Just so we're on the same page, who do you consider to be gambles?

I count Matt Jones, Justin Blackmon and Blake Bortles among the gambles.

I'm not talking about flat out misses.  I'm talking those guys with known risks (switching positions, off field issues)

Don't forget R.J. Soward. Coughlin knew that the guy had issues, but felt like he'd be able to keep him under control. Turned out to be a big mistake.

Soward certainly qualifies, though I was trying to come up with more recent examples.

But absolutely add him to the list of gambles.

Damn, we need to get this draft (and the next few) right for a change.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I totally agree. We've gambled too much in recent years and it hasn't worked out.

Just so we're on the same page, who do you consider to be gambles?

I count Matt Jones, Justin Blackmon and Blake Bortles among the gambles.

I'm not talking about flat out misses.  I'm talking those guys with known risks (switching positions, off field issues)

Dave Caldwell was the king of drafting injured players, thinking we got great value, when in reality all we got were injury-prone players.  Just look at Dee Dee Westbrook, Marqise Lee, and many many others.  Myles Jack did turn out to be a 2nd round bargain from injury though.

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Just so we're on the same page, who do you consider to be gambles?

I count Matt Jones, Justin Blackmon and Blake Bortles among the gambles.

I'm not talking about flat out misses.  I'm talking those guys with known risks (switching positions, off field issues)

Dave Caldwell was the king of drafting injured players, thinking we got great value, when in reality all we got were injury-prone players.  Just look at Dee Dee Westbrook, Marqise Lee, and many many others.  Myles Jack did turn out to be a 2nd round bargain from injury though.

Aaron Colvin is another rhat comes to mind.

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Dave Caldwell was the king of drafting injured players, thinking we got great value, when in reality all we got were injury-prone players.  Just look at Dee Dee Westbrook, Marqise Lee, and many many others.  Myles Jack did turn out to be a 2nd round bargain from injury though.

Aaron Colvin is another rhat comes to mind.

Lots of good examples in the thread on these roll-of-the-dice-injury-value picks. And we have seen quite a few. 

I feel like it's important to note that the common denominator among GMs in Jax (Baalke has done it with draft and FA acquisitions too) is that teams who are rebuilding have to maximize their cap space and draft capital so these type of calculated risks are a somewhat common practice for teams in that landscape of roster deficiency. 

It's a way to (ostensibly) use an early pick on a coveted candidate and then use the next pick on a "would-be-coveted" candidate. Risky, but when it pays off it can kick start a rebuild. (which has been a nearly perpetual ongoing process for us) 

I realize this stuff is probably obvious, but wanted to get it covered here for perspective.

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Like Jag149 said in the post below you, I don't know if there is a truly "best" player in this draft. I think you could make a case for a handful of guys. Could make a case for Hutch, could make a case for Hamilton, could make a case for Sauce, as well as a few other guys.

I see a more athletic Ryan Kerrigan in Hutch and if Kerrigan is Hutch's floor than that'd be great.

I think Walker, Thibs and Jermaine Johnson all have a higher ceiling than Hutch, but I don't think this franchise is in the position to be gambling on upside at #1.

Nobody ever knows for sure who the best player will be in any draft but I hope our front office and scounts do a good job and don't go into the draft picking where they don't have a guy who they feel will end up the best player in this draft, hopefully they did thier homework and have the right guy at the top.  I disagree that all those guys have a higher ceiling than Hutch, If they feel one of those other guys have a higher ceiling they need to be the pick that guy imo.  With Kerrigan, he was a pretty good player but Hutch is much taller at 6' 7" and more explosive, but he's white so it makes sense.

Hutch is 2 1/2" taller, but Kerrigan has 1 1/2" longer arms. It pretty much splits the difference and I'd rather have arm length over height. Kerrigan was also thicker and stronger. I also don't really think Hutch is all that more explosive. I think he's a little more athletic, but as far as explosive goes, they kind of off set themselves.

