Their stock is much cheaper to get into than FDX and has nearly 100% the dividend yield. It's no IPS, but give me UPS all day long.

Yep, FDX is getting crushed today (down 8.76% right now).  Peloton and Facebook getting hit today as well.

Maybe its because they can't figure out how to delivery packages right now. Fedex is terrible right now, they have to be losing a ton of money because they aren't meeting their contracted times. I've had multiple packages just sit in locations for days in the last month. They keep changing the delivery dates also and somehow don't know they can't deliver it until after the fact. UPS hasn't missed a beat other than maybe a late truck here and there but at latest they update immediately. USPS is better than Fedex right now.

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I did the right thing and did pretty good so far holding my "boring" investments through this latest volatility.  I may pare some earnings and profits going into the 4th quarter.  Knee-jerk reactions and trading on news is a fool's game.  I may move into some of the "safer" sectors of the market or may just hold cash for now.  I am happy with the dividends that I am earning which far exceeds what I would earn in a money market.

Contrary to past thinking, moving money to bonds is not really "safe" and isn't really (in my opinion) a very good move at this point.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

 If I was buying individual stocks I would pay attention to the fundamentals and stay far away from industries like cruise lines and/or hotels (pretty much anything hospitality related).  They are losing money.  I would also stay away from bitcoin.  There is no real value in those (in my opinion).

We disagree on everything so the fact that I double-downed on cruise lines and bitcoin this morning at 10am should be of no surprise.  If you look at all of the industries, most have exceeded their pre-covid stock prices.  The cruise lines are the very last industry to recover and many are still 25%-50% below their December 2019 price.  Cruise lines will recover and there is a really good change to recognize a 50%-100% profit on these investments so I'm in.   Another factor is many sectors are waiving covid testing if one is fully vaccinated.  If and when that happens to the cruise lines, it's going to boom like it has never seen in the past.  We will soon get to the point where the symptoms of covid are so minimal with vaccinated people that nobody will care as we currently see at sporting events.  I've never been on a cruise but I understand that those that have often are loyal to going annually.  As such there is a major pent up desire for a large population to get back on their cruises that increased prices won't deter them.  That industry is so profitable that they have been able to sustain ~ 2 years of non-sailing.   

Also, one needs to factor in that investors/traders often consist of the younger generation (these kids are making $100k out of college).  They don't think the same way we've been trained to think.  They want cheap stocks that come with some risk and a lot of reward.  With the price of cruise line stocks, I see little risk with a high level of reward.  Heck, I got in Carnival at $20 for the most part and it's only up to $25 right now.  Their average pre-covid share price was ~ $50-$55/share so even if it goes up to $40 that's still a 100% rate of return on the $20/share price and a 60% rate of return on its current price of $25/share.  It won't happen overnight but I can definitely see $40/share by December 2023.    Bring on the Boosters the Boomers are gonna cruise !!!!

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 If I was buying individual stocks I would pay attention to the fundamentals and stay far away from industries like cruise lines and/or hotels (pretty much anything hospitality related).  They are losing money.  I would also stay away from bitcoin.  There is no real value in those (in my opinion).

We disagree on everything so the fact that I double-downed on cruise lines and bitcoin this morning at 10am should be of no surprise.  If you look at all of the industries, most have exceeded their pre-covid stock prices.  The cruise lines are the very last industry to recover and many are still 25%-50% below their December 2019 price.  Cruise lines will recover and there is a really good change to recognize a 50%-100% profit on these investments so I'm in.   Another factor is many sectors are waiving covid testing if one is fully vaccinated.  If and when that happens to the cruise lines, it's going to boom like it has never seen in the past.  We will soon get to the point where the symptoms of covid are so minimal with vaccinated people that nobody will care as we currently see at sporting events.  I've never been on a cruise but I understand that those that have often are loyal to going annually.  As such there is a major pent up desire for a large population to get back on their cruises that increased prices won't deter them.  That industry is so profitable that they have been able to sustain ~ 2 years of non-sailing.   

Also, one needs to factor in that investors/traders often consist of the younger generation (these kids are making $100k out of college).  They don't think the same way we've been trained to think.  They want cheap stocks that come with some risk and a lot of reward.  With the price of cruise line stocks, I see little risk with a high level of reward.  Heck, I got in Carnival at $20 for the most part and it's only up to $25 right now.  Their average pre-covid share price was ~ $50-$55/share so even if it goes up to $40 that's still a 100% rate of return on the $20/share price and a 60% rate of return on its current price of $25/share.  It won't happen overnight but I can definitely see $40/share by December 2023.    Bring on the Boosters the Boomers are gonna cruise !!!!

