Last year, the loathsome and detestable Titans won the AFC South, and were once again, mercifully bounced from the playoffs before doing any real damage. The Colts finished in second place, making the wildcard. Like the Titans, they, too were mercifully knocked out after a good showing against Buffahole. After a series of boneheaded trades that directly sapped the team of much needed talent like WR DeAndre Hopkins, and indirectly chased away talent like J,J. Watt and QB DeShaun Watson, the Texans crashed and burned from the playoffs in 2019 to 4-12 last year. In many ways, this follows the path set by the Jaguars, who traded away guys like Jalen Ramsey, Yannick Ngakoue, and Calais Campbell, causing a signifigant talent and morale drain, leading to last year’s last place 1-15 season.
However, change has come to the AFC South this year. Ads you might imagine, bottoming out at 1-15 led to changes in the front office, coaching staff, and on the roster. Gone are Tom Coughlin and Dave Caldwell from the front office, replaced by Baalke. Doug Marrone was fired and replaced by former dynamic college coach Urban Meyer. But perhaps the best thing for Jaguars fans was that last year’s 1-15 finish, coupled with two inexplicable wins by the Jets, resulted in the Jaguars landing the first pick overall in the draft, which they used to take Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, who has been commonly described as a “generational” QB prospect, drawing pre draft comparisons to John Elway and Andrew Luck. To the chagrin of the rest of the deivision, the Texans fired GM/Head coach Bill O’Brien and replaced him with a long time assistant in Culley. However, unlike the Jaguars, they didn’t have any high draft picks to revitalize their roster due to the trade for LT Laremy Tunsil. This was most unfortunate for the Texans, because their current franchise signal caller, DeShaun Watson, is not likely to play for the Texans again for myriad reasons. First, the Texans organizational dysfunction alienated him beyond the point of repair, and he has demanded a trade. On top of that, Watson finds himself in significant legal peril, as some 22 women have alleged sexual misconduct on his part, with criminal charges possible down the road, which has hindered the Texans’ effort to trade him. Indy could not escape the impact of change, as QB Phillip Rivers retired to be replaced by Carson Wentz and LT Anthony Castonzo being replaced by Eric fisher-eventually/ Tennessee represents the closest thing to stability of the four teams, but they too are not without their changes. They lost offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to the Falcons, completed the revamp of their secondary by adding Caleb Farley, added an edge rusher with free agent Bud DuPree, and traded for future Hall of Fame WR Julio Jones.
As for my predictions, I am coming off a good year by my standards. I can only hope I can improve upon my performance from last year. Hopefully my Jaguars can improve as well. They can’t get much worse.
On to this weeks picks…
Jaguars (0-0) at
Texans (0-0)- The Texans announced journey QB Tyrod Taylor will be the week one starting QB against the Jaguars. While Taylor has experience, his history shows he is risk averse to a fault. Fans who have followed him like his relative lack of turnovers, but lament the fact he almost never attacks downfield enough to their liking. He doesn’t seem to have much help on the team. Ingram comes over from Baltimore. He has some mileage, and isn’t a particularly explosive back. The one WR of note is the speedy but fragile and diminutive Brandin Cooks. They added former Chiefs and Jaguars WR Chris Conley, and recently added former Patriot Amendola. Their OL is experienced, but outside of Laremy Tunsil is largely ineffective. Defensively, they have been stripped bare due to defections (J.J. Watt), trades (Clowney, Lawson, McKinney), and poor drafting. They have reverted to a 4-3 scheme after years in a 3-4, with Lovie Smith running a Tampa 2. It may be as much out of necessity as anything, because there doesn’t seem to be much speed in their secondary. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have added Trevor Lawrence, who has shown promise throughout the preseason, Marvin Jones, and a new offensive scheme on offense, and a blitz heavy 3-4 defense featuring more beef up front and more speed in the secondary. Can the Jaguars give adequate protection to Trevor Lawrence? Can Lawrence correctly read the zone defenses? Can the Jaguars hold up better against the run than they did last year? At least for this week, the answers to all three of these questions are “yes.”
Jaguars win 23-17.
Seattle (0-0) at
Indy (0-0) The recent vintage Colts have had a good defense, but not one that was particularly scary to me. However, if Kwity Paye is as I predicted and as advertised, they will have a dominant edge rusher who, paired with DeForest buckner, could add that scary element and take their defense to another level. Reports are he has been unblockable in camp and preseason. The Colts will need him at his best, because Russell Wilson is great. Meanwhile, Wentz is behind a banged up OL. While Nelson should be okay for the opener, who will play LT?
Seattle wins 27-21.
Arizona (0-0) at
Tennessee (0-0) The Tacks have some uncertainty at RT, which may pose some problems against Chandler Jones. But the tacks have too much firepower for Arizona to stop. The Cardinals have no answer for the Tennessee WR duo of AJ Brown and Julio Jones. I don’t think they hold up well against the rushing of Derrick Henry, even though they have a very athletic LB corps.
Tennessee wins 31-20.
Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!
