I don’t know if it’s possible, I doubt it. But trading down is probably the best move for the franchise. Any scenarios?
1. Aidan Hutchinson destroys the combine and drives his stock up
2. Kayvon Thibodeaux destroys the combine and drives his stock up
3. Malik Willis, spending all week with the Lions coaching staff, builds a strong pitch at the Senior Bowl (maybe the Lions gives us a second to move up and insure Willis).

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I don’t know if it’s possible, I doubt it. But trading down is probably the best move for the franchise. Any scenarios?
1. Aidan Hutchinson destroys the combine and drives his stock up
2. Kayvon Thibodeaux destroys the combine and drives his stock up
3. Malik Willis, spending all week with the Lions coaching staff, builds a strong pitch at the Senior Bowl (maybe the Lions gives us a second to move up and insure Willis).

I usually do a thread or two on this very topic every year.  I was planning to do one a little later, once the coaches were named and free agency went underway, but I've already been kicking some things around, so I might as well give it a shot now.

Generally, i don't think this is a strng year to trade down from the #1 overall spot, since there doesn't appear to be the can't miss QB prospect going into this draft.  None of the guys are as good as last April's class.  In fact, thinking about it more, I don't think any of these guys would seem to rate as favorably as the top two guys in the 2015 draft class (Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota).   I am hoping guys like Pickett and Willis have great offseasons and rocket up the draft boards between now and the draft to maximize the demand for our pick.  But I don't necessarily see that happening.  That said, let's examine the draft order, needs, draft capital, and possible trade up targets of the top dozen picks.

1.  Jacksonville

2.  Detroit, Needs QB, WR, Edge.  They have two first round picks this year#2 overall and the Rams (either 31 or 32 overall depending on the Super Bowl, and they will have two first rounders next year, their own and the Rams, due to the Matt Stafford trade.  However, since they have so much draft capital the next two years, since they are picking second if they do nothing, since they know we already took TL, and since there doesn't appear to be that stud QB at the top of the draft, the odds of them trading up one spot are virtually nil.

3.  Houston texans-Needs arguably QB, OL, WR, DL, LB, DB.  For the first time in a long time, the Texans currently have the standard allotment of picks because Bill O'Brien's disastrous trades finally exhausted themselves.  They could end up getting a boatload of picks if they can pull off a trade of Deshaun Watson, but depending on what happens with these sexual assault allegations, the big payoff might not come until 2023, if at all.  Since they are within the division, and since they are only two picks down, I don't see them trading with us, either.

4.  New York Jets-Needs:  WR, OL, TE, DB, Edge.  They have lots of draft capital, thanks to the Jamal Adams trade to Seattle, they have the #4 and #10 picks, and they have two 2nd round picks, #35 and #38.  Having drafted a QB #2 overall last spring, they have many of the same needs as we have.  Traditionally, they have been a team that trades up in the draft.  But I don't see them doing so at least at the top of this draft.  They may be more likely to trade back up into the bottom or even middle of the first round from the 2nd round.

5.  N.Y. Giants--Needs:  possibly QB, OL, Edge rusher.  Thanks to last year's trade down with Chicago for QB justin Fields, the Giants have lots of draft capital this year, with picks 5 and 7 in the first round.  If you are talking about teams possibly trading with the Jaguars for the top spot, here is where things start to get interesting.  It's rare that team owners are involved in blowing draft smoke, especially at this time of year, but they have a new coach and new GM.  When new coaches and new GMs come aboard, they usually want their guy at QB, which means despite Mara's representations, at this point, I think there's a decent shot they move on from Daniel Jones.  If a QB rises up the draft board into the top 5 status, they may need to move up over Detroit and maybe Houston to get that guy.  Besides QB, their other two positions of big need are OL (T specifically) and Edge rusher.  If you look at most draft boards/mock drafts at this stage, the guys at the top of these boards and drafts are T Evan Neal and edge rushers Thibideaux and Hutchinson.  It would make sense for them to stand pat and take an edge rusher like Karlaftsis (if they run a 4-3) and a T like the kid from NC State or Charles Cross, if they want a specific guy, this is about the spot where they may need to consider moving up to to get him.

