(01-22-2024, 02:27 AM)Dockerill91 Wrote:

(01-21-2024, 09:13 PM)SuperJville Wrote: And did he have some INTs caused by WR mistakes? Sure. But so do all QBs. 
We are acutely aware of Trevor’s but do we know for SURE that other QBs didn’t have similar problems?  I mean just look at today - Baker Mayfield threw a pick in the first quarter which bounced off the WRs hands too. It happens. Trevor isn’t the only one.

Trevor also had some very nice catches that receivers made for him (Zay Jones TD against colts comes to mind). I think over the course of 17 games he probably had an average amount of good plays and bad plays from his receivers compared to the league average. He had a subpar offensive line. 

But his body of work tells me he’s a talented qb that makes plenty of mistakes but has a lot of room to get better. 
He hasn’t arrived - he needs to stay healthy next year play well (throw 25+ TDs and minimize turnovers) and lead us to the playoffs.  Then we give him a massive extension.

But hypothetically (god forbid) he starts
The year slow, maybe gets injured and misses 4-6 weeks - we miss the playoffs, and his stats look similar to this year… would you feel confident that he is without a shadow of a doubt THE guy? Maybe, maybe not.

Is he much better than Jameis Winston? Baker Mayfield? Or Jared Goff?  Those guys are examples of former #1 picks ending up on other somewhere else after the honeymoon phase is over.  Year 4 he is going to be a veteran, he’s got 50 starts under his belt already. What he gives us in year 4 is probably a good representation of who he is and what he will give us going forward. 

I hope it’s a great year, playoffs, and a run. 

If it’s another 9-8, 8-9 season where we miss playoffs and he’s a turnover machine - we may have to think about what else we can do.

Even then I’d still give him a 5th year option but I’m not just throwing too qb money at someone like that - especially when you see guys like Goff and Mayfield.  Just my 2c.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Sorry, again another stat (can you tell I’m a quant?) very interesting one showing turnover throws vs big time throws.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Trevor narrowly showing in the ‘risk taker’ category here, but I believe a 0.2% reduction in turnover worthy throws puts him in the ‘good category’

I know stats aren’t everything, but I believe with these + the eye test it’s just showing this year, we need to support this guy and give him the proper opportunity to succeed, there is enough there and this is just on the back of an injury laden season. Make the Oline better and watch him go off this year.

(Link is Reddit but via PFF)

My view is this, and this thread backs it up, we do not know conclusively what we have in TLaw right now and imo that is the worst place you can be with a QB in the NFL.

Obviously Trevor is not where we hoped he would be, though he has shown rest flashes, but also bad flashes. However there is enough excuses to justify it, these being, poor Oline, mass amount of injuries (due to the previous point), receiver drops (especially turning into interceptions which we led the league in).

Now as we’re coming to the end of the Rookie deal that puts us in a very precarious position, do we pay Trevor (.likely to be around 35-40m per year) or do we have to replace him? Bearing in mind we’re not going to be drafting high enough so we’ll have to part with some picks (sure we could get some back)

So this off season, we heavily support Trevor via free agency and the draft to improve the Oline and if we can WR support with the first 3/4 rounds. (I would like a big DT but we’ll see)

I think we will see an improvement in the D by keeping them off the field less time so keeping fresh,  Walker naturally improving, and hopefully seeing an improve offense making the opposing offense more one dimentional having to chase games.

IMO, you could argue that a 2nd,3rd,4th round pick could save us potentially around 40m a year or multiple first round draft picks, I don’t see any other way of getting more value from those picks.

After years of watching the Boat and Gabby you can't seriously mean this. Most of us already know conclusively what we have with Lawrence, a young, gifted, franchise QB. He's taken our trash and turned it into a division title and a team that will consistently be in the playoff hunt as they are right now. The team has to fix the glaring strength problem; if they do that then this team will be a force for a decade to come.

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