Survey of academic economists predicts a "major recession."  

http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/coronavirus-2

I don't think the stock market has priced in a major recession yet.  If we have a major recession, I'm pretty sure the market will go much lower.

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The Greatest Depression has been scheduled since 2008. Only massive intervention by central banks and "mark-to-make-believe" accounting tricks have kept the system afloat.

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The Fed is acting like they think there's a major recession on the way.

When the Fed cuts rates by half a point and the market crashes in response to it, you know there is something really bad coming.

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The Fed is also extending repo "repurchase" loans for weeks instead of overnight. This is frankly alarming, suggesting there is no liquidity in the market.

What we are seeing unfold now is a massive repricing of every commodity in the world. And we just saw US Treasury notes sold at negative interest rates for the first time in history.

This indicates we are headed for a massive deflationary spiral. Why would anybody EVER buy an investment that is guaranteed to LOSE money? Only because next week's investment opportunity guarantees you lose MORE than this week's

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Prediction
1) Bottom: 16240
2) Bottom Date:  6/19/2020
3) Dec 31 2020 Dow: 19400

Good call.  This is consistent with the Goldman Sachs forecast which was released this weekend that the Market may see an additional 20% decrease.  That said, after the market took a dive on Monday, I expected a slight bounce on Tuesday (which happened) and rebalanced my 401k from 40% mix of bonds and money market to 94% (taking effect after Tuesday's market close).  I figured out how to shift funds frequently without being cited for excessive trading. In any event, I'll likely go Large Cap when we bottom out, hoping to break even at 25,000 and profit off of any Dow increases above that.

I was just in Puerto Rico as they issued a total lockdown which restricted the population to only go outside to get take-out food, grocery shopping, and go to the pharmacy.  Beaches were closed as well as everything else.  If we go that route we may get down below 16,000 and a 20%+ unemployment/furlogh rate (consistent with Senate discussions that were leaked by Bloomberg news).   Absent of any breaking vaccine and cure, this restricted business & social life could very well run through Q2.

Also, the referenced to Dow @ 25,000 also applies to NASDAQ and S&P500  equivalents based on their market price but the Dow is much more common to reference in conjunction with the current market.  Large caps actually swing more in conjunction with NASDAQ and S&P500.

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Prediction
1) Bottom: 16240
2) Bottom Date:  6/19/2020
3) Dec 31 2020 Dow: 19400

Good call.  This is consistent with the Goldman Sachs forecast which was released this weekend that the Market may see an additional 20% decrease.  That said, after the market took a dive on Monday, I expected a slight bounce on Tuesday (which happened) and rebalanced my 401k from 40% mix of bonds and money market to 94% (taking effect after Tuesday's market close).  I figured out how to shift funds frequently without being cited for excessive trading. In any event, I'll likely go Large Cap when we bottom out, hoping to break even at 25,000 and profit off of any Dow increases above that.

I was just in Puerto Rico as they issued a total lockdown which restricted the population to only go outside to get take-out food, grocery shopping, and go to the pharmacy.  Beaches were closed as well as everything else.  If we go that route we may get down below 16,000 and a 20%+ unemployment rate (consistent with Senate discussions that were leaked by Bloomberg news).   Absent of any breaking vaccine and cure, this restricted business & social life could very well run through Q2.

Also, the referenced to Dow @ 25,000 also applies to NASDAQ and S&P500  equivalents based on their market price but the Dow is much more common to reference in conjunction with the current market.  Large caps actually swing more in conjunction with NASDAQ and S&P500.

I cashed out my main investment account when the market was around 24K and plan to invest that in a couple rental properties that will give me a better and more stable return than the market. I left my work 401k put as it is, even though it is taking a beating my bi-weekly contribution with employer match is picking up additional shares at a massive sale, so it will balance itself out in the long run (hopefully).

Not that COVID-19 isn't "serious", but this has been eye opening on what would happen if something worse came along.