Both had 1.61 10 splits. Aidan had a 36" vert and 9'9" broad. Kerrigan had a 33 1/2" vert and 10'2" broad.

It's not because they're both white, but because they both have a similar skill set and they both win the same way. Hands and hustle. Hutch's agility drills tested high, but he seems to play stiffer than those suggest. For whatever reason that is, he looks just like Kerrigan did coming out imo. Neither of them bend the edge, but kinda stutter step around it. Both stout against the run/setting an edge.

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Nobody ever knows for sure who the best player will be in any draft but I hope our front office and scounts do a good job and don't go into the draft picking where they don't have a guy who they feel will end up the best player in this draft, hopefully they did thier homework and have the right guy at the top.  I disagree that all those guys have a higher ceiling than Hutch, If they feel one of those other guys have a higher ceiling they need to be the pick that guy imo.  With Kerrigan, he was a pretty good player but Hutch is much taller at 6' 7" and more explosive, but he's white so it makes sense.

Hutch is 2 1/2" taller, but Kerrigan has 1 1/2" longer arms. It pretty much splits the difference and I'd rather have arm length over height. Kerrigan was also thicker and stronger. I also don't really think Hutch is all that more explosive. I think he's a little more athletic, but as far as explosive goes, they kind of off set themselves.

Both had 1.61 10 splits. Aidan had a 36" vert and 9'9" broad. Kerrigan had a 33 1/2" vert and 10'2" broad.

It's not because they're both white, but because they both have a similar skill set and they both win the same way. Hands and hustle. Hutch's agility drills tested high, but he seems to play stiffer than those suggest. For whatever reason that is, he looks just like Kerrigan did coming out imo. Neither of them bend the edge, but kinda stutter step around it. Both stout against the run/setting an edge.

No doubt Hutch will be good, but just not a superstar. I watched one of the videos promoting him and the impact he did have against Georgia I noticed the QB was moving his way in the pocket as his partner Ojabo was applying pressure or about to beat his man forcing this. Too bad Ojabo got a knee, but then that must make our GM drool.  I got to wondering which one of those was the train engine and which one the caboose?  I think he will struggle early on we will need patience as he develops his pass rush. The high motor description only means he tries hard not that he is athletic. His size is a limiting factor there. He does test well...

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A new broom always sweeps clean.

Nobody ever knows for sure who the best player will be in any draft but I hope our front office and scounts do a good job and don't go into the draft picking where they don't have a guy who they feel will end up the best player in this draft, hopefully they did thier homework and have the right guy at the top.  I disagree that all those guys have a higher ceiling than Hutch, If they feel one of those other guys have a higher ceiling they need to be the pick that guy imo.  With Kerrigan, he was a pretty good player but Hutch is much taller at 6' 7" and more explosive, but he's white so it makes sense.

Hutch is 2 1/2" taller, but Kerrigan has 1 1/2" longer arms. It pretty much splits the difference and I'd rather have arm length over height. Kerrigan was also thicker and stronger. I also don't really think Hutch is all that more explosive. I think he's a little more athletic, but as far as explosive goes, they kind of off set themselves.

Both had 1.61 10 splits. Aidan had a 36" vert and 9'9" broad. Kerrigan had a 33 1/2" vert and 10'2" broad.

It's not because they're both white, but because they both have a similar skill set and they both win the same way. Hands and hustle. Hutch's agility drills tested high, but he seems to play stiffer than those suggest. For whatever reason that is, he looks just like Kerrigan did coming out imo. Neither of them bend the edge, but kinda stutter step around it. Both stout against the run/setting an edge.