You know I love me some cruise industry, but I think you are ignoring the impact of inflation under the Biden administration and how that will tighten entertainment dollars for the middle class which is the life blood of the cruise industry.

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We disagree on everything so the fact that I double-downed on cruise lines and bitcoin this morning at 10am should be of no surprise.  If you look at all of the industries, most have exceeded their pre-covid stock prices.  The cruise lines are the very last industry to recover and many are still 25%-50% below their December 2019 price.  Cruise lines will recover and there is a really good change to recognize a 50%-100% profit on these investments so I'm in.   Another factor is many sectors are waiving covid testing if one is fully vaccinated.  If and when that happens to the cruise lines, it's going to boom like it has never seen in the past.  We will soon get to the point where the symptoms of covid are so minimal with vaccinated people that nobody will care as we currently see at sporting events.  I've never been on a cruise but I understand that those that have often are loyal to going annually.  As such there is a major pent up desire for a large population to get back on their cruises that increased prices won't deter them.  That industry is so profitable that they have been able to sustain ~ 2 years of non-sailing.   

Also, one needs to factor in that investors/traders often consist of the younger generation (these kids are making $100k out of college).  They don't think the same way we've been trained to think.  They want cheap stocks that come with some risk and a lot of reward.  With the price of cruise line stocks, I see little risk with a high level of reward.  Heck, I got in Carnival at $20 for the most part and it's only up to $25 right now.  Their average pre-covid share price was ~ $50-$55/share so even if it goes up to $40 that's still a 100% rate of return on the $20/share price and a 60% rate of return on its current price of $25/share.  It won't happen overnight but I can definitely see $40/share by December 2023.    Bring on the Boosters the Boomers are gonna cruise !!!!

You know I love me some cruise industry, but I think you are ignoring the impact of inflation under the Biden administration and how that will tighten entertainment dollars for the middle class which is the life blood of the cruise industry.

I agree to a certain extent but I do believe that people have prioritized things much differently since covid and are going to make certain they set $$ aside for vacays and such.  So many people have made a killing on stocks, home sales, and labor demand that there is plenty of discretionary $$ to go around.  It's like 75% of the population has made a killing since covid and the other 25% still think life in unfair and are awaiting handouts.  I'm counting on that 75% to party upon the re-opening as they have started doing.

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You know I love me some cruise industry, but I think you are ignoring the impact of inflation under the Biden administration and how that will tighten entertainment dollars for the middle class which is the life blood of the cruise industry.

I agree to a certain extent but I do believe that people have prioritized things much differently since covid and are going to make certain they set $$ aside for vacays and such.  So many people have made a killing on stocks, home sales, and labor demand that there is plenty of discretionary $$ to go around.  It's like 75% of the population has made a killing since covid and the other 25% still think life in unfair and are awaiting handouts.  I'm counting on that 75% to party upon the re-opening as they have started doing.

I still think you are over estimating the liquidity availability of the gains the middle class made in the recent bull market. The average person doesn't invest like you and isn't going to liquidate a retirement account with penalties to take a vacation. 

I have no doubt people can't wait to go on vacation again, but there are just way too many factors right now that negatively impact that industry that are completely out of their control.

Having said that, I'm ready to pick up more CCL when it gets under 20.

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 If I was buying individual stocks I would pay attention to the fundamentals and stay far away from industries like cruise lines and/or hotels (pretty much anything hospitality related). 

Right on cue as usual -- cruise lines are up ~ 15% since your post.  Reopening stocks (including cruise lines, hotels, and other travel stocks) are on fire.

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 If I was buying individual stocks I would pay attention to the fundamentals and stay far away from industries like cruise lines and/or hotels (pretty much anything hospitality related). 

Right on cue as usual -- cruise lines are up ~ 15% since your post.  Reopening stocks (including cruise lines, hotels, and other travel stocks) are on fire.

It looks like the "fire" fizzled out.  With inflation more and more people aren't going to have the discretionary income to take the vacations that they normally would, not to mention business travel is way down and not coming back.  Throw in massive tax hikes being proposed by your party.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

 If I was buying individual stocks I would pay attention to the fundamentals and stay far away from industries like cruise lines and/or hotels (pretty much anything hospitality related). 

Right on cue as usual -- cruise lines are up ~ 15% since your post.  Reopening stocks (including cruise lines, hotels, and other travel stocks) are on fire.