6.  Carolina-Needs:  QB, OL.  Carolina Carlina's defense is pretty decently stocked.  They are pretty strong along the defensive line with a good DT in Derek Brown and good edge rushers.  Even if former Jaguar CJ Henderson continues to go AWOL, they are decent in the secondary at least for the moment, having gotten former Patriot Stephon Gilmore and S Jeremy Chinn.  What they lack is on offense.  Their owner is obsessed with getting a franchise signal caller.  If they don't acquire a vet like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson or DeShaun Watson, they will need to draft one.  It's possible a guy like Wison or Pickett would fit nicely in at 6, but the danger for Carolina is that QB is typically a high demand position, and if they are relying on the draft to get one early, they may have to move up ahead of Detroit, Houston, or NYG to get one.  Same holds true for LT.  The problem for Carolina is that thanks to disastrous trades for Sam Darnold and Henderson, they have no draft capital this year, with no picks in the 2nd or 3rd round.  That might keep them from making a trade for one of the other veteran QBs.  If anything, I could see them trying to move down to recoup some of that drsft capital.

8.  Atlanta-Needs:  QB, WR, Edge.  I think of the teams in the top ten, Atlanta represents one of the strongest possibilities for the Jaguars to trade back.  Atlanta finished dead last in sacks by a wide margin, not even reaching 20 sacks in 17 games.  The problem is there are three edge rushers in the top of this class (Thibs, Hutchinson and Karlaftsis), and all three could easily be gone by #8.  Compounding things for Atlanta is that Karlaftsis is more of a true 4-3 DE, while both Hutchinson and Thibs are more standup rushers that would better fit Atlanta's schemes.  This is a relatively deep class of edge rushers, and Altnata could gamble that they can get a guy later.  But edge rushers are typically in such high demand, they would be chancing not being able to adequately address that area considering they may even need to double up at edge rusher  Atlanta has two second round picks, plus they have a WR that is currently a question mark in Ridley that could be of help to TL.

9.  Denver-Needs QB, Edge Rusher.  I think this is another spot that could see the Jaguars successfully trade back from #1, but for various reasons.  Regarding the edge rushers, the analysis is similar to Atlanta's.  Since they traded Von Miller and Bradley Chubb has had injury issues, Denver could use an edge rusher, irrespective of whether Hackett keeps the 3-4 Denver is currently running or changes to a 4-3.  But like Atlanta, they are possibly picking too far down to land one of the big three edge rushers.  But more interesting is how QB affects the dynamic.  Denver also has a new Head coach, and he will likely want his own guy at QB since Bridgewater and Lock have proven not to be long term answers at the positionm so rookie analysis may apply to them, too.  However, they are reported to be one o the teams interested in trading for Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers.  If that trade goes through, as expected, Green bay could be the team occupying this spot.  If so, Green Bay could use a QB if they have soured on Love, or a T because of Bakhtiari's injury issues.  It's possible they could adequately address either position if they wound up at pick #9, but they are low enough to possibly miss out on their top guys if they stood pat.  Also, if they stay at 9, they would also address WR at that spot, since Davante Adams may want to depart if Rodgers leaves.

11.  Washington-Needs QB and T.  The Sk....errr....Commanders do not have a long term answer at QB.  Both heinecke and Fitzpatrick can be good placeholders, neither can take Washington where they want to go.  With their defense, it would make much more sense for them to go after one of the vets like Garoppolo, Wilson, etc. than to try to hope on a rookie QB to develop.

12.  Minnesota-Still in pretty good position at QB and T.  They need edge rushers though.  Will they play a 4-3 or a 3-4?  Either way, they will likely miss out on the top 3 edge rushers if they stay at 11.  While 11 might be an ideal spot for Jacksonville if they want to take a WR early, I'm not sure Minnesota would have the capital or inclination to move up that far, and I'm not sure Jacksonville would want to move that far back.

Hope this helps.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Good post Bullseye....thanks.

