You CAN verify it by the play by play account of the game.  That is actually what QBR does... looks at each play individually within the context of the game, instead of just the sums or averages like Passer Rating does.  You can verify more with QBR than Passer Rating.  QBR takes into account down and distance, area of the field, score, time, situation, yards after catch, opponent, etc. for each play.  All the things on the long form of the stat sheet instead of reducing metrics to sums and averages.  More information provides better context and a more realistic assessment.  Of course, watching the game and providing a coach's evaluation is better... but who has time for that with all 32 teams?  Next best thing is QBR to get a real comparison.

Your other comment about one TD being 28 yards and one being 9 is too simplistic.  What if Robinson had that same 1 yard dump off pass at the 50 yard line (that you or I could have throw to him) and he took it 50 yards to the house?  With your logic, that would be twice as good a play by Minshew as the 28 yard dime he threw to Conley... how does that make sense?  It doesn't.  A shovel pass in the red zone that goes to the house is basically a handoff by the QB, but he gets credit for a TD pass using Passer Rating, whereas QBR accounts for that.  Reductionist methods attempt to take complex things and simplifying them; but in doing so, they lose context and accuracy.  The QBR gives a version closer to a coach's grade, while Passer Rating just looks at the sum of completions, attempts, yards, TD's and INT's without context.  Passer Rating is too reduced or simplified to be very accurate.

Bortles also threw 28 yard touchdown passes that Allen Robinson would have to stop and jump for.
Does QBR tell any difference between a touchdown pass like that and the one Minshew threw on Sunday?

Nope.  But neither does Passer Rating, nor Adjusted Net Yards per Passing Attempt (ANY/A).  To the best of my knowledge, we were debating QBR vs. Passer Rating vs. ANY/A.  I guess you realize that argument isn't going very well right now and you want to change the subject?

You're missing the point.  I said every stat has its limitations.  But if you have to pick one to evaluate QB play, QBR gives you the best information because it provides context that Passer Rating and ANY/A do not.

---

This is a results-oriented business.  There are no trophies or titles given for "moral victories" or for "winning the draft".  Our record with DC is 37-86.  6-10 is our 2nd best season in 8 years of Caldwell leadership.  These are the FACTS.

Hes got a lot of options ahead of him. He will go #1 whatever draft he is in so that's not as big a concern as it would for other players. I think he may wait to see who's getting the #1 pick and if it's a place he thinks can work. If not then have another year at Clemson. Hes holding the cards.

Yeah, but the chance of injury looms large. If you can go #1 overall in the current draft, it's hard to make a case for a gamble on another year.

Oh absolutely. Just look at Tua. This time last year people were saying Tank fir Tua, but even with a serious injury he only slid to #5. I think Lawrence us seen as an elite prospect that teams would still take high even if he had an injury.

But he does have that extra year as a fall back should he not like who has the #1 pick.

---

Bortles also threw 28 yard touchdown passes that Allen Robinson would have to stop and jump for.
Does QBR tell any difference between a touchdown pass like that and the one Minshew threw on Sunday?

Nope.  But neither does Passer Rating, nor Adjusted Net Yards per Passing Attempt (ANY/A).  To the best of my knowledge, we were debating QBR vs. Passer Rating vs. ANY/A.  I guess you realize that argument isn't going very well right now and you want to change the subject?

You're missing the point.  I said every stat has its limitations.  But if you have to pick one to evaluate QB play, QBR gives you the best information because it provides context that Passer Rating and ANY/A do not

Because you emphasized, twice, how difficult and beautiful that pass from Minshew was.  Why emphasize something if it doesn't matter to the point you're making?


