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MalabarJag · 04-26-2019, 11:35 AM

(04-25-2019, 07:08 PM)TJBender Wrote:
(04-25-2019, 06:05 PM)MalabarJag Wrote:
Hurricanes are not more frequent, nor stronger. The ACE Index is flat vs. time. Multi-year droughts are no more frequent either, and tornadoes are down.

It would take millennia to make a dent in Greenland or Antarctica. We will be in another ice age long before there's a significant sea level rise. The tide gauges show the same rate of sea level change that they have since they were first recorded, some with more than 100 years of data (different from site to site because of land movement, but all show a constant rate). Catastrophic sea level rise, and especially an acceleration in the rate, are flat out lies. Don't believe me? Go look at the tide gauges on NOAA.gov.

Actually, we've seen a very active stretch of hurricane seasons, and with more intense hurricanes than usual. Take Michael for a wild, near to my heart example. Hurricanes in the Gulf in October have a consistent pattern. They strengthen fairly quickly up to around 100-110mph, then they stop strengthening and fan out. Michael went nuts despite intense wind shear that should have torn it apart. The only reason it stopped strengthening at 160mph is because a beach got in the way of its party. It did this because the sea surface temperatures on the Gulf were anywhere from 2-5C higher than they've historically been in October. You can look at Irma, Maria, Matthew, take your pick of storms that greatly beat their intensity forecasts. And you can say, "Well, the forecasting was bad." Well, yeah, it was at the longer intervals, because lots of tropical forecasting relies on previous trends and averages until the 48-72h window. If storms are getting significantly bigger and more powerful, that's going to mess with forecasting of them, and it's also going to tell you that these things are bigger and more powerful than they used to be.

We just went through the longest stretch in history (by far!) of no major (cat 3 or higher) hurricanes hitting the US mainland. But that's not evidence of global weather moderation any more than a few hurricanes are evidence of global weather worsening. Like I posted before, the ACE index, which covers the whole globe, has been flat over time.

When one side tries to use a specific event to prove a scientific theory then they don't understand science. One can disprove a theory with one observation, but no number of observations will definitively prove a theory. In the case of Global Warming the prediction of a tropical upper troposphere hot spot has failed. That alone should end the theory, but there is way too much political advantage and funding advantage to admit the theory is wrong.

"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"