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I started easing back in slowly.  I bought some Micro$oft and Amazon stocks (I rarely buy individual stocks but the price looks right to me).  I also "nibbled in" on a dividend ETF that is fairly diversified.  It appears right now that the market is trying to establish a bottom.  Could it or will it go lower?  Possibly.  However, over the long term I feel like these few investments that I've made will pay off.  I am roughly 10% invested right now with 90% in cash.

I am keeping a close eye on the airlines and specifically Boeing.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

I started easing back in slowly.  I bought some Micro$oft and Amazon stocks (I rarely buy individual stocks but the price looks right to me).  I also "nibbled in" on a dividend ETF that is fairly diversified.  It appears right now that the market is trying to establish a bottom.  Could it or will it go lower?  Possibly.  However, over the long term I feel like these few investments that I've made will pay off.  I am roughly 10% invested right now with 90% in cash.

I am keeping a close eye on the airlines and specifically Boeing.

It's going much lower. Within the next 2 weeks, all non-essential stores will be shut down.

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Y'all know you can sell short too right?

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I started easing back in slowly.  I bought some Micro$oft and Amazon stocks (I rarely buy individual stocks but the price looks right to me).  I also "nibbled in" on a dividend ETF that is fairly diversified.  It appears right now that the market is trying to establish a bottom.  Could it or will it go lower?  Possibly.  However, over the long term I feel like these few investments that I've made will pay off.  I am roughly 10% invested right now with 90% in cash.

I am keeping a close eye on the airlines and specifically Boeing.

It's going much lower. Within the next 2 weeks, all non-essential stores will be shut down.

I don't know that it's going to go much lower.  While there is still quite a bit of volatility in the market we aren't seeing the huge wild swings one way or the other.  If we aren't at the bottom right now we are close.  Barring anything major happening over the weekend I would guess that we might see a bit of a move towards the upside next week.  Just don't expect any major 1000 point swings upward.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

The market took a major hit today, but don't expect it to last long.  Smart investors are buying at wholesale prices.  Look for a move to the positive by the end of the week.  In the meantime take profits where you can and stand by.  I think the market is rattled not only by the Corona virus, but also the thought that Bernie Sanders is the leading democrat nominee.  Think about the possibility of the nation turning socialist.  Our capitalist economy would crumble with a socialist in The White House.

I suspect a turn-around after a few days.

It's going much lower. Within the next 2 weeks, all non-essential stores will be shut down.

I don't know that it's going to go much lower.  While there is still quite a bit of volatility in the market we aren't seeing the huge wild swings one way or the other.  If we aren't at the bottom right now we are close.  Barring anything major happening over the weekend I would guess that we might see a bit of a move towards the upside next week.  Just don't expect any major 1000 point swings upward.

You've been saying essentially the same thing for a month now. Maybe you can't predict the market.

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I think once Q1 and Q2 numbers are released depending on the timing of this madness we could see some more significant drops and volatility. Goldman is projecting negative 25% Q2 GDP and 2.5 million unemployed....

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I don't know that it's going to go much lower.  While there is still quite a bit of volatility in the market we aren't seeing the huge wild swings one way or the other.  If we aren't at the bottom right now we are close.  Barring anything major happening over the weekend I would guess that we might see a bit of a move towards the upside next week.  Just don't expect any major 1000 point swings upward.

You've been saying essentially the same thing for a month now. Maybe you can't predict the market.

Nobody can predict the market.  I just watch certain indicators and combine it with experience.  Am I always right?  Certainly not and never claimed to be.  I have also said numerous times that I am by no means a professional so my opinion is just that... my opinion.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

I don't expect a market turnaround until we see a virus turnaround. There are some hopeful signs, like possibly finding an effective treatment regimen, but the economic pain will continue until people get back to work and even then it will take time.

Other cracks in the financial system are widening, especially with regards to liquidity. I have an anecdotal item from another forum where a guy sold a stock in his Schwab 401k account and wanted to buy another stock, but Schwab kept 67% of his sale proceeds as "Cash on Hold" whatever that means. He is assuming they will release the remainder in 3 days when the trade settles. Anybody else seeing their broker hold funds like that?

