(02-02-2022, 05:08 PM)Mikey Wrote:

(02-02-2022, 01:50 PM)mikesez Wrote: In regulation, either the number of possessions will be equal, or one team will have one more than the other.  It could be either team, regardless of the opening coin toss. The extra possession in this case equated to 10% more chances to score, which is not significant.

In overtime, again, the two teams will either have the same number of possessions, or one team will have one more, but, the extra possession always goes to the team that won the coin toss.  If the possessions break 2 to 1, the team winning the coin toss got 100% more chances to score.  If the possessions break 1 to 0, the advantage in terms of chances becomes very hard to compute.  About 1% of all possessions end in a safety or defensive touchdown, so you can say that the advantage is 99 vs 1 or 9900% more chances.

Again, I am fine with accepting the huge disparity so that the game can end quickly on an exciting play.  I am not fine with giving that huge advantage away based on a random, non-athletic event.

I hate when my son does this, but teams could fumble a kickoff or onside kicks could sway the possesions beyond a 1-possession advantage

Holy moly, could you imagine kicking a FG in OT on the opening possession, and then successfully recovering an onside kick to ice the game?

The drawback to virtually every skill-based event though is either the time to complete, the risk of injury, or the fact that it becomes "football-adjacent".
Sadly, I don't know that there's a realistic, plausible way to get away from the coin toss. If there was, I'd certainly be intrigued to see if the league would consider that direction.