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Good post Bullseye....thanks.

Thanks.

Of course, all takes are subject to change as I get a better grasp of the facts and will probably be spectacularly wrong by the time the draft rolls around.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I don’t know if it’s possible, I doubt it. But trading down is probably the best move for the franchise. Any scenarios?
1. Aidan Hutchinson destroys the combine and drives his stock up
2. Kayvon Thibodeaux destroys the combine and drives his stock up
3. Malik Willis, spending all week with the Lions coaching staff, builds a strong pitch at the Senior Bowl (maybe the Lions gives us a second to move up and insure Willis).

Sadly, outside of a GM going mad with power, I don't think is a year that anyone is going to trade up to 1, unless we offer the pick at a severe discount. And in that scenario, I'd rather just take the guy we think is the best combination of value, fit, and potential than to take a loss by sliding back for one or two lesser players.

With Detroit picking right behind us, there would have to be someone else infatuated with Willis, Pickett, or any other QB and linked to us in a trade for them to even be tempted to move. Again, unless Pickett craps the bed or Willis plays and measures well beyond expectation, they're probably in good place to stand pat and take the next guy.

If Hutch or Thibs destroy things to get their stock that high, why wouldn't you take them yourself?

I think the more realistic scenario may be that between time running out on TLaw's deal, new coach, and Baalke left to defend his position in the FO, we look to trade future picks to get back into the first and pick a second player, whether that be an OT or WR. I'd do this for guys like Linderbaum, Burks, or London in a heart beat.

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Ideally would like a trade down with Washington. Swap 1 with 11 and for 42 or 73 and a future pick in 2023 if they don't want to fork over the 42nd overall pick.

Would take Tyler Linderbaum, Traylon Burks or Drake London 11th overall.

Use the 42nd overall pick on Chad Muma or Christian Harris at ILB.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

A lot of teams behind us that desperately need a QB. Think our best chance is for one of those teams to fall in love with a guy and get worried that guy won't be there at their spot. Same could be true of someone falling in love with Hutchinson or Thib but QBs are always the biggest draw.

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Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.

Ideally would like a trade down with Washington. Swap 1 with 11 and for 42 or 73 and a future pick in 2023 if they don't want to fork over the 42nd overall pick.

Would take Tyler Linderbaum, Traylon Burks or Drake London 11th overall.

Use the 42nd overall pick on Chad Muma or Christian Harris at ILB.

I want nothing to do with Drake London at any point above the 3rd round, but realize London may be a possibility now with Pederson in the fold.  I'd take burks, Even Williams right now over London.

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A lot of teams behind us that desperately need a QB.  Think our best chance is for one of those teams to fall in love with a guy and get worried that guy won't be there at their spot.  Same could be true of someone falling in love with Hutchinson or Thib but QBs are always the biggest draw.

I think the teams most desperate for a QB are either too close to us for it to make sense for them to trade up (Detroit) or too far back (Washington, Pittsburgh, Seattle) to get up that high.

QBs are the biggest draw,,,but not the ONLY draw.  If the best deal is coming from a team wanting a DE, then dont hesitate to take the deal if it's a good one.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I agree with Bullseye that the Falcons would be the team most likely to trade with. Rather than reaching for a quarterback, however, they will be targeting either Thobodeaux or Hutchinson due to their abysmal pass rush. The Jaguars would then acquire picks 8, 43 and 63. Based on Fanspeak's value chart, the Falcons would actually get the better of this trade. If they plan to keep Matt Ryan or possibly trade for someone like Garappolo, the trade would make total sense. The Jaguars, on the other hand, end up with 6 picks in the top 70. What they do in free agency would determine what they use these picks on, but I could definitely see a receiver, tight end, edge rusher, linebacker and 2 offensive linemen among this group. Spielman,Baalke/Pederson should be very happy about this since the talent in this draft class goes much beyond 70 players.

