I would like to ask all you guys, who are dabbling in the market and posting here, a few simple questions.  

1)  What causes a stock to go up or down in the short term ( a day or a week, for example) ?  

2) What causes a stock to go up or down over the long term ( a few years) ?  

3) If a stock goes down, does that increase the odds that it will go up ?  

I have a strong impression that the ones of you who post the most in this thread don't know the answers to these questions.

1)  Short term is usually because of news.

2)  Fundamentals.

3)  Not really.

I seldom buy/hold securities in the short term.  I define "short term" as a year or less.  For that matter I seldom buy individual stocks.  I prefer ETF's and/or RIETS.  I did a short term deal with Boeing when the bottom fell out last year and rode it for a while.  I made a quick profit and got out fairly early.  However, I still hold an ETF that is weighted heavily by Boeing that I have had since 2016.  I have not only made gains from my buy/sell points on the price of the ETF, but it also has paid a decent dividend (nothing to write home about).

I still stand by my philosophy that "day trading" or "investing" short term is a fool's game and nothing more than gambling using the stock market as a casino.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

Just bought VFF and TCNNF @ 3:30pm.

I meant to pick up some CLNE as well but forgot.

House money -- no biggie. low risk high reward.

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1)  Short term is usually because of news.

This includes an extremely broad area but I agree.

news of regulation changes (e.g. weed stocks)
news of share buy back
news of additional shares being released to public
news of chinese government crackdown
news of election polls 
news of covid-19 / delta variant hospitalization rates

I also know that Short Term stocks are swayed at the industry level.  Example: Delta Variant breakout helps work from home stocks and hurts travel so there is no single answer to Mikey Mike's question.

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I would like to ask all you guys, who are dabbling in the market and posting here, a few simple questions.  

1)  What causes a stock to go up or down in the short term ( a day or a week, for example) ?  

2) What causes a stock to go up or down over the long term ( a few years) ?  

3) If a stock goes down, does that increase the odds that it will go up ?  

I have a strong impression that the ones of you who post the most in this thread don't know the answers to these questions.

1. News, FUD
2. Expectation / sentiment
3. No

What isn't a factor in share price - fundamentals, and it hasn't been since the early 1980's.

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Just bought VFF and TCNNF @ 3:30pm.  

I meant to pick up some CLNE as well but forgot.

House money -- no biggie.  low risk high reward.

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1)  Short term is usually because of news.

This includes an extremely broad area but I agree.

news of regulation changes (e.g. weed stocks)
news of share buy back
news of additional shares being released to public
news of chinese government crackdown
news of election polls 
news of covid-19 / delta variant hospitalization rates

I also know that Short Term stocks are swayed at the industry level.  Example: Delta Variant breakout helps work from home stocks and hurts travel so there is no single answer to Mikey Mike's question.

Kind of.

I did a short-term trade that I never intended to be AS short of a term a while back.  In one of my rare instances of buying an individual stock, I happened to buy Smith and Wesson on or around June 5th of 2016.  June 11 2016 is when the shooting happened at the Pulse night club.  The stock soared in the next week or so and I cashed out before it came back down to earth.

Looking back now, I was extremely lucky.  I didn't look as closely at the fundamentals of a company, I was trading on "gut instinct" and "what I thought" rather than looking at the data.  I made a little bit of money on that trade, but it also taught me an important lesson.  NEVER buy a stock because you "like" the company for personal reasons.  ALWAYS review the data.  Smith and Wesson has actually performed poorly since that happened.

In my "unprofessional" opinion CCL has been and still is a bad buy.  It's going to take them a few years to start having positive cash flow.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

I would like to ask all you guys, who are dabbling in the market and posting here, a few simple questions.  

1)  What causes a stock to go up or down in the short term ( a day or a week, for example) ?  

2) What causes a stock to go up or down over the long term ( a few years) ?  

3) If a stock goes down, does that increase the odds that it will go up ?  

I have a strong impression that the ones of you who post the most in this thread don't know the answers to these questions.

1)  Short term is usually because of news.

2)  Fundamentals.

3)  Not really.