I'm down with subjective grading, watch the play and decide for yourself if you should grade Bortles high for a long pass or grade Robinson high for chasing down an inaccurate duck. It's just an opinion, but it can be interesting.
I'm down with anything I can compute for myself with a simple play by play.  If you can do it off the stat line, even better.
What I'm not here for is a number I cant verify, that they're going to pass off as an objective fact.  That's nonsense, to me.  I'm not here for the computer saying, this play had a bigger impact on the outcome game than this other play, and you attributing that to the QB rather than fate.  The QB didn't know the computer readout before the snap.  The coach didn't know that before the play call.  What they did know is what the defense was showing, and which of their guys were looking tired. And the QB knows what the play call is, even though the QBR algorithm does not. If we are going to wait the value of a play based on something that happened before the play was made, it should be things that the person making the play would be aware of. Time remaining, sure. Score, sure. Down and distance, sure. But make it predictable.  Don't weight it on some statistical analysis based on the outcome of other, similar games.  But why bother trying to find and reward those "key plays"?  As I said, if the QB is playing the entire game, all that should come out in the wash anyways.

---

My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

Nope.  But neither does Passer Rating, nor Adjusted Net Yards per Passing Attempt (ANY/A).  To the best of my knowledge, we were debating QBR vs. Passer Rating vs. ANY/A.  I guess you realize that argument isn't going very well right now and you want to change the subject?

You're missing the point.  I said every stat has its limitations.  But if you have to pick one to evaluate QB play, QBR gives you the best information because it provides context that Passer Rating and ANY/A do not

Because you emphasized, twice, how difficult and beautiful that pass from Minshew was.  Why emphasize something if it doesn't matter to the point you're making?


I'm down with subjective grading, watch the play and decide for yourself if you should grade Bortles high for a long pass or grade Robinson high for chasing down an inaccurate duck. It's just an opinion, but it can be interesting.
I'm down with anything I can compute for myself with a simple play by play.  If you can do it off the stat line, even better.
What I'm not here for is a number I cant verify, that they're going to pass off as an objective fact.  That's nonsense, to me.  I'm not here for the computer saying, this play had a bigger impact on the outcome game than this other play, and you attributing that to the QB rather than fate.  The QB didn't know the computer readout before the snap.  The coach didn't know that before the play call.  What they did know is what the defense was showing, and which of their guys were looking tired. And the QB knows what the play call is, even though the QBR algorithm does not. If we are going to wait the value of a play based on something that happened before the play was made, it should be things that the person making the play would be aware of. Time remaining, sure. Score, sure. Down and distance, sure. But make it predictable.  Don't weight it on some statistical analysis based on the outcome of other, similar games.  But why bother trying to find and reward those "key plays"?  As I said, if the QB is playing the entire game, all that should come out in the wash anyways.

Again... you are missing the point.  By a mile.  QBR is NOT subjective analysis, it is objective.  Minshew's pass for the TD to Conley was 28 yards, no YAC.  For Robinson, it was 1 yard + 9 yards YAC.  That is the difference...the QB gets more credit for Conley's TD pass than Robinson's based on that.  QBR doesn't measure the "beauty" of the pass... it does measure where the ball was thrown to and the YAC to indirectly evaluate the distance of the pass and QB play.  If you want qualitative assessment, that is the coaches' grading sheet.  And I have no idea why you would mention the mindset of the QB or coach in their understanding of the QBR... what are you even talking about?  That's ridiculous. You clearly do not understand the point, or even the discussion about QBR vs. Passer Rating vs. ANY/A.  I have no idea what you're even talking about anymore dude... and neither do you.

---

This is a results-oriented business.  There are no trophies or titles given for "moral victories" or for "winning the draft".  Our record with DC is 37-86.  6-10 is our 2nd best season in 8 years of Caldwell leadership.  These are the FACTS.

Because you emphasized, twice, how difficult and beautiful that pass from Minshew was.  Why emphasize something if it doesn't matter to the point you're making?


I'm down with subjective grading, watch the play and decide for yourself if you should grade Bortles high for a long pass or grade Robinson high for chasing down an inaccurate duck. It's just an opinion, but it can be interesting.
I'm down with anything I can compute for myself with a simple play by play.  If you can do it off the stat line, even better.
What I'm not here for is a number I cant verify, that they're going to pass off as an objective fact.  That's nonsense, to me.  I'm not here for the computer saying, this play had a bigger impact on the outcome game than this other play, and you attributing that to the QB rather than fate.  The QB didn't know the computer readout before the snap.  The coach didn't know that before the play call.  What they did know is what the defense was showing, and which of their guys were looking tired. And the QB knows what the play call is, even though the QBR algorithm does not. If we are going to wait the value of a play based on something that happened before the play was made, it should be things that the person making the play would be aware of. Time remaining, sure. Score, sure. Down and distance, sure. But make it predictable.  Don't weight it on some statistical analysis based on the outcome of other, similar games.  But why bother trying to find and reward those "key plays"?  As I said, if the QB is playing the entire game, all that should come out in the wash anyways.

