(01-27-2022, 11:25 AM)mikesez Wrote:

(01-27-2022, 11:11 AM)Mikey Wrote: Where are you getting 37% chance of winning from??

The initial odds are 50%. Heads, or tails. The visitor gets the first chance to determine their advantage, if any. If they win that random event, they get to pick one of three choices that they believe is most advantageous for victory. If they do not, the advantage goes to the team that didn't even get a chance to make the call on the random event.

That's about as fair as you're going to make it without having some weird lottery drawing that chooses which team gets to make the choice.

The 37% number is from the 11 playoff games that have been decided in overtime. It is the number of teams who lose the coin flip and then at least get a chance to go on offense in overtime

The coin flip is still 50-50. The winner of the flip is allowed to choose whatever they believe to be the greatest advantage to help them win. Each team has an equal chance at winning or losing the toss. and even at that, the loser of the toss gets to influence the outcome by making the second choice. So if a team wins and elects to receive, the loser decides which goal to defend, and in outdoor games, they'll pick the side with the worse weather conditions should it come to a placekick. 

I guess I am just less at issue with a random event deciding a game. I'm ok with some stories not having a happy ending. We could probably argue in circles for months on this, but thus far I haven't heard of a fairer way to determine the winner without unnecessarily prolonging an already long battle on the field. Allowing for FGs to be matched takes away the cheapness of a victory won by moderate offensive production or a random penalty shortening the field; but if you let a team march 80 yards on you, maybe you weren't the victor.

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