(04-18-2024, 11:00 AM)cland Wrote:

(04-18-2024, 10:24 AM)g1ml3t Wrote: This year should give us clarity on Trevor one way or another. I think he will succeed, although I wish they had done more to bolster the line and receiving corps (still have the draft obviously). If he has another sub par year the haters will be vindicated and the Jags are back to square one, although we wouldnt be on the hook for franchise qb money.

I post this hesitantly, but I feel like if Trevor has a year similar to last year (with way too many turnovers, etc.) and the Jags miss the playoffs, the board will split into the diehard TLaw fans posting more (and sometimes reasonable) excuses and other posters moving to the "he doesn't quite have it" crowd.  I feel like a broken record, but like you, I hope that the Oline will be bolstered in the draft and post-draft FA to give Lawrence every opportunity to show the best that he has in year 4.  If his best is enough to put him in the top 10 then resign him, if it's not it's time to look at the 5th year option and incoming 2025 QBs.

Everything is sunshine and rainbows when you draft your QB 1st overall or even top 5.  Expectations are he will be one of the best in the league in short order for every franchise that has the opportunity to get their guy so high in the draft and then by extension have exclusive rights to that player for the foreseeable future.  The reality is, the NFL is a tough business and a tough league to win in.  Sunshine and rainbows can get cloudy with a chance of severe weather real quick due to injury, player regression or competition getting better.  There are 21 other guys on the field on any given play that affect the outcome of that play and nothing is certain, only probabilities exist and sometimes luck runs dry for a period of time.

He's not infallible, but there are watchers of the game and watchers of stats and the latter by itself won't tell you if someone has it or not.  Sure, some baseline level stats should be there for any QB in this league, but the rest of the evaluation process should be done with your eyes watching and taking note of a guy going through progressions, keeping his eyes downfield, making tight window throws, making generally good decisions, hitting guys in stride, throwing guys open, having good pocket awareness, being able to escape pressure and being able to still throw wherever he wants/needs to while on the run.  There are probably a few additional factors I've missed there, but my eyes tell me he has all of that.  I believe that real football people in the league share that assessment of him.  I think that will clearly show through this year and put those that are more casual in their fandom or more reliant on stat sheets at ease, but injuries happen and 17 game seasons are long so there is absolutely a scenario or scenarios where that doesn't happen.

That said, all of the above applies to your guy as well.  Sunshine and rainbows can turn to severe weather real quick.  Just be prepared for such when it happens.  Brady/Mahomes type long-term dominance should be viewed as almost unattainable and I hesitate to even include Mahomes name there because 5 years is only a quarter of Brady's tenure in the league so there is still a long way to go to be comparable as far as long-term dominance is concerned and I think the level of QB play in the AFC is or will soon be much more competitive than anything Brady had to deal with.

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