I seldom buy/hold securities in the short term.  I define "short term" as a year or less.  For that matter I seldom buy individual stocks.  I prefer ETF's and/or RIETS.  I did a short term deal with Boeing when the bottom fell out last year and rode it for a while.  I made a quick profit and got out fairly early.  However, I still hold an ETF that is weighted heavily by Boeing that I have had since 2016.  I have not only made gains from my buy/sell points on the price of the ETF, but it also has paid a decent dividend (nothing to write home about).

I still stand by my philosophy that "day trading" or "investing" short term is a fool's game and nothing more than gambling using the stock market as a casino.

You are correct.  From the responses, I would say a lot of the people who post most often in this thread don't know the answers to these incredibly basic questions.  But I knew you would have the correct answers.  Here is how I would put it: 

1)  What causes a stock to go up or down in the short term ( a day or a week, for example) ?  Unexpected events.  I saw a post where someone said they were going to buy Pfizer because their vaccine was about to get approved and they thought that would cause the stock to move up.  But everyone knew the vaccine was going to get approved.  So the stock did not move.  Things that are known and expected are already priced into the stock.   A successful launch for Blue Origin was expected.  So a successful launch is not going to move the stock.   The most common cause for short term movements is events, but the events must be unexpected.  

2) What causes a stock to go up or down over the long term ( a few years) ?  The business fundamentals.  Company results and future expectations.  "In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine.  In the long run, it's a weighing machine."  Warren Buffett.  Fundamentals always win out in the long run.  

3) If a stock goes down, does that increase the odds that it will go up ?  No.  Someone says, "this stock is at 13.  If it goes to 10, I'm buying more."  What they ignore is, what caused the stock to drop like that?  Answer: New facts that affect the value of the company.  Should we ignore those facts and just buy more?  That makes no sense.  Just because a stock goes down, that does not mean it's more likely to go up.  It usually means something unexpected happened that made the stock less attractive for a good reason.

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1)  Short term is usually because of news.

2)  Fundamentals.

3)  Not really.

I seldom buy/hold securities in the short term.  I define "short term" as a year or less.  For that matter I seldom buy individual stocks.  I prefer ETF's and/or RIETS.  I did a short term deal with Boeing when the bottom fell out last year and rode it for a while.  I made a quick profit and got out fairly early.  However, I still hold an ETF that is weighted heavily by Boeing that I have had since 2016.  I have not only made gains from my buy/sell points on the price of the ETF, but it also has paid a decent dividend (nothing to write home about).

I still stand by my philosophy that "day trading" or "investing" short term is a fool's game and nothing more than gambling using the stock market as a casino.

You are correct.  From the responses, I would say a lot of the people who post most often in this thread don't know the answers to these incredibly basic questions.  But I knew you would have the correct answers.  Here is how I would put it: 

1)  What causes a stock to go up or down in the short term ( a day or a week, for example) ?  Unexpected events.  I saw a post where someone said they were going to buy Pfizer because their vaccine was about to get approved and they thought that would cause the stock to move up.  But everyone knew the vaccine was going to get approved.  So the stock did not move.  Things that are known and expected are already priced into the stock.   A successful launch for Blue Origin was expected.  So a successful launch is not going to move the stock.   The most common cause for short term movements is events, but the events must be unexpected.  

2) What causes a stock to go up or down over the long term ( a few years) ?  The business fundamentals.  Company results and future expectations.  "In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine.  In the long run, it's a weighing machine."  Warren Buffett.  Fundamentals always win out in the long run.  

3) If a stock goes down, does that increase the odds that it will go up ?  No.  Someone says, "this stock is at 13.  If it goes to 10, I'm buying more."  What they ignore is, what caused the stock to drop like that?  Answer: New facts that affect the value of the company.  Should we ignore those facts and just buy more?  That makes no sense.  Just because a stock goes down, that does not mean it's more likely to go up.  It usually means something unexpected happened that made the stock less attractive for a good reason.

This is one area where you and I agree.  It's both amusing yet painful to watch people use the stock market as a casino.  Using news and "gut feeling" as a method of investing almost never turns out good.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

This is one area where you and I agree.  It's both amusing yet painful to watch people use the stock market as a casino.  Using news and "gut feeling" as a method of investing almost never turns out good.