It wouldn't surprise me, either, if the Falcons offer Calvin Ridley as part of this package. This could benefit the Jaguars since receiver is their greatest need, however I would not want to part with the 8th pick. Give me a rejuvenated Ridley and the 8th pick and you have a deal. The 8th pick could then be the highest rated player on their board from the offensive line, edge or receiver position groups.

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Ideally would like a trade down with Washington. Swap 1 with 11 and for 42 or 73 and a future pick in 2023 if they don't want to fork over the 42nd overall pick.

Would take Tyler Linderbaum, Traylon Burks or Drake London 11th overall.

Use the 42nd overall pick on Chad Muma or Christian Harris at ILB.

Chad Muma is a beast. I'm also a huge fan of Damone Clark and Troy Andersen. Whatever scheme we go to 3-4 or 4-3, we need at least 1 true starting ILB/MLB.

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I don't see anyone trading up for a QB. I'm watching the Senior Bowl and Kenny Pickett has had an up and down week and Malik Willis looks like crap in this game. He makes plays with his feet, but he is God awful throwing the ball. His passes were one hopping receivers, he lacked vision in the pocket as he missed receivers running open and he holds the ball entirely too long. Thank God, we don't need a QB.

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I would be more than shocked if we are able to trade down for 1. If we do I bet we get WAY less than typical for trading down.

Now, with Spielman's history of trading down I won't be shocked if we trade down from 33 or 65 whatsoever.

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I'd be willing to bet Spielman has never had 12 draft picks like he does right now and he has almost always had a staked roster. I think this will be the one year he don't trade back and up if anything

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I agree with Bullseye that the Falcons would be the team most likely to trade with. Rather than reaching for a quarterback, however, they will be targeting either Thobodeaux or Hutchinson due to their abysmal pass rush. The Jaguars would then acquire picks 8, 43 and 63. Based on Fanspeak's value chart, the Falcons would actually get the better of this trade. If they plan to keep Matt Ryan or possibly trade for someone like Garappolo, the trade would make total sense. The Jaguars, on the other hand, end up with 6 picks in the top 70. What they do in free agency would determine what they use these picks on, but I could definitely see a receiver, tight end, edge rusher, linebacker and 2 offensive linemen among this group. Spielman,Baalke/Pederson should be very happy about this since the talent in this draft class goes much beyond 70 players.

It wouldn't surprise me, either, if the Falcons offer Calvin Ridley as part of this package. This could benefit the Jaguars since receiver is their greatest need, however I would not want to part with the 8th pick. Give me a rejuvenated Ridley and the 8th pick and you have a deal. The 8th pick could then be the highest rated player on their board from the offensive line, edge or receiver position groups.

At this point, Falcons fans seem to think they can get a 1st rounder in trade straight up for Ridley.  If the Jaguars wanted him as part of the consideration for swapping 1st rounders, that might be problematic, although per the trade cvalue chart, the #1 overall (3000 points) is worth the #6 (1600 points) and #8 (1400) picks.  If Ridley would truly damand a #1 in return (a dubious proposition), including him in the trade may not be unreasonable.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Here is a video discussing post senior bowl draft risers.

If he is correct,m then it has potential ramifications for us trading back.

https://youtu.be/bzMAcxITRd0

According to this guy, Malik Willis has ascended to a top 10 pick. If so, this potentially enhances our position to command a bigger haul in trade.

He also has edge rusher Jermaine Johnson ascending from a borderline first round pick to a top 12 pick. If this is true, then it hurts our bargaining power, as Atlanta and Denver, who both have need at edge rusher, have an alternative to the top 3 od Thibs, Hutchinson and Karlaftsis.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Kiper has Willias #2 on his latest big board. Still hard to see someone trading up to 1, but it seems more possible than it did a week ago.

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Awesome. Getting an extra 2 and 3 in future picks in this year's draft would be ideal. Don't care if it's Atlanta, Philadelphia or Washington.

You're still looking at a damn CB in Gardner, the best offensive lineman overall in Linderbaum or Ekwonu at T or your pick of the litter at WR between Burks, London and Olave in RD1 with swaps there.