Again... you are missing the point.  By a mile.  QBR is NOT subjective analysis, it is objective.  Minshew's pass for the TD to Conley was 28 yards, no YAC.  For Robinson, it was 1 yard + 9 yards YAC.  That is the difference...the QB gets more credit for Conley's TD pass than Robinson's passed on that.  QBR doesn't measure the "beauty" of the pass... it does measure where the ball was thrown to and the YAC to indirectly evaluate the distance of the pass and QB play.  If you want qualitative assessment, that is the coaches' grading sheet.  And I have no idea why you would mention the mindset of the QB or coach in their understanding of the QBR... what are you even talking about?  That's ridiculous.  You clearly do not understand the point, or even the discussion about QBR vs. Passer Rating vs. ANY/A.  I have no idea what you're even talking about anymore dude... and neither do you.

Dude, no need to be hostile.
My point is, I don't like QBR because you can't verify it.
Here's an example:
Suppose at the end of the game, Byron Leftwich has a 105 qb rating.  But we watched the game.  We know he played poorly most of the game.  So we can get out our calculators and say things like, "If Jimmy Smith had dropped that one 4th down touchdown pass, Leftwich's rating would have been 74.". But with QBR you can't do that.  You'd have to call up ESPN and ask them, "can you tell me what Leftwich's grade would have been in this scenario?"
See the difference?
If you can't verify it or tweak it, it's not interesting. I guess it's interesting for the guys who have access to the secret sauce at ESPN, but not to me.

---

My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

Again... you are missing the point.  By a mile.  QBR is NOT subjective analysis, it is objective.  Minshew's pass for the TD to Conley was 28 yards, no YAC.  For Robinson, it was 1 yard + 9 yards YAC.  That is the difference...the QB gets more credit for Conley's TD pass than Robinson's passed on that.  QBR doesn't measure the "beauty" of the pass... it does measure where the ball was thrown to and the YAC to indirectly evaluate the distance of the pass and QB play.  If you want qualitative assessment, that is the coaches' grading sheet.  And I have no idea why you would mention the mindset of the QB or coach in their understanding of the QBR... what are you even talking about?  That's ridiculous.  You clearly do not understand the point, or even the discussion about QBR vs. Passer Rating vs. ANY/A.  I have no idea what you're even talking about anymore dude... and neither do you.

Dude, no need to be hostile.
My point is, I don't like QBR because you can't verify it.
Here's an example:
Suppose at the end of the game, Byron Leftwich has a 105 qb rating.  But we watched the game.  We know he played poorly most of the game.  So we can get out our calculators and say things like, "If Jimmy Smith had dropped that one 4th down touchdown pass, Leftwich's rating would have been 74.". But with QBR you can't do that.  You'd have to call up ESPN and ask them, "can you tell me what Leftwich's grade would have been in this scenario?"
See the difference?
If you can't verify it or tweak it, it's not interesting. I guess it's interesting for the guys who have access to the secret sauce at ESPN, but not to me.

Again, no stat is perfect.  You can "tweak" or interpret any stat given circumstances or alternative outcomes that didn't happen.  And dropped passes is actually part of the QBR calculation, so you don't need to do that with QBR.  You would for Passer Rating  or ANY/A.  So again... your point is moot.  

If you don't like QBR because its too complicated for you to understand... that's fine.  Or as you say, "because I can't verify it".  Cool.  But to say it is inferior to the metrics of Passer Rating or ANY/A that only take into account 4 or 5 measurements is just simple-minded.

---

This is a results-oriented business.  There are no trophies or titles given for "moral victories" or for "winning the draft".  Our record with DC is 37-86.  6-10 is our 2nd best season in 8 years of Caldwell leadership.  These are the FACTS.

