(06-15-2021, 08:31 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:

(06-14-2021, 09:51 PM)Upper Wrote: So the same thing that we could have gotten from Carter Jr with our 4th rounder.

Possibly yes, probably no.

It's possible a 4th rounder can be as good as a 1st rounder, but not probable.

Over the 10-12 years that I've been paying attention to this trend it has gone through cycles wherein 4th round and later picks do quite well for a few years and cycles where 1st and 2nd rd picks dominate the top rushers lists.

The past several years we've seen early picks dominate with a few outliers like Conner, Lindsay, Carson, Mack, Aaron Jones and James Robinson. 

In a couple of previous cycles the balance of early picks to "4th or later" guys has been balanced differently. 
2014 was the most recent year that the top rushers were replete with later picks.
(Morris, Miller, Foster, Forsett, Murray**)   
**Murray was a third rounder. 
In 2015 there were 4 later picks including Murray, then it drops off until the present where higher picks dominate the top ten. Most years have 2 or 3 later picks in the top ten. 

But here is the compelling thing that still keeps me on the side which advocates for selecting RBs with later picks:

Most of these 1st and 2nd round picks make that list for one or two seasons.  (some never make it)
Then their production drops markedly. Some of them quickly out of the league or bouncing from camp to camp each offseason never to regain form. 
This has to be factored into their value. They are adversely affected by injury, take more punishment than other positions, and by most accounts are easily replaced with serviceable, productive backups compared to other spots. 

That said -  I'm still anxious and excited to see what Etienne can bring to the table in this offense. I wouldn't have picked him but I'm hopeful he'll make me glad we did. 
I felt the same about Fournette whom I advocated more strongly against taking and I was severely disappointed in the end as I originally expected to be. 
Hope it's different this time. Etienne looks like a more well rounded prospect.

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