The big money, Goldman Sachs and the like, know what these companies are worth.  The big money also gets the latest news before we do.   That's why the price is set by the big money.  Any little guy who tries to out-trade the big money is going to lose eventually.  Because eventually, the stock will trade at what the company is actually worth.  That's the whole idea of a stock market.  And if anyone thinks they can assess the value of a publicly traded company better than the big money, they are deluding themselves.  

This is why I don't try to trade stocks.  I try to pick really solid companies, and never sell.  Every now and then I get lucky.  I bought MSFT at about $28.  Today it's about $280.  I didn't sell it when it doubled, or tripled, or quadrupled, or quintupled.   Buy and hold forever really works sometimes.   I've seen too many people sell out prematurely because they were afraid of losing their profit in a stock.  

I've had plenty of failures, too.   One year, I had a trifecta of solid value stocks and all three had CEOs that went to jail and the stock collapsed.  It was Worldcom, Tyco, and something else.  These stocks were highly recommended "value" stocks.  You "couldn't lose money" on those companies, they said.  I owned all three.  Lucky me.  

The only reliable way to really beat the market is to do what Warren Buffet does.  Research, analyze, work work WORK.  Turn over every rock.  Look at and understand every number in every financial statement, every footnote, know their suppliers, know their customers, know the business environment they are in, know the management, know everything.  Because I guarantee you Goldman Sachs knows all that, and that's why they have a much better idea than any of us what these publicly traded businesses are actually worth.   I'm way too lazy for that.  So why try to beat the market when you can match the market with an index fund and do really well, if you are willing to hold on for significant period of time.  It takes no work.  Except having a job and saving up some money, of course.

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Right on cue as usual -- cruise lines are up ~ 15% since your post.  Reopening stocks (including cruise lines, hotels, and other travel stocks) are on fire.

The big money, Goldman Sachs and the like, know what these companies are worth.  The big money also gets the latest news before we do.   That's why the price is set by the big money.  Any little guy who tries to out-trade the big money is going to lose eventually.  Because eventually, the stock will trade at what the company is actually worth.  That's the whole idea of a stock market.  And if anyone thinks they can assess the value of a publicly traded company better than the big money, they are deluding themselves.  

This is why I don't try to trade stocks.  I try to pick really solid companies, and never sell.  Every now and then I get lucky.  I bought MSFT at about $28.  Today it's about $280.  I didn't sell it when it doubled, or tripled, or quadrupled, or quintupled.   Buy and hold forever really works sometimes.   I've seen too many people sell out prematurely because they were afraid of losing their profit in a stock.  

I've had plenty of failures, too.   One year, I had a trifecta of solid value stocks and all three had CEOs that went to jail and the stock collapsed.  It was Worldcom, Tyco, and something else.  These stocks were highly recommended "value" stocks.  You "couldn't lose money" on those companies, they said.  I owned all three.  Lucky me.  

The only reliable way to really beat the market is to do what Warren Buffet does.  Research, analyze, work work WORK.  Turn over every rock.  Look at and understand every number in every financial statement, every footnote, know their suppliers, know their customers, know the business environment they are in, know the management, know everything.  Because I guarantee you Goldman Sachs knows all that, and that's why they have a much better idea than any of us what these publicly traded businesses are actually worth.   I'm way too lazy for that.  So why try to beat the market when you can match the market with an index fund and do really well, if you are willing to hold on for significant period of time.  It takes no work.  Except having a job and saving up some money, of course.

Good post.  Let me clarify that personally, I'm not trying to beat the market in the long term but rather take advantages of the short term opportunities that may only come around a few times within a lifetime. Covid-19 should have been a long term disaster but instead presented investors/traders with an immense amount of financial opportunities.  Warren Buffett failed to adapt with with panic airline stock selloff.  The rare opportunities (major dips) that resulted from Covid-19 is why I changed my financial approach for the time being.  That time is coming to an end soon so I'll likely migrate over to SP500 ETF (SPY) and Bonds or something moderately conservative.  In the meantime, I don't think it's a bad approach to ride the waves that each industry has presented in sequential manner as it relates to Covid-19 (e.g. stay at home stocks, medical/healthcare stocks, tech stocks, recovery stocks, end).

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Right on cue as usual -- cruise lines are up ~ 15% since your post.  Reopening stocks (including cruise lines, hotels, and other travel stocks) are on fire.

The big money, Goldman Sachs and the like, know what these companies are worth.  The big money also gets the latest news before we do.   That's why the price is set by the big money.  Any little guy who tries to out-trade the big money is going to lose eventually.  Because eventually, the stock will trade at what the company is actually worth.  That's the whole idea of a stock market.  And if anyone thinks they can assess the value of a publicly traded company better than the big money, they are deluding themselves.  