When looking at the stats between Minshew and Burrow, they are nearly identical. Yes, Minshew has 1 year under his belt compared to Burrow. But that was in an offense that wasn't catered to him at all. Isn't Burrow suppose to be this big named QB everyone was so high on? I dont really see the Bengals being any better or any worse in any category with their team honestly and yet the stats nearly mimic each other and the records are the same.

I know there is many out there against it, but i would much rather build around Minshew this year and replace all the holes we have in our team than give up already. Sure, Lawrence could be the next great thing, but how great can anyone really be if everything around him is garbage? Build a foundation where a QB can actually succeed and maybe we get out of this mess this franchise has been in.

2017 obviously we looked good and we were a QB away, but thats long gone and past now. Restack up like we did then and see what we have a qb.

---

In Dougie I Trust!

Dude, no need to be hostile.
My point is, I don't like QBR because you can't verify it.
Here's an example:
Suppose at the end of the game, Byron Leftwich has a 105 qb rating.  But we watched the game.  We know he played poorly most of the game.  So we can get out our calculators and say things like, "If Jimmy Smith had dropped that one 4th down touchdown pass, Leftwich's rating would have been 74.". But with QBR you can't do that.  You'd have to call up ESPN and ask them, "can you tell me what Leftwich's grade would have been in this scenario?"
See the difference?
If you can't verify it or tweak it, it's not interesting. I guess it's interesting for the guys who have access to the secret sauce at ESPN, but not to me.

Again, no stat is perfect.  You can "tweak" or interpret any stat given circumstances or alternative outcomes that didn't happen.  And dropped passes is actually part of the QBR calculation, so you don't need to do that with QBR.  You would for Passer Rating  or ANY/A.  So again... your point is moot.  

If you don't like QBR because its too complicated for you to understand... that's fine.  Or as you say, "because I can't verify it".  Cool.  But to say it is inferior to the metrics of Passer Rating or ANY/A that only take into account 4 or 5 measurements is just simple-minded.

Dropped passes are part of the QBR calculation, but only if they actually happen.  You can't easily track how the number changes based on things that might have happened but didn't happen.  Unless you call ESPN and they give you access to their algorithm.  But you can consider any hypothetical you want with other metrics. That makes those other metrics more interesting for discussion, in my opinion.

---

My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

Again, no stat is perfect.  You can "tweak" or interpret any stat given circumstances or alternative outcomes that didn't happen.  And dropped passes is actually part of the QBR calculation, so you don't need to do that with QBR.  You would for Passer Rating  or ANY/A.  So again... your point is moot.  

If you don't like QBR because its too complicated for you to understand... that's fine.  Or as you say, "because I can't verify it".  Cool.  But to say it is inferior to the metrics of Passer Rating or ANY/A that only take into account 4 or 5 measurements is just simple-minded.

Dropped passes are part of the QBR calculation, but only if they actually happen.  You can't easily track how the number changes based on things that might have happened but didn't happen.  Unless you call ESPN and they give you access to their algorithm.  But you can consider any hypothetical you want with other metrics. That makes those other metrics more interesting for discussion, in my opinion.

OK.  I'm not sure why you'd be interested in hypothetical situations that didn't occur as opposed to things that did.  I could count how many times I was interested in recalculating QBR or Passer Rating based on things that never happened: ZERO. But to each their own.  Peace, brother.

---

This is a results-oriented business.  There are no trophies or titles given for "moral victories" or for "winning the draft".  Our record with DC is 37-86.  6-10 is our 2nd best season in 8 years of Caldwell leadership.  These are the FACTS.

When looking at the stats between Minshew and Burrow, they are nearly identical. Yes, Minshew has 1 year under his belt compared to Burrow. But that was in an offense that wasn't catered to him at all. Isn't Burrow suppose to be this big named QB everyone was so high on? I dont really see the Bengals being any better or any worse in any category with their team honestly and yet the stats nearly mimic each other and the records are the same.

I know there is many out there against it, but i would much rather build around Minshew this year and replace all the holes we have in our team than give up already. Sure, Lawrence could be the next great thing, but how great can anyone really be if everything around him is garbage? Build a foundation where a QB can actually succeed and maybe we get out of this mess this franchise has been in.

