(08-03-2018, 09:51 AM)B2hibry Wrote:

(08-03-2018, 08:32 AM)mikesez Wrote:
Exactly.  Thank you.

Post #63 and #65 is your statements that tax cuts decrease revenue. All extra curricular aside, you are wrong. You even attempt to support your argument with short term data. Here lies the issue. There is no point that you’ve made that is cohesive to what Jaggy stated referring to economic equilibriums or that changes are not immediate. In fact other than Laffer, you have been polar opposite. Even then, it appears you may be misinterpreting the Laffer curve. I introduced it to show tax cuts work in the “Prohibitive Range” by increasing consumer spending and demand. Businesses will grow and hire. Goverment revenue will increase in the long-run. You argue against fact and all of this by definitively stating “tax cuts decrease revenue.” Data is dangerous when used incorrectly.


If your point was wait and see or data doesn’t yet reflect current economic growth, than that is what you should have been supporting all along...Not a bogus tax cuts decrease revenue belief (non-recovery or recession).

Tax cuts almost always decrease revenue in the short term.  
Federal receipts for the months of Jan-Mar and May-Jun 2018 are capturing the short term trend as one would expect.  When the receipts for April 2019 are reported, we will see the full picture of short term data.  And a reduction is more likely than not.
The only time that tax cuts can increase revenue in the short term is if you are to the right of the peak of the Laffer Curve.  But where is the peak of the Laffer Curve?

Quote: "The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics reports that estimates of revenue-maximizing tax rates have varied widely, with a mid-range of around 70%.[4] There is a consensus among leading economists that a reduction in the US federal income tax rate would not raise annual total tax revenue.[5]   ...  In 2012, economists surveyed by the University of Chicago rejected the viewpoint that the Laffer Curve's postulation of increased tax revenue through a rate cut applies to federal US income taxes of the time in the medium term. When asked whether a “cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would raise taxable income enough so that the annual total tax revenue would be higher within five years than without the tax cut”, none of the economists surveyed agreed and 71% disagreed."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve


Tax cuts can trigger effects that will increase revenue in the long term.  Perhaps people get off of the sidelines of the economy and off of the black market, or perhaps new investments were made that start to yield dividends.  
We won't know if this one had that effect for another couple of years.  The likelihood of interest rates increasing doesn't improve the chances, though.

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