Currently, Atlanta is last in the league in sacks with 17, per NFL.com.  That's right, kids.  Their pass rush is worse than ours!

Their leading sacker is Dante Fowler with 4.5 sacks.  They could definitely use edge rushing help




Per PFN's simulator, the draft order currently looks like this

1.  Jacksonville
2.  Detroit
3.  Houston
4. NY Jets
5.  NY Giants
6.  Carolina
7.  NY Jets
8.  N.Y. Giants
9.  Washington
10.  Atlanta

This is the official draft order, at least the tp 16...per PFT...


Here are the top 16 choices with the rest of the draft order pending the Sunday night game and the postseason:
1. Jaguars (3-14)
2. Lions (3-13-1)
3. Texans (4-13)
4. Jets (4-13)
5. Giants (4-13)
6. Panthers (5-12)
7. Giants (via 6-11 Bears)
8. Falcons (7-10)
9. Broncos (7-10)
10. Jets (via 7-10 Seahawks)
11. Washington Football Team (7-10)
12. Vikings (8-9)
13. Browns (8-9)
14. Ravens (8-9)
15. Eagles (via 9-8 Dolphins)
16. Eagles (via 9-8 Colts)


If this is true, it doesn't change this part of the analysis too much.

The only team ahead of Atlanta without a need at edge rusher is Carolina.

On top of that, Denver, the Jets and Vikings could all use edge rushers and they are just below Atlanta.

Bottom line:  If Atlanta is to guarantee itself a top pass rusher, they will need to move up.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Currently, Atlanta is last in the league in sacks with 17, per NFL.com.  That's right, kids.  Their pass rush is worse than ours!

Their leading sacker is Dante Fowler with 4.5 sacks.  They could definitely use edge rushing help




Per PFN's simulator, the draft order currently looks like this

1.  Jacksonville
2.  Detroit
3.  Houston
4. NY Jets
5.  NY Giants
6.  Carolina
7.  NY Jets
8.  N.Y. Giants
9.  Washington
10.  Atlanta

This is the official draft order, at least the tp 16...per PFT...


Here are the top 16 choices with the rest of the draft order pending the Sunday night game and the postseason:
1. Jaguars (3-14)
2. Lions (3-13-1)
3. Texans (4-13)
4. Jets (4-13)
5. Giants (4-13)
6. Panthers (5-12)
7. Giants (via 6-11 Bears)
8. Falcons (7-10)
9. Broncos (7-10)
10. Jets (via 7-10 Seahawks)
11. Washington Football Team (7-10)
12. Vikings (8-9)
13. Browns (8-9)
14. Ravens (8-9)
15. Eagles (via 9-8 Dolphins)
16. Eagles (via 9-8 Colts)


If this is true, it doesn't change this part of the analysis too much.

The only team ahead of Atlanta without a need at edge rusher is Carolina.

On top of that, Denver, the Jets and Vikings could all use edge rushers and they are just below Atlanta.

Bottom line:  If Atlanta is to guarantee itself a top pass rusher, they will need to move up.

I still think Atlanta takes a QB. Matt Ryan had one of his worst statistical seasons of his career. He is also getting older as well. Draft experts were wondering if the Falcons would take a QB in last year's draft, but they didn't. The Falcons have nothing behind Ryan in the way of a QB for the future. There is an out in Ryan's contract after the 2022 season where the could afford to take a modest hit and move on with a young, QB. If they took one this season, and had him sit for a year behind Ryan, much like the Niners did with Trey Lance this season, that would set them up for the future, then they could get their pass rusher in the second round, where they have two draft picks.

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This is the official draft order, at least the tp 16...per PFT...


Here are the top 16 choices with the rest of the draft order pending the Sunday night game and the postseason:
1. Jaguars (3-14)
2. Lions (3-13-1)
3. Texans (4-13)
4. Jets (4-13)
5. Giants (4-13)
6. Panthers (5-12)
7. Giants (via 6-11 Bears)
8. Falcons (7-10)
9. Broncos (7-10)
10. Jets (via 7-10 Seahawks)
11. Washington Football Team (7-10)
12. Vikings (8-9)
13. Browns (8-9)
14. Ravens (8-9)
15. Eagles (via 9-8 Dolphins)
16. Eagles (via 9-8 Colts)


If this is true, it doesn't change this part of the analysis too much.

The only team ahead of Atlanta without a need at edge rusher is Carolina.

On top of that, Denver, the Jets and Vikings could all use edge rushers and they are just below Atlanta.

Bottom line:  If Atlanta is to guarantee itself a top pass rusher, they will need to move up.