2017 obviously we looked good and we were a QB away, but thats long gone and past now. Restack up like we did then and see what we have a qb.

This is precisely why you cannot rely purely on stats.  Burrow is thriving and the Bengals are competitive.  Minshew is struggling and the Jags are getting blown out.  The talent around each QB is relatively equal.

---

When looking at the stats between Minshew and Burrow, they are nearly identical. Yes, Minshew has 1 year under his belt compared to Burrow. But that was in an offense that wasn't catered to him at all. Isn't Burrow suppose to be this big named QB everyone was so high on? I dont really see the Bengals being any better or any worse in any category with their team honestly and yet the stats nearly mimic each other and the records are the same.

I know there is many out there against it, but i would much rather build around Minshew this year and replace all the holes we have in our team than give up already. Sure, Lawrence could be the next great thing, but how great can anyone really be if everything around him is garbage? Build a foundation where a QB can actually succeed and maybe we get out of this mess this franchise has been in.

2017 obviously we looked good and we were a QB away, but thats long gone and past now. Restack up like we did then and see what we have a qb.

This is precisely why you cannot rely purely on stats.  Burrow is thriving and the Bengals are competitive.  Minshew is struggling and the Jags are getting blown out.  The talent around each QB is relatively equal.

100% agree.   Stats should only be a supplemental evaluation to the "eye test" or coaches' grading scale.  When I watch Burrow play, I see a future star in this League; when I watch Minshew, I see a capable back-up / journeyman. The stats are similar, but the talent level is very different between the QB's. Arm strength, pocket presence, poise, athleticism, etc., all favor Burrow.

---

This is a results-oriented business.  There are no trophies or titles given for "moral victories" or for "winning the draft".  Our record with DC is 37-86.  6-10 is our 2nd best season in 8 years of Caldwell leadership.  These are the FACTS.

Yes, I was bullish on Minshew, but I have to agree. Substantial talent limitations regarding our strength are Very difficult to overcome. We have not seen any signs as of yet that he has been able to do so. Hopefully the second half of the season will be a totally different story, but basically saying, we have to assume we are drafting for a franchise quarterback next year.

---

This is precisely why you cannot rely purely on stats.  Burrow is thriving and the Bengals are competitive.  Minshew is struggling and the Jags are getting blown out.  The talent around each QB is relatively equal.

100% agree.   Stats should only be a supplemental evaluation to the "eye test" or coaches' grading scale.  When I watch Burrow play, I see a future star in this League; when I watch Minshew, I see a capable back-up / journeyman.  The stats are similar, but the talent level is very different between the QB's.  Arm strength, pocket presence, poise, athleticism, etc., all favor Burrow.

An in addition too, confidence. Burrows gets sacked and gets right back up like nothing happened. Minshew gets sacked and he starts seeing ghosts.

---

Yes, I was bullish on Minshew, but I have to agree. Substantial talent limitations regarding our strength are Very difficult to overcome. We have not seen any signs as of yet that he has been able to do so. Hopefully the second half of the season will be a totally different story, but basically saying, we have to assume we are drafting for a franchise quarterback next year.

I don’t see a QB progressing from last year. I see a QB regressing. He plays just like he played in London last year.

---

All I know is that while watching the young guns Gardner is playing against, I keep finding myself thinking, "Minshew can't do that." I love our Minshew, and it's not his fault, but those other dudes are physically gifted in ways that Gardner cannot compete with.

---

Dropped passes are part of the QBR calculation, but only if they actually happen.  You can't easily track how the number changes based on things that might have happened but didn't happen.  Unless you call ESPN and they give you access to their algorithm.  But you can consider any hypothetical you want with other metrics. That makes those other metrics more interesting for discussion, in my opinion.

OK.  I'm not sure why you'd be interested in hypothetical situations that didn't occur as opposed to things that did.  I could count how many times I was interested in recalculating QBR or Passer Rating based on things that never happened:  ZERO.  But to each their own.  Peace, brother.

The questions like, "Is the team holding Minshew back, or is Minshew holding the team back?". You can't always get a definitive answer, but constructing hypotheticals helps.

