(03-25-2020, 06:32 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: (03-24-2020, 03:53 PM)Bullseye Wrote: (Emphasis added)
Though in my original post, I discuss taking QB early this year and possibly next year, in the most immediate context, I'm talking about this year. Remember, we don't know how the draft position think will pan out next year. Even if Trevor Lawrence and J. Fields have great years, declare themselves draft eligible, and are the top two signal callers, we don't know whether we'll be in position to draft either of them with or without having to trade up to get them. This leaves us with this year. As of this year, we haven't taken a QB high in the past two seasons.
You continue with the imminently fair observation that it can take a while to know what you have in a player at that position. But if Minshew is still an unknown (at least not fully known) quantity, why would you consider changing your draft priorities to accommodate him? If an independent objective analysis of the available talent on the boars shows the best player is on defense, why would you draft a weapon for Minshew? (I know exactly why and I an fairly certain those of you reading know why too, but I'd like to see the reasoning.)
But to continue on this theme, this carries into the last emphasized point.
For those of you arguing the draft's focus should be on helping Minshew, do you now assert that any pick other than a WR or LT (those positions that might be of most direct help to Minshew which appear to be worth at or near that draft spot) at 9 would be a mistake?
Okay, you've raised several points, so here is my response.
1. Talking about this year- I know we didn't spend a high draft pick on Minshew, but from where we are now, with him arguably being one of the best, if not the best, rookie QB of 2019, we're in the same position as if we had spent a high draft pick on a QB, in fact we're in a better position, because added to that is the fact that it looks like the pick might work out and we might have a QB who was actually worthy of a high draft pick. So it's as if we exercised a high draft pick on a QB AND the player panned out for us, which is not a given for any highly drafted QB. A lot of them bust.
Minshew did as well as the #1 overall pick and offensive rookie of the year, Kyler Murray. So we might as well assume that we spent a top five pick on Minshew and he was worth it. So, since we are now in the position we would have been in if we had spent a top 5 pick on Minshew and he had panned out as worth it, why in the world would we do it again a year later?
2. Your next point- if the best player available on the board when it's our turn to pick is a defensive player, why would we draft a weapon for Minshew instead? I don't think I ever said I would. I would do what's best for the team. I'm sure we'll pick players on both sides of the ball.
But here's an important point- if we package the 9th and 20th picks to move up to, for example, 5th, and pick, for example, Tua, we would be giving up the 9th and 20th picks. I don't think it would be wise to give up, say, Derrick Brown and Krystian Fulton, or, say, the best LT and a really good WR, in order to "give Minshew competition." I don't think our priority should be giving our starting QB some competition. I think our priority should be to build our team while we see if last year's arguably best rookie QB can continue to develop.
3. Your posted opinion seems to be based on the assumption that this is our last best opportunity to get a QB in the draft. That is obviously not the case. This is not the kind of team that will go 8-8 if Minshew fails. We're not that good. If Minshew fails, we could be 4-12. And add the Rams' pick (and that 2021 pick will most likely be a lot better than this year's 20th overall pick), and we have plenty of ammo to move up and get a QB in 2021. If Minshew fails, we could wind up with the 5th and 12th picks in the draft. If Minshew fails, we would probably be in a better draft position next year than we are this year. If Minshew fails, we'll not only have better picks to use next year, we'll also have a better team to put around the next guy.
So, the two hypotheticals - that Minshew fails AND we lose our chance to get a QB - those are incompatible events.
4. I wonder if you and some others are suffering from what could be called "6th round bias." If we had drafted him 5th overall last year, and he had had the exact same season as the one he had, would you still be wanting to draft another one this year?
For me, I'm not saying Minshew is definitely the guy, but as long as there is a chance that we have our guy, we should not waste valuable draft picks on another one who could just as easily bust. Minshew is much more of a known quantity than any prospect in the draft this year other than Joe Burrow, and we can't get Joe Burrow.
So all the above is why I say no to using a high pick on a QB this year. If you think last year's rookie has a chance of being the guy, then you build the team while you find out.
(Numbering added.)
1. Agreed completely he played well enough last year to earn some benefit of the doubt.
2. Not trying to put words in your mouth or deliberately misrepresent you, but that seems kinda implicit when it comes to placing the draft "focus" on putting weapons around Minshew.
3. Not necessarily. Your premise behind this statement assumes several things:
- There will be a draft next year in no way impacted by the current coronavirus outbreak.
- That if Minshew fails, we wiill automatically be in a position to get a QB.
Neither are guaranteed propositions
- That if Marrone/Caldwell were somehow replaced, his non interimsuccessor wouldn't have a different assessment of Minshew
If the season and subsequent seasons proceed as normal, then this portion of your argument has merit. Minshew plays and either shows enough to keep him or to keep looking for the guy. But Heaven forbid this season get cancelled. Draft order is determined by games played. If there are no games played what then? Do they revert to this year's order? Ifo so, Cincy has the top pick and we are back at 9. Even though they may be more willing to trade it away if they already have Burrow, they may only be marginally more willing to let him go at a substantially lower price than they would let go of Burrow this year. By this time next year, barring something unforseen, we'll have at least FIVE (5) picks fewer with which to negotiate from the 2022 draft (standard 7 pick draft allotment minus extra picks in 1st, 4th 5h and 6th rounds). Remember, it took Kansas City FIFTY (50) years to go from Len Dawson (their first franchise QB) to Patrick Mahomes, their next franchise QB. They don't exactly grow on trees, and when they do appear, you have to be in a position to get him.
Regarding Minshew's potential failures,, there is varying degrees of failure. Suppose Minshew starts off hot then crashes and burns and we finish 5-11. Based upon this year's draft order, that would put us around 5th or 6th. While that is decent draft position, if we were interested in Lawrence or perhaps Fields, we'd likely be out of the running without a substantial trade up (without the extra picks we could use), and whichever team has the top pick likely won't be inclined to deal down.
The last bullet point is pretty mich self explanatory.
While we indeed could still land our desired QB in 2021 if Minshew fails, there is a lot that makes that less likely.
4. That is fair speculation, one I do not completely discount. While his 6th round status did not preclude him from playing as well as he did (it certainly didn't hurt Brady's career at all), part of my argument hinges on the fact taking a QB high this year would not violate the unwritten rule about taking QBs in the first round in successive years because Minshew was a 6th rounder. That aside, there is still the possible remainder of lingering doubt as to why/how Minshew lasted that long in the first place. I mean this IS the website where #becausejaguars originated, is it not? Getting a franchise QB in he 6th round doesn't happen for us, does it? I'm no mind reader, but I submit underneath all of the excitement surrounding Minshew mania here among Jaguars fans, there is an undercurrent of waiting to see when and how the wheels fall off of this thing.
To be clear, I am not DOWN on Minshew.
His rookie year was promising and is enough to cause reasonable and knowledgeable people (on the team and on the boards) to put faith in him. Given the weaknesses on this team and how the board seems likely to fall, there is justification for loading up on offense in this draft. But given our draft position the availability of QB a broad consensus of observers feel could be of first round caliber, the overwhelming depth of the WR position in this draft, and our abundance of draft capital we have over the next twoyears, if there is a time to over saturate the position in our quest to find that franchise signal caller, it's now.
Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!
