(03-05-2019, 02:40 PM)Bullseye Wrote: One thing I have learned in the 17 or so years I have been posting here is that posters come and go.  While some quality posters have left the board during that time, I am not talking about a particular poster.

Nevertheless, there are, for want of better phrasing, philosophical  absences that normally arise ghis time of year that have been nowhere to be found in my readings of the boards.  I have yet to see anyone arguing for BAP this year.  I also see nobody advocating drafting defense anywhere in the first three rounds, especially in the first.

On its face, the lack of BAP or defensive advocacy is understandable.  Offense is clearly the deficient side, with needs at every area of the offense.  It is close to universal truth that Bortles is gone, and Kessler failed miserably in his stint.  The team was so disappointed in Fournette, TC publicly trashed him and tried to rescind his bonus, an act that is still being decided by the league and NFLPA.  Hyde was a disappointment as a midseason replacement for Fournette.  Yeldon and Grant are likely gone in free agency.  We have no true answer at WR.  Most are unknowns for various reasons.  TE is completely devoid of talent, especially that defenses have to respect.  The offensive line could have to replace the entire right side, just months after injuries depleted the available talent on the o line to ridiculously low levels.

However, the lack of pure BAP or defensive advocacy is not fully understood upon closer scrutiny.   The experts on NFL Network,  ESPN a d various internet sites are virtually unanimous in thinking this is a defensive heavy draft.  It is not out of the question to see the top five picks become a defensive monopoly.   Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network's new lead draft analyst, said 21 of 32 possible first round draft picks will be on the defensive side of the ball.  Furthermore,  it's not as if last year's defense was the reincarnation of the '85 Bears, or for that matter, the '17 Jaguars.  There were several performances that left questions regarding how good the defense is, including embarrassing efforts against Dallas and the second Tennessee game.  The run defense left a lot to be desired, and the pass rush was not as strong.  The same cap concerns that led to last year's draft strategy still loom over this team, which takes on added significance when dealing with the contracts of Ramsey, Jack, and Ngakoue.  Finally, age could soon become a factor with Calais Campbell, Gipson, and Dareus.  There seems plenty of justification for going defense early under a BAP and needs analysis, yet few seem to be advancing those arguments this year.

Why do you think that is?

You make some very good points about our roster situation.   

As for the philosophical question, BAP vs need, I used to be very strongly in favor of BAP always, but I've come to realize, the answer in each hypothetical case can be very complicated.  There are too many legitimate factors that go into the decision so you can't make a hard and fast rule.  

Ideally, of course, if the best available player does not play a position of need, you should trade down.  But what if you can't make a deal to trade down.  So then you are faced with a dilemma.  

So you have a need- how much of a need is it?  Does the BAP fit the 2nd biggest need?  
How much better is he than the next best player?  How big of a reach is the next best player at a position of need?  
Can you take the best available player and trade your starter?   
If it's not a need, can you still use the best available player?  Would he be in a rotation like defensive linemen?  Or will he just sit on the bench like a backup QB?  
If you take the best available player, for example a CB, and ignore a DIRE need, for example offensive line, do you have a superstar QB who is going to get crippled if you don't somehow get an offensive lineman?  
Does the BAP not fit your system at all?  
BAP is a long term strategy.  Need is a short term strategy.  How long is your window going to be open?  

That's just scratching the surface.  It's just too complicated.   It depends on the situation and a multitude of considerations.

As for our particular situation, granted, in another year we may have dire needs on defense, but right now we have dire needs on offense, for example, TE.   So, lets hypothetically say it's our pick, and the BAP is a DE, suppose we have him rated 7th best player in the draft, but there is a TE who we rate as the 9th best player in the draft, but we cannot find a trade partner to trade down to 9th.   What do we do?  You make the call. 

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