This is why I don't try to trade stocks.  I try to pick really solid companies, and never sell.  Every now and then I get lucky.  I bought MSFT at about $28.  Today it's about $280.  I didn't sell it when it doubled, or tripled, or quadrupled, or quintupled.   Buy and hold forever really works sometimes.   I've seen too many people sell out prematurely because they were afraid of losing their profit in a stock.  

I've had plenty of failures, too.   One year, I had a trifecta of solid value stocks and all three had CEOs that went to jail and the stock collapsed.  It was Worldcom, Tyco, and something else.  These stocks were highly recommended "value" stocks.  You "couldn't lose money" on those companies, they said.  I owned all three.  Lucky me.  

The only reliable way to really beat the market is to do what Warren Buffet does.  Research, analyze, work work WORK.  Turn over every rock.  Look at and understand every number in every financial statement, every footnote, know their suppliers, know their customers, know the business environment they are in, know the management, know everything.  Because I guarantee you Goldman Sachs knows all that, and that's why they have a much better idea than any of us what these publicly traded businesses are actually worth.   I'm way too lazy for that.  So why try to beat the market when you can match the market with an index fund and do really well, if you are willing to hold on for significant period of time.  It takes no work.  Except having a job and saving up some money, of course.

I'm kind of in between an investor like you and a "day trader/gambler" like some others.  I very seldom buy individual stocks and will ride them for a while, but most of what I do is sectors and ETF's.  I tend to hold for the most part and have been holding through this latest dip.  A few months ago as a "hedge" I got into some energy and financial ETF's.  They tend to do well on a down slide which happened for me.  I also look more at dividends.

I rode Boeing for a while and if I had held it I would have done better than I did, but I got out of it a while back because they don't pay a dividend.  However, I still hold an ETF that is heavily weighted by Boeing so I still reap some of the benefit of it moving steadily up.

I toyed with the idea of taking some profits last week, but didn't.  I'm thinking that I might move into a little more conservative stance rather than an aggressive stance (I am heavy into technology right now).  Between the inflation that is upon us right now and the chaos in Washington with the threat of higher taxes and raising the debt ceiling I do think that the economy is going to slow down much more than it already has.

The bond market right now doesn't necessarily look good to me either.  I would rather be in stocks right now and probably concentrate more on the "safer" sectors such as energy, consumer staples and maybe materials.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

Gonna dip my toe in SNAP. 

Technical looks solid.

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The big money, Goldman Sachs and the like, know what these companies are worth.  The big money also gets the latest news before we do.   That's why the price is set by the big money.  Any little guy who tries to out-trade the big money is going to lose eventually.  Because eventually, the stock will trade at what the company is actually worth.  That's the whole idea of a stock market.  And if anyone thinks they can assess the value of a publicly traded company better than the big money, they are deluding themselves.  

This is why I don't try to trade stocks.  I try to pick really solid companies, and never sell.  Every now and then I get lucky.  I bought MSFT at about $28.  Today it's about $280.  I didn't sell it when it doubled, or tripled, or quadrupled, or quintupled.   Buy and hold forever really works sometimes.   I've seen too many people sell out prematurely because they were afraid of losing their profit in a stock.  

I've had plenty of failures, too.   One year, I had a trifecta of solid value stocks and all three had CEOs that went to jail and the stock collapsed.  It was Worldcom, Tyco, and something else.  These stocks were highly recommended "value" stocks.  You "couldn't lose money" on those companies, they said.  I owned all three.  Lucky me.  

The only reliable way to really beat the market is to do what Warren Buffet does.  Research, analyze, work work WORK.  Turn over every rock.  Look at and understand every number in every financial statement, every footnote, know their suppliers, know their customers, know the business environment they are in, know the management, know everything.  Because I guarantee you Goldman Sachs knows all that, and that's why they have a much better idea than any of us what these publicly traded businesses are actually worth.   I'm way too lazy for that.  So why try to beat the market when you can match the market with an index fund and do really well, if you are willing to hold on for significant period of time.  It takes no work.  Except having a job and saving up some money, of course.

I'm kind of in between an investor like you and a "day trader/gambler" like some others.  I very seldom buy individual stocks and will ride them for a while, but most of what I do is sectors and ETF's.  I tend to hold for the most part and have been holding through this latest dip.  A few months ago as a "hedge" I got into some energy and financial ETF's.  They tend to do well on a down slide which happened for me.  I also look more at dividends.

