly.
You saying it's a fantasy doesn't make it so unfortunately. Just look at the best teams every year.
I disagree about the NFL draft and team building as a whole being all about value.
First, there's no way to determine at what point the true value of a move has been realized. Given what Cleveland got from Philadelphia in the immediate aftermath of the trade from 2 to 8 in 2016, you'd think they got great value from the trade. Several picks for one, including an extra 1 and 2 in the future. Yet examining the trade two years removed, the Browns sold the family cow (Wentz) for a handful of not so magic beans (the picks not named Wentz) that gave them severe flatulence and indigestion when thinking about the loss of the family cow, yet still left them starving.
If you were looking at the Tom Brady selection in 2000 at the time it was made, very few people would have called it phenomenal value. Most likely, people responded to that pick with a shrug. There weren't teams willing to trade future first round picks for the 199th selection in that draft. Some 18 years later, it was quite possibly the most valuable pick in NFL history. Conversely, there have been plenty of trades up for first round picks that garnered more in value in return than that 199th pick in 2000 that wound up being worse than less than the face value of the 199th pick in 2000.
It always has been about correctly evaluating talent, however. It's always has been about knowing how the players remaining on the board best fit your scheme, how their character and physical traits will transition into a career as an NFL player, and making the best decision from there. NFL teams don't care what outsiders think about the value they got for their pick or picks. At the end of the day, the concern is the same-did the player help the team win?
How do you build a consistently good team without being great at getting value? Telvin Smith in the 5th is an example of great value. He fell with his size, test failure and questions marks about his ability to play in different schemes. We selected him and placed him in the perfect role/scheme for him. The result? One of the best LBs in the NFL. Getting good value also extends to FA. The Patriots do it every year. They take cast offs or undervalued assets from other teams.
Important to look at the different parts involved in that Browns trade. They got good value from trading back in the form of quality draft assets. They then made awful use of said assets (and their value) by selecting badly. Wentz would not be 2017 Wentz in Cleveland and he was by no means a sure thing coming out. Good value trade, bad value result through poor drafting.
Well of course people weren't calling Bradys selection phenomenal value. He ended up being the biggest outlier (and value selection) in the history of the NFL. He was a backup/borderline NFL player who developed into arguably the greatest player ever.
Correctly evaluating talent is directly linked to the pursuit of "value" though. As is selecting players that best fit your scheme. Of course NFL teams don't care what outsiders think? Why would they?