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Low: 17,000

Date: May 1

End of year: 27,000

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I don't expect a market turnaround until we see a virus turnaround.  There are some hopeful signs, like possibly finding an effective treatment regimen, but the economic pain will continue until people get back to work and even then it will take time.

Other cracks in the financial system are widening, especially with regards to liquidity.  I have an anecdotal item from another forum where a guy sold a stock in his Schwab 401k account and wanted to buy another stock, but Schwab kept 67% of his sale proceeds as "Cash on Hold" whatever that means.  He is assuming they will release the remainder in 3 days when the trade settles.  Anybody else seeing their broker hold funds like that?

Not for 3 days

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I don't expect a market turnaround until we see a virus turnaround.  There are some hopeful signs, like possibly finding an effective treatment regimen, but the economic pain will continue until people get back to work and even then it will take time.

Other cracks in the financial system are widening, especially with regards to liquidity.  I have an anecdotal item from another forum where a guy sold a stock in his Schwab 401k account and wanted to buy another stock, but Schwab kept 67% of his sale proceeds as "Cash on Hold" whatever that means.  He is assuming they will release the remainder in 3 days when the trade settles.  Anybody else seeing their broker hold funds like that?

Trying to trade within a 401k account is different than trading in a brokerage account.  It could be me but I have never seen the ability to purchase individual stocks within a 401k other than your company's stock.  Most of the choices are usually mutual funds.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

You've been saying essentially the same thing for a month now. Maybe you can't predict the market.

Nobody can predict the market.  I just watch certain indicators and combine it with experience.  Am I always right?  Certainly not and never claimed to be.  I have also said numerous times that I am by no means a professional so my opinion is just that... my opinion.

That's kind of the point. "If we aren't at the bottom right now we are close" is a definitive statement is it not?



I suppose if you keep stating we're at the bottom every few days eventually you'll be right.

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I don't expect a market turnaround until we see a virus turnaround.  There are some hopeful signs, like possibly finding an effective treatment regimen, but the economic pain will continue until people get back to work and even then it will take time.

Other cracks in the financial system are widening, especially with regards to liquidity.  I have an anecdotal item from another forum where a guy sold a stock in his Schwab 401k account and wanted to buy another stock, but Schwab kept 67% of his sale proceeds as "Cash on Hold" whatever that means.  He is assuming they will release the remainder in 3 days when the trade settles.  Anybody else seeing their broker hold funds like that?

I trade with Chuck and bought pretty sizeably into a fund on 3/14, cashed out 9:30am on 3/17 and all funds were available within 10 minutes.

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Nobody can predict the market.  I just watch certain indicators and combine it with experience.  Am I always right?  Certainly not and never claimed to be.  I have also said numerous times that I am by no means a professional so my opinion is just that... my opinion.

That's kind of the point. "If we aren't at the bottom right now we are close" is a definitive statement is it not?



I suppose if you keep stating we're at the bottom every few days eventually you'll be right.

I don't recall ever saying anything about being near a bottom until about a week or so ago.  I haven't been "essentially saying the same thing for a month".  I also refused to give a number or a date for the bottom because it really is impossible to predict, especially given the circumstances at the time.

Sure my statement is definitive, but as I said before... it's just my opinion.  Take it or leave it.  It really doesn't matter to me.  I have stated numerous times that I am not a professional and to take my opinion/advice for what it is.  I have been trading/investing for over 20 years and have done very well.  Have I done the best?  Of course not.  Was this the best time to buy into Micro$oft?  Time will tell.  The indicators that I follow all point to the fall slowing and I suspect the turnaround will happen soon.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

JIB, I think the point is, this thread was meant for those who wanted to make a prediction. Yes, nobody can predict the market, the point was to see if you could even get close. We don't know how this will play out. Putting a number on it is one way of expressing your opinion about how YOU think it will play out, that's all.

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