(01-29-2024, 01:52 PM)cland Wrote:

(01-22-2024, 02:27 AM)Dockerill91 Wrote: https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Sorry, again another stat (can you tell I’m a quant?) very interesting one showing turnover throws vs big time throws.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Trevor narrowly showing in the ‘risk taker’ category here, but I believe a 0.2% reduction in turnover worthy throws puts him in the ‘good category’

I know stats aren’t everything, but I believe with these + the eye test it’s just showing this year, we need to support this guy and give him the proper opportunity to succeed, there is enough there and this is just on the back of an injury laden season. Make the Oline better and watch him go off this year.

(Link is Reddit but via PFF)

My view is this, and this thread backs it up, we do not know conclusively what we have in TLaw right now and imo that is the worst place you can be with a QB in the NFL.

Obviously Trevor is not where we hoped he would be, though he has shown rest flashes, but also bad flashes. However there is enough excuses to justify it, these being, poor Oline, mass amount of injuries (due to the previous point), receiver drops (especially turning into interceptions which we led the league in).

Now as we’re coming to the end of the Rookie deal that puts us in a very precarious position, do we pay Trevor (.likely to be around 35-40m per year) or do we have to replace him? Bearing in mind we’re not going to be drafting high enough so we’ll have to part with some picks (sure we could get some back)

So this off season, we heavily support Trevor via free agency and the draft to improve the Oline and if we can WR support with the first 3/4 rounds. (I would like a big DT but we’ll see)

I think we will see an improvement in the D by keeping them off the field less time so keeping fresh,  Walker naturally improving, and hopefully seeing an improve offense making the opposing offense more one dimentional having to chase games.

IMO, you could argue that a 2nd,3rd,4th round pick could save us potentially around 40m a year or multiple first round draft picks, I don’t see any other way of getting more value from those picks.

Great posts SuperJville and Dockerill91, this is exactly how I think the Jags should handle Trevor Lawrence prior to giving him an extension.  This is a bit repetitive, but I think some of the posts that state something similar to "IF he had a better OLine, IF his receivers wouldn't drop the ball, IF his Offensive Coordinator would call better plays, IF he wasn't injured, etc. he would be a top level QB.", are supporting a performance that they have yet to actually see so far.  Now I'm NOT saying that those IFs aren't true, but those supporting a new contract this offseason without actually seeing that performance, are taking a large gamble with the salary cap.

I think at a top level, teams speculate with the NFL draft, teams pay for what they've seen and how they'd fit the team with FAs, and the team better know for sure before giving the largest contract extension they've ever paid.