Well said.  My gain is your pain !!

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This is one area where you and I agree.  It's both amusing yet painful to watch people use the stock market as a casino.  Using news and "gut feeling" as a method of investing almost never turns out good.

Well said.  My gain is your pain !!

Docusign was another gut feeling for me a couple years ago too. Gut feelings can take you far in life. Nothing wrong with staying parked in an index fund that will average you 6% either. Whatever floats the boat.

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Well said.  My gain is your pain !!

Docusign was another gut feeling for me a couple years ago too. Gut feelings can take you far in life. Nothing wrong with staying parked in an index fund that will average you 6% either. Whatever floats the boat.

I personally like to do a little bit of both.  Majority of my money is in index funds, but some "fun" money or whatever you want call it are in some individual stocks.

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Today is the day CCL hits 15 again.

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Will they close the market early today? Peloton up big. COVID panic porn at it's finest.

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Will they close the market early today? Peloton up big. COVID panic porn at it's finest.

Crazy.  I mean, doesn't everybody that ever even thought about owning a Peloton already have a Peloton.  It's not like everyone is going to order a 2nd overpriced bike.

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Will they close the market early today? Peloton up big. COVID panic porn at it's finest.

Crazy.  I mean, doesn't everybody that ever even thought about owning a Peloton already have a Peloton.  It's not like everyone is going to order a 2nd overpriced bike.

They are going to expand into other areas of home fitness. They have established themselves as the Tesla of home fitness. Even though there are a ton of other brands, they are the "sexy" ones.

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Crazy.  I mean, doesn't everybody that ever even thought about owning a Peloton already have a Peloton.  It's not like everyone is going to order a 2nd overpriced bike.

They are going to expand into other areas of home fitness. They have established themselves as the Tesla of home fitness. Even though there are a ton of other brands, they are the "sexy" ones.

Yeah, I wonder how they accomplished that feat?

Oh yeah...

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

They are going to expand into other areas of home fitness. They have established themselves as the Tesla of home fitness. Even though there are a ton of other brands, they are the "sexy" ones.

Yeah, I wonder how they accomplished that feat?

Oh yeah...

Once they recalled one of their treadmills because of a death... i invested.

Like I said.. consumer confidence.

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HIMS @8 is easy money…wish I had some dry powder to add more…20 eoy…shorted like hell too!

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Your beliefs become your thoughts,
Your thoughts become your words,
Your words become your actions,
Your actions become your habits,
Your habits become your values,
Your values become your destiny.

HIMS @8 is easy money…wish I had some dry powder to add more…20 eoy…shorted like hell too!

You better be right.  I just got in at $8.28.  No biggie on this though as it's just house money buying the dip.

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HIMS @8 is easy money…wish I had some dry powder to add more…20 eoy…shorted like hell too!

You better be right.  I just got in at $8.28.  No biggie on this though as it's just house money buying the dip.

Dang, it's up 3% ($450) since my buy.  It moves kind of slow since it's now a $8.50 stock (with very little trades on a per minute basis) but as long as it moves in the right direction, that's fine with me.

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You better be right.  I just got in at $8.28.  No biggie on this though as it's just house money buying the dip.

Dang, it's up 3% ($450) since my buy.  It moves kind of slow since it's now a $8.50 stock (with very little trades on a per minute basis) but as long as it moves in the right direction, that's fine with me.

It’s shorted, make sure you hold through earnings. Wait until that volume turns up…I just ripped 1400% off of CEMI. Easy Japanesey!!!

Also, loading up on SYRS and ATNF. They’re Bios though, Grand Salamis or a swing ana miss on the high fastball!

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Your beliefs become your thoughts,
Your thoughts become your words,
Your words become your actions,
Your actions become your habits,
Your habits become your values,
Your values become your destiny.

BITCOIN ON FIRE TODAY.  

Bought the equivalent of 1 bitcoin via GBTC at $30k and added another half equivalent a few weeks ago for a total of 1.5 Bitcoin.  It's actually an ETF that includes Doge and Ethereum which are all skyrocketing today.

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