Let me preface by saying I know how patently ridiculous the question sounds coming from a fan of a team that finished the season losing 15 straight games.
I get it. Even if the division has vulnerabilities, it's a dubious proposition to suggest the Jaguars will be able to exploit them.
Nevertheless, I'm left to wonder if the division is potentially for the taking next year.
Why would I ask?
Starting from the bottom up:
The Jaguars will likely start a new coach with a rookie QB, a bunch of draft picks and a lot of cap space with which to sign upgrades. But even assuming everything goes smoothly, if nothing else, the rookies will take some time to adjust to the league and the new schemes, and the coaches will need to learn the players to best employ them within the schemes.
Houston will start with a new coach, but perhaps without Deshaun Watson, and, as it stands now, no first or second round pick, either. Add that to the likely departure of J.J. Watt, and the departures of DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Stills, etc. The Texans have lost a bunch of talented players over the past year or so, and it will take a while to replenish that talent. It's way way way too early, but the Texans could be the division's last place team.
Thanks to some shrewd trades and sound drafting, the Colts are a team with strong fundamentals. They have one of the strongest defenses in the league, though I still don't see an abundance of splash players outside of Leonard and Buckner. They also have a strong interior OL and a sound running game. The question is what they will do at the most important position-QB? Phillip Rivers may or may not be brought back next year. If Rivers goes off into retirement, the Colts to go back to Jacoby Brissett, who was a so so at best replacement for Andrew Luck. They could make a play for former Eagles Starter Carson Wentz, who was coached by current Colts' head coach Frank Reich. Or they could draft a QB early in the next draft. Either way, they could experience a fall off at the position. But I have to think they will go with an experienced signal caller. They have a good defense and running game. I can't imagine them wasting them bringing along a rookie QB.
As for the tacks, with all of this happening above, at this point, they seem to be the odds on favorite to win the division. They have the least amount of change and holes coming out of this season. They still have that formidable backfield of Derrick Henry and Tannehill. AJ Brown is the best WR in the division, and their OL is solid. The only question here is if they can retain OC Arthur Smith. Defensively, they had a down year this year. They seem perpetually in search of an edge rusher and bringing in Clowney and Beasley did not help them at all.
Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!