---

My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

All I know is that while watching the young guns Gardner is playing against, I keep finding myself thinking, "Minshew can't do that."  I love our Minshew, and it's not his fault, but those other dudes are physically gifted in ways that Gardner cannot compete with.

This is true. However, with a competent organization, quarterbacks and players like Gardener can and do thrive. For example, a team like New England could be a great fit for him. 

The Jaguars organization is a joke. Everybody regresses here and excels elsewhere. If that’s not a testament to the ineptitude of our building, then I don’t know what is. We have to improve, and that starts with ownership decisions. Khan needs to get his [BLEEP] together quick, or he will lose all of his fan support. Some say that that’s the the plan. Well, if that’s the case, he better learn how to break old habits when/if he moves the team, or they will fail just like they have here.

---

OK.  I'm not sure why you'd be interested in hypothetical situations that didn't occur as opposed to things that did.  I could count how many times I was interested in recalculating QBR or Passer Rating based on things that never happened:  ZERO.  But to each their own.  Peace, brother.

The questions like, "Is the team holding Minshew back, or is Minshew holding the team back?". You can't always get a definitive answer, but constructing hypotheticals helps.

C'mon dude...when have you EVER recalculated Minshew's Passer Rating based on a dropped pass?!?!?!  LMAO.  You know you haven't... you are just grasping for straws with your weak argument. Time to let it go brother...

---

This is a results-oriented business.  There are no trophies or titles given for "moral victories" or for "winning the draft".  Our record with DC is 37-86.  6-10 is our 2nd best season in 8 years of Caldwell leadership.  These are the FACTS.

Pro sports is a game of cat and mouse. You show skills, opposition adjusts, you adjust to that, and so on. Minshew came out guns blazing last year with a very eccentric game that was based on flair, moxie, and a very unique ability to hit a spot downfield. He abused teams repeatedly with that deep sideline back shoulder throw that basically no one else throws, I can't remember anyone doing it regularly like Minshew did last year since Rodgers and Jordy Nelson. Minshew thrived while teams were still formulating the scouting report against Minshew's idiosyncratic quirks.

After 3-4 weeks though, the book was written and the Saints showed that if you just take away the deep timing routes Minshew doesn't have the requisite arm talent to beat you with an orthodox game. We're still waiting for Minshew to show that he has the skills to adjust back.

---

OK.  I'm not sure why you'd be interested in hypothetical situations that didn't occur as opposed to things that did.  I could count how many times I was interested in recalculating QBR or Passer Rating based on things that never happened:  ZERO.  But to each their own.  Peace, brother.

The questions like, "Is the team holding Minshew back, or is Minshew holding the team back?". You can't always get a definitive answer, but constructing hypotheticals helps.

I think at this point there are so many points of failure no one is holding anyone back. Minshew is certainly not the worst part of this team, but he’s not the best either- and his position is the only one that really requires a first round pick to address. If you look at the defense, I think we have drafted some talented folks over the last couple years, but the scheme and coaching is working against them. We can add some quality pickups with our second first and our 2nd round picks easily.

---

Pro sports is a game of cat and mouse. You show skills, opposition adjusts, you adjust to that, and so on. Minshew came out guns blazing last year with a very eccentric game that was based on flair, moxie, and a very unique ability to hit a spot downfield. He abused teams repeatedly with that deep sideline back shoulder throw that basically no one else throws, I can't remember anyone doing it regularly like Minshew did last year since Rodgers and Jordy Nelson. Minshew thrived while teams were still formulating the scouting report against Minshew's idiosyncratic quirks.

After 3-4 weeks though, the book was written and the Saints showed that if you just take away the deep timing routes Minshew doesn't have the requisite arm talent to beat you with an orthodox game. We're still waiting for Minshew to show that he has the skills to adjust back.

Yeah Saints game was brutal- and Texans road with it in London. London is probably the worst game I ever seen Minshew play. 

It was interesting last year when Brokenette was out the last couple weeks and Minshew looked good again. I have hypothesized that Minshew felt more comfortable when our season was quite over. This year is a prove it year and I think he’s back out of his comfort zone again.

---