(10-09-2023, 07:58 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [quote pid="1570385" dateline="1696849318"]

(10-09-2023, 06:49 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: I read this all the time.  "You can find a RB in later rounds."  Yes, you can.  You can also find any other position in later rounds.  But if you want a great player, the odds are better if you don't let a bunch of them go off the board before you pick.  

I thought it was a great pick at the time.  I wanted Travis Etienne since I first saw him in college.  The thing I noticed when I first saw him was his acceleration.  What I did not know was how tough he is running between the tackles.

People want to die on this philosophical hill of "don't draft a RB until later in the draft" but when there's a great player, you have to bend that philosophy and that take the guy.

Yea, they have all kinds of hills they espouse. Most of which are only there just to make themselves look smart or as some kind of truth when they really can't think of support.  Since 2000 there have been 48  running back drafted in the 1st round. Many more in round 2.  My favorite and our big miss because he was a local guy, Derrick Henry.  I wanted him bad and we have paid for it.
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Reasons:

1. Running backs are the fastest players to end their careers, averaging a full season less on average than other positions.
2. Running backs are unlikely to improve the W/L record of a bad team. because even if the player is great by the time a team is good enough to take advantage of them they are gone because...
3. Running backs are unlikely to sign a second contract because...
4. Running backs are effectively interchangeable in good offenses as...
5. Most NFL teams have abandoned the Bell Cow back because Back by Committee is more effective which means...
6. Teams need more than one so the value of a 1st is less on a platooning player than a full time player like linemen or defensive back.

As a reminder, my position is that bad teams should not spend a 1st round pick on a running back. For better teams picking late in the first it's more likely a completed team taking a final piece not a bad one taking an early one. The best current example of this is the Chiefs who took CEH at the end of the 1st after winning a Super Bowl, won a Super Bowl last year with him on the bench, and now have a 7th rounder as their primary running back.

The case I present is validated in the following article that looks at recent 1st rounders, and the facts are pretty clear:

[font=Helvetica, sans-serif]"What seems to be the case is that if you already have an exceptional offense with Pro Bowl talent at multiple positions and a great offensive-minded head coach, a running back drafted in the first round can put together a pretty impressive career. However, there is nothing to suggest that these players are any more valuable than the players taken later and partnered with equivalent or even lesser talent, like Jonathan Taylor (2nd), Derrick Henry (2nd), David Johnson (3rd) or other yards-from-scrimmage leaders."[/font]

[font=Helvetica, sans-serif]https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2023/3...n-robinson[/font]

The simple fact is that Running Backs are not worth a first round pick.

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