I still think Atlanta takes a QB. Matt Ryan had one of his worst statistical seasons of his career. He is also getting older as well. Draft experts were wondering if the Falcons would take a QB in last year's draft, but they didn't. The Falcons have nothing behind Ryan in the way of a QB for the future. There is an out in Ryan's contract after the 2022 season where the could afford to take a modest hit and move on with a young, QB. If they took one this season, and had him sit for a year behind Ryan, much like the Niners did with Trey Lance this season, that would set them up for the future, then they could get their pass rusher in the second round, where they have two draft picks.

Not too sure how much that changes the trade up analysis.

If there is a QB projected to go top 5, there will be competition among teams to get him.

Of the top dozen teams, the Lions, Giants, Panthers, Falcons, Broncos and WFT have a need at QB.

The Lions pick 2nd, and if the Falcons want the top guy, they will likely have to get above Detroit to get him.  The Giants, with two first round picks and a new head coach and GM on the way, are going to want to get their own guy in instead of going with Daniel Jones.  If Detroit doesn't take a QB, Atlanta will likely have to get up above the Giants to get their guy.  The Giants have two picks in the top 7, if they are that determined to get their guy, they will be hard for Atlanta to beat.  Both of their picks are above Atlanta's and that extra ist gives them power to move up.  Denver and WFT could be teams that will go with veteran signal callers, but if they lose out on guys like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and DeShaun Watson, they may be interested in moving up.

At the end of the day, the Falcons have substantial need at two of the premier positions at QB and edge rusher, but their draft position is low enough to where they will likely miss out on their guys if they stay at 8. 

They have an extra 2nd round pick.  They may need to utilize their draft capital to try to guarantee one of those players.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

The best opportunity for a trade may be with the Jets. They are loaded with high draft choices and have a weakness at pass rush. If Huchinson and Thibodeaux do nothing to hurt their current draft stock, both may be gone by the time they pick (4th). They also have a strong need at cornerback and hopefully will be targeting one of the top players (Gardner or Stingley) at this position. They possess the following draft picks:

Rd. 1: Picks 4 and 7

Rd. 2: Picks 3 and 6

Rd. 3: Pick 5

There is no way they'd part with their two first rounders to just move up 3 places. However, what if the Jaguars offered their 1st pick for picks 4, 35 and 38? In order to do this, the Jaguars can't totally "fall in love" with one of the two pass rushers. If they believe Hutchinson is the next coming of Nick Bosa or Thibodeaux is the next Myles Garrett they would likely stay put and pass on this trade. It also depends on whether the Jaguars believe someone like Evan Neal would be just as valuable to them as the two pass rushers. Walker Little has looked very good the past two games and I could see the Jaguars believing the combination of Little and Neal would be the best thing for Trevor Lawrence.

This trade would enable the Jets to land the best pass rusher plus one of the top two cornerbacks. They still have a high 3rd round pick plus $50 million in salary cap to fill other needs. In my opinion, they'd be crazy not to make this deal. Are the Jaguars getting enough in return? I believe the answer is "yes.'" Neal could be immediately plugged in at right tackle and if Little got hurt he could move to the left side. The Jaguars could then use picks 33, 35, 38 on the BAP at positions of need (WR, TE, Edge, LB, G) and still have picks 65 and 71 (I believe in round 3). In my perfect world, the Jags draft would then look something like this:

Rd. 1(5): Evan Neal

Rd.2 (33) Trey McBride

Rd. 2 (35) Jahan Dotson

Rd. 2 (38) Cameron Thomas

Rd. 3 (65) Wan Dale Robinson

Rd. 3 (71) Zion Johnson


With this draft class, Lawrence has been helped immeasurably with the addition of 2 receivers who can fly, the top tight end and the makings of an offensive line which can give him the protection he needs. The Jaguars lose the opportunity to draft Hutchinson/Thibodeaux, however Cameron Thomas may turn out to be nearly as good. The only knock on him is the level of talent he faced at SDSU, but the tape doesn't lie and I believe he'd be a great complement to Josh Allen.

With the $70 million in salary cap, they should pursue help at linebacker which was notably ignored in my draft. Another player I'd be interested in would be Laken Tomlinson to further strengthen the line. Norwell will be gone and Linder gets hurt way too much. Teron Armstead is still target number 1 and if they were so fortunate to get him they would likely pass on Neal in favor of someone like Jameson Williams.

Bottom line, I believe the Jaguars are in a position to make major improvements next season. If they retain Baalke and he doesn't trade down as demonstrated above, I will be the most frustrated in my 27 years as a fan and ticket-holder.