I rode Boeing for a while and if I had held it I would have done better than I did, but I got out of it a while back because they don't pay a dividend.  However, I still hold an ETF that is heavily weighted by Boeing so I still reap some of the benefit of it moving steadily up.

I toyed with the idea of taking some profits last week, but didn't.  I'm thinking that I might move into a little more conservative stance rather than an aggressive stance (I am heavy into technology right now).  Between the inflation that is upon us right now and the chaos in Washington with the threat of higher taxes and raising the debt ceiling I do think that the economy is going to slow down much more than it already has.

The bond market right now doesn't necessarily look good to me either.  I would rather be in stocks right now and probably concentrate more on the "safer" sectors such as energy, consumer staples and maybe materials.

Just curious which ETFs in those sectors you would be looking at?

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I'm kind of in between an investor like you and a "day trader/gambler" like some others.  I very seldom buy individual stocks and will ride them for a while, but most of what I do is sectors and ETF's.  I tend to hold for the most part and have been holding through this latest dip.  A few months ago as a "hedge" I got into some energy and financial ETF's.  They tend to do well on a down slide which happened for me.  I also look more at dividends.

I rode Boeing for a while and if I had held it I would have done better than I did, but I got out of it a while back because they don't pay a dividend.  However, I still hold an ETF that is heavily weighted by Boeing so I still reap some of the benefit of it moving steadily up.

I toyed with the idea of taking some profits last week, but didn't.  I'm thinking that I might move into a little more conservative stance rather than an aggressive stance (I am heavy into technology right now).  Between the inflation that is upon us right now and the chaos in Washington with the threat of higher taxes and raising the debt ceiling I do think that the economy is going to slow down much more than it already has.

The bond market right now doesn't necessarily look good to me either.  I would rather be in stocks right now and probably concentrate more on the "safer" sectors such as energy, consumer staples and maybe materials.

Just curious which ETFs in those sectors you would be looking at?

I don't really have any specific ones.  I hold and have had some shares in IYE as far as energy.  It has performed decent for me and pays a pretty good dividend.

For consumer staples, something like IECS is what I would be looking at.  Performance has been relatively steady and the dividend is decent.  One thing to note about this one is that it is actively managed so holdings could change more than a passively managed fund.

As far as materials maybe something like IYM.

Those are all very general ETF's  within broad sectors.  You can also get into more specific ETF's within a sector.  As an example, within the Materials sector you might focus on say timber and lumber (which would have been good a year ago) and look at WOOD.  Another example within the energy sector you might look at something like IEO which is more focused on oil and gas exploration and production.

A couple of tips of how I do it is to first of all look ahead and not so much at today's news.  Also think about what your goal is.  Are you looking for growth or value?  How much risk are you willing to take?  Do you constantly watch the price every day or maybe over a few months?

Look at the holdings of a particular ETF and think about the health of the companies of their top holdings.  Look at the dividends and how they are paid.  The bottom like is do some research.

TRM has put it quite well in this and other threads regarding investing.  Don't expect the stock market to be a "casino" and expect to "hit it big" over a month, a year or even 5 years.  Look at the long term.  The stock market took a huge dump this past couple of weeks, but I didn't panic and sell.  It will eventually come back up and climb even higher.  It always does... over time.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

Bitcoin, Cruise Stocks, and Airline Stocks !! CHA CHING !!! Time to pull some profits.

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I don't understand how CCL is continuing to go up. The industry is basically dead right now. I was hoping it was going to go back into 16-17 range again but no way I buy more at this price.

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Regarding CCL, my philosophy on the risk is the fact that every industry crashed during Covid-19 but eventually rebounded by 100% or more. The cruise line is the only industry that is still down 40% or more from their Dec 2019 stock price. As such, if history is a good indication of the future, then the cruise line stocks will rebound to the levels they were back in Dec 2019 which means we still have a 40% profit to be recognized. I'm convinced the current mindset of investors/traders are that they are more focused on trends than they are on balance sheets and earnings reports. Heck, a lot of investors pick stocks (like Fastly) simply to ride a wave of momentum but know nothing about the company's product.

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Rough out there today.

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Rough out there today.

Bitcoin saved me yesterday as my recovery stocks were down ~ 2%.  I picked up FB dip on the close so hopefully that spikes today then I'll likely dump in a few days.

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Rough out there today.

Bitcoin saved me yesterday as my recovery stocks were down ~ 2%.  I picked up FB dip on the close so hopefully that spikes today then I'll likely dump in a few days.

Regulations are coming. The whistle-blower is a Trump hating liberal who wants Regulations. It was all a setup for the government to step in.

Sent from my SM-G781U using Tapatalk

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