Hutch looks much quicker to me than Kerrigan did and his change of direction is also elite which showed in his 3 cone.  On the arm length I don't think it really matters that much for pass rushers like I want may OT's to have, it will be nice for batted balls but his height along with his arm length will likely be higher than most. He wins with hand and hustle, but also pure drive and strength and he will likely only get stronger.  I think he's underrated a bit as a prospect imo even though he's number 1.  I think he has All Pro potential and will make a huge impact year 1 for us.  Most think he can be good but not great, I think he can be great for us and our best DE of All time.  I hope I'm right on that if we take him lol

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Hutch gamed the 3 cone. I still want him at 1, but it's because of everything that isn't his change of direction and bend.

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Hutch gamed the 3 cone. I still want him at 1, but it's because of everything that isn't his change of direction and bend.

Lololol, naw man, Michigan lies about those 3 cones. Couldn't of been more wrong on that one again.  There's a reason he had an elite 3 cone.  3 cone is king when it comes to edge rushers.

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Hutch is 2 1/2" taller, but Kerrigan has 1 1/2" longer arms. It pretty much splits the difference and I'd rather have arm length over height. Kerrigan was also thicker and stronger. I also don't really think Hutch is all that more explosive. I think he's a little more athletic, but as far as explosive goes, they kind of off set themselves.

Both had 1.61 10 splits. Aidan had a 36" vert and 9'9" broad. Kerrigan had a 33 1/2" vert and 10'2" broad.

It's not because they're both white, but because they both have a similar skill set and they both win the same way. Hands and hustle. Hutch's agility drills tested high, but he seems to play stiffer than those suggest. For whatever reason that is, he looks just like Kerrigan did coming out imo. Neither of them bend the edge, but kinda stutter step around it. Both stout against the run/setting an edge.

Hutch looks much quicker to me than Kerrigan did and his change of direction is also elite which showed in his 3 cone.  On the arm length I don't think it really matters that much for pass rushers like I want may OT's to have, it will be nice for batted balls but his height along with his arm length will likely be higher than most. He wins with hand and hustle, but also pure drive and strength and he will likely only get stronger.  I think he's underrated a bit as a prospect imo even though he's number 1.  I think he has All Pro potential and will make a huge impact year 1 for us.  Most think he can be good but not great, I think he can be great for us and our best DE of All time.  I hope I'm right on that if we take him lol

I see a guy that tries really hard.

That's about it. When confronted with an OT that was even close to decent he was stonewalled.

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Hutch gamed the 3 cone. I still want him at 1, but it's because of everything that isn't his change of direction and bend.

Lololol, naw man, Michigan lies about those 3 cones. Couldn't of been more wrong on that one again.  There's a reason he had an elite 3 cone.  3 cone is king when it comes to edge rushers.

Tebow nailed the 3-cone drill.  We just misused him in preseason.  Hopefully, Pederson is as smart as Urban and brings him back along with Carlos Hyde.

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Hutch gamed the 3 cone. I still want him at 1, but it's because of everything that isn't his change of direction and bend.

Lololol, naw man, Michigan lies about those 3 cones. Couldn't of been more wrong on that one again.  There's a reason he had an elite 3 cone.  3 cone is king when it comes to edge rushers.

You watched the video of his 3 cone right?

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Lololol, naw man, Michigan lies about those 3 cones. Couldn't of been more wrong on that one again.  There's a reason he had an elite 3 cone.  3 cone is king when it comes to edge rushers.

You watched the video of his 3 cone right?

Just in case you haven't, here it is. The way he stays very upright and does that tap dance/swivel around the wide cone is not how you are supposed run it. The drill is designed to get low and rip around the wide cone, that's the main part of the drill where you can see bend.

Credit to Hutch for finding a way to exploit the drill, but he didn't show what you are supposed to see from an elite EDGE running an elite 3 cone.

I would still take him 1st too.

https://twitter.com/DFlickDraft/status/1...9718979587

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Dave Caldwell was the king of drafting injured players, thinking we got great value, when in reality all we got were injury-prone players.  Just look at Dee Dee Westbrook, Marqise Lee, and many many others.  Myles Jack did turn out to be a 2nd round bargain from injury though.

