(01-10-2019, 04:04 PM)Last42min Wrote: Is a popular vote meaningful or not? You seemed to think they were a page ago. Enough so that you support switching to a direct election.

Look. I get what you are suggesting: That neither party is trying to win the popular vote, and that if they tried, the numbers would shift. You have no evidence to support that claim.... only that it is possible (even though it goes against the recent voting patterns). This is a logical fallacy known as an appeal to probability. I guess anything is possible. It's possible we'll be conquered by Brazil and Mexico and we'll get the national popular vote you want with lots and lots of parties. It's also possible that you punched yourself in the face before you posted that argument, so you weren't thinking clearly. Really, I guess we can go anywhere with this type of reasoning.

The Chiefs were the best team in 2019.  They are likely to be the best team next year.  If we changed the rules of football for 2019 such that a touch back still gives you the ball at the 25 but also gives you 1 point, do you think that makes the Chiefs more likely, or less likely, to be the best team next year?  Punters would try to avoid touchbacks even more, obviously.  Kickers might stop going for touchbacks on kickoffs.   Attempts to bring the ball out of the end zone would decrease.  But how would it affect the Chiefs? Obviously we don't know.  You could figure out if the chiefs gave up more touchbacks last year than other teams did, but that wouldn't mean much because their strategy would change in 2019 with the new rule.

Because you are detached, you'd calmly realize that you don't know if any particular team benefits, and you'd think about the rule change in terms of if it makes the game more entertaining overall instead.

I'm not arguing from probability.  I'm arguing that we don't know, and can't know if either current party benefits.  I'm arguing that the real winners would be independent candidates.
You're the one arguing from probability.
You're the one saying that past results predict future performance even after a rules change.

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