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The best opportunity for a trade may be with the Jets. They are loaded with high draft choices and have a weakness at pass rush. If Huchinson and Thibodeaux do nothing to hurt their current draft stock, both may be gone by the time they pick (4th). They also have a strong need at cornerback and hopefully will be targeting one of the top players (Gardner or Stingley) at this position. They possess the following draft picks:

Rd. 1: Picks 4 and 7

Rd. 2: Picks 3 and 6

Rd. 3: Pick 5

There is no way they'd part with their two first rounders to just move up 3 places. However, what if the Jaguars offered their 1st pick for picks 4, 35 and 38? In order to do this, the Jaguars can't totally "fall in love" with one of the two pass rushers. If they believe Hutchinson is the next coming of Nick Bosa or Thibodeaux is the next Myles Garrett they would likely stay put and pass on this trade. It also depends on whether the Jaguars believe someone like Evan Neal would be just as valuable to them as the two pass rushers. Walker Little has looked very good the past two games and I could see the Jaguars believing the combination of Little and Neal would be the best thing for Trevor Lawrence.

This trade would enable the Jets to land the best pass rusher plus one of the top two cornerbacks. They still have a high 3rd round pick plus $50 million in salary cap to fill other needs. In my opinion, they'd be crazy not to make this deal. Are the Jaguars getting enough in return? I believe the answer is "yes.'" Neal could be immediately plugged in at right tackle and if Little got hurt he could move to the left side. The Jaguars could then use picks 33, 35, 38 on the BAP at positions of need (WR, TE, Edge, LB, G) and still have picks 65 and 71 (I believe in round 3). In my perfect world, the Jags draft would then look something like this:

Rd. 1(5): Evan Neal

Rd.2 (33) Trey McBride

Rd. 2 (35) Jahan Dotson

Rd. 2 (38) Cameron Thomas

Rd. 3 (65) Wan Dale Robinson

Rd. 3 (71) Zion Johnson


With this draft class, Lawrence has been helped immeasurably with the addition of 2 receivers who can fly, the top tight end and the makings of an offensive line which can give him the protection he needs. The Jaguars lose the opportunity to draft Hutchinson/Thibodeaux, however Cameron Thomas may turn out to be nearly as good. The only knock on him is the level of talent he faced at SDSU, but the tape doesn't lie and I believe he'd be a great complement to Josh Allen.

With the $70 million in salary cap, they should pursue help at linebacker which was notably ignored in my draft. Another player I'd be interested in would be Laken Tomlinson to further strengthen the line. Norwell will be gone and Linder gets hurt way too much. Teron Armstead is still target number 1 and if they were so fortunate to get him they would likely pass on Neal in favor of someone like Jameson Williams.

Bottom line, I believe the Jaguars are in a position to make major improvements next season. If they retain Baalke and he doesn't trade down as demonstrated above, I will be the most frustrated in my 27 years as a fan and ticket-holder.

One minor point of correction:

The Jets' second 1st round pick came from Seattle for S Jamal Adams.  Since Seattle won yesterday, their first round pick fell to 10th overall, not 7th.  The Giants have pick 7.


As for the substance of your post, I think your reasoning is sound on many levels.  While the trade value charts would posit the Jets giving up both of their first round picks to get the number one overall pick 2000 points for the top overall pick vs 3100 points for picks 4 & 10 being somewhat comparable value (Jaguars might have to send over the top pick of the 4th round tp balance that out oer the trade value chart), the fact is having two first round picks in the top ten is worth far too much to the Jets than having the top pick, especially since they already drafted who they think is their franchise QB this past spring.  They need to give him help, and the more picks dedicated to that, the better.  Similarly, I have to think the Jaguars have need for quality and quantity in terms of draft choices.  That need is sufficient enough to not necessarily "die on the hill of value" in a draft without a franchise signal caller at the top to command a ton of picks in return.

I think your scenario meets both needs, if the Jets are hell bent on one of the top two guys.  I think if edge rusher is their top draft priority, they could go with Karlaftis at 4 and be okay with it.  For them, I would have to think the bigger determinant of their strategy is whether they want to take Hamilton at 4.

