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The Real Marty · 03-25-2020, 06:32 AM

(03-24-2020, 03:53 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:57 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: Under normal circumstances, I don't think a team should spend a high draft pick on a QB in two straight years. Reason being, I don't think you can tell if you have "the guy" until at least the middle of year 2. And during that time, you need to give him as many practice reps as possible, and he needs to start. Drafting a starting QB in back to back drafts handicaps both of them, because they would both have to be developed and evaluated, and there aren't enough practices for both of them and they can't both start regular season games. When we draft a QB to start, you have to focus all your resources on that guy.

In the case of the Jags, Minshew was arguably the best rookie QB last year. That's why I would put our focus on him this year, and not draft another starter. If he doesn't work out this year, look for a new one next year. We have to be a little bit disciplined about this. This isn't the last time we'll be able to draft a QB. There will be more candidates next year.

(Emphasis added)

Though in my original post, I discuss taking QB early this year and possibly next year, in the most immediate context, I'm talking about this year. Remember, we don't know how the draft position think will pan out next year. Even if Trevor Lawrence and J. Fields have great years, declare themselves draft eligible, and are the top two signal callers, we don't know whether we'll be in position to draft either of them with or without having to trade up to get them. This leaves us with this year. As of this year, we haven't taken a QB high in the past two seasons.

You continue with the imminently fair observation that it can take a while to know what you have in a player at that position. But if Minshew is still an unknown (at least not fully known) quantity, why would you consider changing your draft priorities to accommodate him? If an independent objective analysis of the available talent on the boars shows the best player is on defense, why would you draft a weapon for Minshew? (I know exactly why and I an fairly certain those of you reading know why too, but I'd like to see the reasoning.)

But to continue on this theme, this carries into the last emphasized point.

For those of you arguing the draft's focus should be on helping Minshew, do you now assert that any pick other than a WR or LT (those positions that might be of most direct help to Minshew which appear to be worth at or near that draft spot) at 9 would be a mistake?

Okay, you've raised several points, so here is my response.

Talking about this year- I know we didn't spend a high draft pick on Minshew, but from where we are now, with him arguably being one of the best, if not the best, rookie QB of 2019, we're in the same position as if we had spent a high draft pick on a QB, in fact we're in a better position, because added to that is the fact that it looks like the pick might work out and we might have a QB who was actually worthy of a high draft pick. So it's as if we exercised a high draft pick on a QB AND the player panned out for us, which is not a given for any highly drafted QB. A lot of them bust.

Minshew did as well as the #1 overall pick and offensive rookie of the year, Kyler Murray.  So we might as well assume that we spent a top five pick on Minshew and he was worth it. So, since we are now in the position we would have been in if we had spent a top 5 pick on Minshew and he had panned out as worth it, why in the world would we do it again a year later?

Your next point- if the best player available on the board when it's our turn to pick is a defensive player, why would we draft a weapon for Minshew instead? I don't think I ever said I would. I would do what's best for the team. I'm sure we'll pick players on both sides of the ball.

But here's an important point- if we package the 9th and 20th picks to move up to, for example, 5th, and pick, for example, Tua, we would be giving up the 9th and 20th picks. I don't think it would be wise to give up, say, Derrick Brown and Krystian Fulton, or, say, the best LT and a really good WR, in order to "give Minshew competition." I don't think our priority should be giving our starting QB some competition. I think our priority should be to build our team while we see if last year's arguably best rookie QB can continue to develop.

Your posted opinion seems to be based on the assumption that this is our last best opportunity to get a QB in the draft. That is obviously not the case. This is not the kind of team that will go 8-8 if Minshew fails. We're not that good.  If Minshew fails, we could be 4-12. And add the Rams' pick (and that 2021 pick will most likely be a lot better than this year's 20th overall pick), and we have plenty of ammo to move up and get a QB in 2021. If Minshew fails, we could wind up with the 5th and 12th picks in the draft. If Minshew fails, we would probably be in a better draft position next year than we are this year. If Minshew fails, we'll not only have better picks to use next year, we'll also have a better team to put around the next guy.

So, the two hypotheticals - that Minshew fails AND we lose our chance to get a QB - those are incompatible events.

I wonder if you and some others are suffering from what could be called "6th round bias." If we had drafted him 5th overall last year, and he had had the exact same season as the one he had, would you still be wanting to draft another one this year?

For me, I'm not saying Minshew is definitely the guy, but as long as there is a chance that we have our guy, we should not waste valuable draft picks on another one who could just as easily bust. Minshew is much more of a known quantity than any prospect in the draft this year other than Joe Burrow, and we can't get Joe Burrow.

So all the above is why I say no to using a high pick on a QB this year. If you think last year's rookie has a chance of being the guy, then you build the team while you find out.