Aaron Colvin is another rhat comes to mind.

I agree that these guys listed above represent injury gambles, but considering none were taken any higher than the 2nd round, the ones that were 2nd rounders (Jack and Lee) still wound up being decent values because they were projected as a 2nd rounder anyway (Lee) and Jack was projected as a 1st rounder until the injury was disclosed, and Colvin and Westbrook weren't taken until the 4th round, just about all of those gambles were worth the risk and most paid off decently.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Lololol, naw man, Michigan lies about those 3 cones. Couldn't of been more wrong on that one again.  There's a reason he had an elite 3 cone.  3 cone is king when it comes to edge rushers.

Tebow nailed the 3-cone drill.  We just misused him in preseason.  Hopefully, Pederson is as smart as Urban and brings him back along with Carlos Hyde.

Tebow and Meyer...SMH.  If ther were a Jaguars version of a Bizarro Mt. Rushmore, they would be two of the four.

I look at Urban Meyer and think Bradley is now smiling because as bad as he was, he can now say he wasn't the worst coach in Jaguars history.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

You watched the video of his 3 cone right?

Just in case you haven't, here it is. The way he stays very upright and does that tap dance/swivel around the wide cone is not how you are supposed run it. The drill is designed to get low and rip around the wide cone, that's the main part of the drill where you can see bend.

Credit to Hutch for finding a way to exploit the drill, but he didn't show what you are supposed to see from an elite EDGE running an elite 3 cone.

I would still take him 1st too.

https://twitter.com/DFlickDraft/status/1...9718979587

It's designed to show quickness, agility, and change of direction  which he showed to be elite at.  I couldn't give two [BLEEP] about bend to be honest as long as he's getting to the QB.

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Just in case you haven't, here it is. The way he stays very upright and does that tap dance/swivel around the wide cone is not how you are supposed run it. The drill is designed to get low and rip around the wide cone, that's the main part of the drill where you can see bend.

Credit to Hutch for finding a way to exploit the drill, but he didn't show what you are supposed to see from an elite EDGE running an elite 3 cone.

I would still take him 1st too.

https://twitter.com/DFlickDraft/status/1...9718979587

It's designed to show quickness, agility, and change of direction  which he showed to be elite at.  I couldn't give two [BLEEP] about bend to be honest as long as he's getting to the QB.

It's designed to show that when you do it the right way. It doesn't show that when you do it the way Hutch did. I bet that if we saw Maxx Crosby's 3 cone video it was done in similar fashion since they are the only two people I have ever seen with elite 3 cones that don't show it on tape.

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It's designed to show quickness, agility, and change of direction  which he showed to be elite at.  I couldn't give two [BLEEP] about bend to be honest as long as he's getting to the QB.

It's designed to show that when you do it the right way. It doesn't show that when you do it the way Hutch did. I bet that if we saw Maxx Crosby's 3 cone video it was done in similar fashion since they are the only two people I have ever seen with elite 3 cones that don't show it on tape.

You mean All Pro Maxx Crosby?

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It's designed to show that when you do it the right way. It doesn't show that when you do it the way Hutch did. I bet that if we saw Maxx Crosby's 3 cone video it was done in similar fashion since they are the only two people I have ever seen with elite 3 cones that don't show it on tape.

You mean All Pro Maxx Crosby?

Yes, and Maxx doesn't ever win with bend despite running an elite 3 cone. That's why I said I would still take Hutch 1st overall. I simply still think he doesn't have elite change of movement skills despite the 3 cone. He can still be worth it with size/strength/hands/motor.

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You mean All Pro Maxx Crosby?

Yes, and Maxx doesn't ever win with bend despite running an elite 3 cone. That's why I said I would still take Hutch 1st overall. I simply still think he doesn't have elite change of movement skills despite the 3 cone. He can still be worth it with size/strength/hands/motor.

Calais Campbell didn’t bend well either ?

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"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt