(06-20-2019, 05:31 PM)Predator Wrote:

(06-20-2019, 05:01 PM)mikesez Wrote: Chaos would certainly ensue.  
I just doubt Russia or China would involve themselves.  They have no footprint over there, nothing to build on.
Whoever conquers the wells will want the oil to flow.
Saddam Hussein's army briefly overran this part of Saudi Arabia in 1991, and they might still be there if we hadn't decided to intervene.  Iran might have butted in by now in that alternate history, though.
The only possible bad outcome for NATO countries is one army having a greater share of world oil production than Saudi or Iraq have today.  Saddam certainly intended to gain that kind of near monopoly for himself, but, there were lighter and more subtle ways to prevent all of that, compared to the course we chose in 1991.  We could have let it play out a little longer.  Saddam was overextending.

Russia and China have huge interest in the region. It has some of the largest oil reserves in the world. You don't need to have a footprint when the door is left wide open for you.

Do you not remember Russia annexing part of the Ukraine just to get their oil reserves? You really don't think they would take a keen interest in expanding their influence in the region? They're already in Syria.

They would be more than happy to expand their influence to Saudi Arabia and fulfill the all needs of their 60+billion dollar military budget and be the favored trading partner for all that oil.

Russia annexed part of Ukraine because historically it was part of Russia. The people there spoke Russian rather than Ukrainian. The Shale gas was probably a necessary ingredient of their interest, but it wasn't the only ingredient.  
Russia has parked its Navy at Sevastopol (in Crimea) for over a century. And they've been parked at Tartus (Syria) for a long time as well.
The interest in maintaining is navy bases is probably stronger than the interest in getting a little more Shale gas.

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