(11-16-2020, 12:35 AM)KodiakJag Wrote:

(11-15-2020, 10:43 PM)navyjagfan Wrote: Jags will win the last game of the season, screwing themselves out of Justin Fields.

If the last game of the season is the only other game we win, who do you see beating us out for the 2nd pick?

- Bengals will finish at 2-13-1 at the worst
- Texans finish ahead of us even if they lose out and go 2-14 due to H2H record against us
- Chargers also beat us thx to H2H record with us
- Looking like the entire NFC East will finish with 3-6 wins each.

We should have the 2nd pick locked in if we keep the losses coming until we play the Colts again.

For the draft, the tie breaker isn't head to head.  It's strength of schedule.  It's true that we have a decent chance of keeping the second pick despite another win, but it's far from a lock.  There's currently four other teams with 2 wins and no ties.  This is how I see it:

- Chargers will likely beat the Jets which will give them at least three wins.
- The Texans currently have a tougher strength of schedule than the Jaguars, so we would pick ahead of them with the same record, but the SOS could easily change between now and the end of the season.  However, I think the Texans are likely to find another win somewhere.
- Dallas and Washington play each other, so both can't come out with a win in that game.  The loser of that game is probably the biggest threat, but they could still win a game somewhere else.  Both have a couple of relatively easy games remaining on the schedule.  With a tied record, we would likely be drafting after those teams because of our SOS.

If we win another game, our chances of getting the first overall pick drops considerably.  Right now, it's still possible the Jets win a game and the Jaguars would pick ahead of them because of an easier strength of schedule.

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