He would have to be a consideration for them because that cover 3 Seattle type defense they are running benefits greatly by a dominant S, and Hamilton is by fat the top S prospect in this draft, and likely will not be available at 10.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

The best opportunity for a trade may be with the Jets. They are loaded with high draft choices and have a weakness at pass rush. If Huchinson and Thibodeaux do nothing to hurt their current draft stock, both may be gone by the time they pick (4th). They also have a strong need at cornerback and hopefully will be targeting one of the top players (Gardner or Stingley) at this position. They possess the following draft picks:

Rd. 1: Picks 4 and 7

Rd. 2: Picks 3 and 6

Rd. 3: Pick 5

There is no way they'd part with their two first rounders to just move up 3 places. However, what if the Jaguars offered their 1st pick for picks 4, 35 and 38? In order to do this, the Jaguars can't totally "fall in love" with one of the two pass rushers. If they believe Hutchinson is the next coming of Nick Bosa or Thibodeaux is the next Myles Garrett they would likely stay put and pass on this trade. It also depends on whether the Jaguars believe someone like Evan Neal would be just as valuable to them as the two pass rushers. Walker Little has looked very good the past two games and I could see the Jaguars believing the combination of Little and Neal would be the best thing for Trevor Lawrence.

This trade would enable the Jets to land the best pass rusher plus one of the top two cornerbacks. They still have a high 3rd round pick plus $50 million in salary cap to fill other needs. In my opinion, they'd be crazy not to make this deal. Are the Jaguars getting enough in return? I believe the answer is "yes.'" Neal could be immediately plugged in at right tackle and if Little got hurt he could move to the left side. The Jaguars could then use picks 33, 35, 38 on the BAP at positions of need (WR, TE, Edge, LB, G) and still have picks 65 and 71 (I believe in round 3). In my perfect world, the Jags draft would then look something like this:

Rd. 1(5): Evan Neal

Rd.2 (33) Trey McBride

Rd. 2 (35) Jahan Dotson

Rd. 2 (38) Cameron Thomas

Rd. 3 (65) Wan Dale Robinson

Rd. 3 (71) Zion Johnson


With this draft class, Lawrence has been helped immeasurably with the addition of 2 receivers who can fly, the top tight end and the makings of an offensive line which can give him the protection he needs. The Jaguars lose the opportunity to draft Hutchinson/Thibodeaux, however Cameron Thomas may turn out to be nearly as good. The only knock on him is the level of talent he faced at SDSU, but the tape doesn't lie and I believe he'd be a great complement to Josh Allen.

With the $70 million in salary cap, they should pursue help at linebacker which was notably ignored in my draft. Another player I'd be interested in would be Laken Tomlinson to further strengthen the line. Norwell will be gone and Linder gets hurt way too much. Teron Armstead is still target number 1 and if they were so fortunate to get him they would likely pass on Neal in favor of someone like Jameson Williams.

Bottom line, I believe the Jaguars are in a position to make major improvements next season. If they retain Baalke and he doesn't trade down as demonstrated above, I will be the most frustrated in my 27 years as a fan and ticket-holder.

One minor point of correction:

The Jets' second 1st round pick came from Seattle for S Jamal Adams.  Since Seattle won yesterday, their first round pick fell to 10th overall, not 7th.  The Giants have pick 7.


As for the substance of your post, I think your reasoning is sound on many levels.  While the trade value charts would posit the Jets giving up both of their first round picks to get the number one overall pick 2000 points for the top overall pick vs 3100 points for picks 4 & 10 being somewhat comparable value (Jaguars might have to send over the top pick of the 4th round tp balance that out oer the trade value chart), the fact is having two first round picks in the top ten is worth far too much to the Jets than having the top pick, especially since they already drafted who they think is their franchise QB this past spring.  They need to give him help, and the more picks dedicated to that, the better.  Similarly, I have to think the Jaguars have need for quality and quantity in terms of draft choices.  That need is sufficient enough to not necessarily "die on the hill of value" in a draft without a franchise signal caller at the top to command a ton of picks in return.

I think your scenario meets both needs, if the Jets are hell bent on one of the top two guys.  I think if edge rusher is their top draft priority, they could go with Karlaftis at 4 and be okay with it.  For them, I would have to think the bigger determinant of their strategy is whether they want to take Hamilton at 4.

He would have to be a consideration for them because that cover 3 Seattle type defense they are running benefits greatly by a dominant S, and Hamilton is by fat the top S prospect in this draft, and likely will not be available at 10.

Thanks for the correction. By picking 10th rather than 7th, the Jets might not land either Stingley or Gardner. Hopefully that would not deter them from this trade. Trade value charts are only meant to be a guide, but the chart I refer to (Draft Tek), would actually give the Jets a very slight advantage (150 points) on this trade. Hamilton would be an option for them since safeties tend to drop as would Booth from Clemson, whom some consider better than Stingley.

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hells yeah

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