Getting that extra RD2 and RD3 pick gives you a lot of options to fix your line, your linebacking core and adding another stout edge rusher. Could snatch up a quality TE as well.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Imagine trading multiple firsts and other picks for Malik Willis. That would be WILD.

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Here is a video discussing post senior bowl draft risers.

If he is correct,m then it has potential ramifications for us trading back.

https://youtu.be/bzMAcxITRd0

According to this guy, Malik Willis has ascended to a top 10 pick.  If so, this potentially enhances our position to command a bigger haul in trade.

He also has edge rusher Jermaine Johnson ascending from a borderline first round pick to a top 12 pick.  If this is true, then it hurts our bargaining power, as Atlanta and Denver, who both have need at edge rusher, have an alternative to the top 3 od Thibs, Hutchinson and Karlaftsis.

Being a top 10 pick and trading up to get him at #1 overall are two entirely different things. Yes, supposedly Willis did have a good Senior Bowl week of practice, but in the actual game, he was a dumpster fire and that should concern any team wanting to draft him. He short-hopped passes, missed open reads, looked completely flustered when pressured and held the ball entirely too long. His athleticism and speed allowed him to make some good plays, but as a passer, he's way more raw than Lamar Jackson was coming out of college. I see RG3 2.0 when I watch Malik Willis. 

Kenny Pickett is the complete opposite. I hear he had a not so impressive week during Senior Bowl practices, but in the actual game, he looked far and away the best passer on the field. He was comfortable in the pocket, had decent mobility, made good reads and showed pretty good arm talent. He was 6/6 for 89 yards and a touchdown, while Willis was 2/4 for 11 yards. I just don't see any way someone trades up to #1 overall for either of these guys.

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Imagine trading multiple firsts and other picks for Malik Willis. That would be WILD.

Any team willing to do that for Willis is completely brain dead. He's RG3 2.0.

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Here is a video discussing post senior bowl draft risers.

If he is correct,m then it has potential ramifications for us trading back.

https://youtu.be/bzMAcxITRd0

According to this guy, Malik Willis has ascended to a top 10 pick.  If so, this potentially enhances our position to command a bigger haul in trade.

He also has edge rusher Jermaine Johnson ascending from a borderline first round pick to a top 12 pick.  If this is true, then it hurts our bargaining power, as Atlanta and Denver, who both have need at edge rusher, have an alternative to the top 3 od Thibs, Hutchinson and Karlaftsis.

Being a top 10 pick and trading up to get him at #1 overall are two entirely different things. Yes, supposedly Willis did have a good Senior Bowl week of practice, but in the actual game, he was a dumpster fire and that should concern any team wanting to draft him. He short-hopped passes, missed open reads, looked completely flustered when pressured and held the ball entirely too long. His athleticism and speed allowed him to make some good plays, but as a passer, he's way more raw than Lamar Jackson was coming out of college. I see RG3 2.0 when I watch Malik Willis. 

Kenny Pickett is the complete opposite. I hear he had a not so impressive week during Senior Bowl practices, but in the actual game, he looked far and away the best passer on the field. He was comfortable in the pocket, had decent mobility, made good reads and showed pretty good arm talent. He was 6/6 for 89 yards and a touchdown, while Willis was 2/4 for 11 yards. I just don't see any way someone trades up to #1 overall for either of these guys.

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  Agreed that being a top 10 pick and trading up to get him are two totally different things.

But there is also a difference between being a top 10 pick immediately after the Senior Bowl vs being a top QB prospect immediately before the draft.

Between the combines, interviews, individual workouts, and typical positional desperation, it's possible (if unlikely) that a QB prospect could climb the draft boards and cause some desperate team to reach for one up high.

Heck, Jamarcus Russell managed to go 1st overall, as did Jared Goff.

I think the circumstances involving more veteran QBs than usual that may become available (Rodgers, Garoppolo, Wilson, Watson, Cousinm Wentz) is what could change that dynamic this year.  But when the music stops playing post free agency pre draft, any team left without a proverbial seat could try to move up for one of those guys.

Not saying it would be an advisable move for them, but desperation causes teams to do dumb things.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!