(01-31-2022, 05:36 PM)mikesez Wrote:

(01-31-2022, 12:08 PM)Mikey Wrote: But now the "scores a TD on first possession" is down to 7/12, only 58.3%, which shows that as sample size grows, the percentage is regressing to the mean (54%).

Teams are always trying to win, and they don't care how they win.  Getting a TD on the first possession counts the same as an FG on the 2nd.
If we are going to deliberately introduce a random event, a coin toss, into the end of a game, we should look at the win/loss record of a team that wins the coin toss, regardless of how they eventually win the game.

but your argument was that the coin flip is a near-automatic failure for the loser. what significance is the coin flip if both teams have their chance to score? At that point, the coin flip was a moot point. Once both teams possess the ball, the supposed advantage of winning the toss goes away.

Given that we're only working with 12 games in over a decade makes the reliability of any percentage extremely suspect.

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